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Grains, oilseeds have more losses to cap off week

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling, furthering the week’s losses. Near-term harvest conditions look good for most of the U.S. and South American weather is favorable. Safras e Mercado estimates Brazil’s crop at 144.7 million tons, a jump of 2.5 million from the prior guess. CONAB’s next projection for Brazil is out Thursday the 11th. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 7% of Argentina’s soybean crop is planted, slower than average. Stateside, for 2022, the USDA early baseline preview sees 2022 U.S. soybean acreage at 87.5 million acres, compared to 87.2 million in 2021. Global vegetable oil prices have moved lower on signs of slowing demand, adding to the session’s pressure. Soybean oil and meal were down Friday, also seeing follow through selling. The USDA’s attaché in China estimates 2021/22 soybean imports at 101 million tons, compared to 99.762 million in 2020/21. It remains to be seen how much of that business will go to the U.S. Brazilian soybean planting is ahead of average, which should lead to earlier availability on the export market, and winter soybeans from Brazil are at a discount to U.S. prices.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling, cementing the lower weekly finish. Corn is also watching U.S. harvest activity and the planting and development conditions in Argentina and Brazil ahead of the full emergence of La Nina. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 28% of Argentina’s crop is planted, slower than average, with 82% of the crop called good to excellent. The USDA’s next supply, demand, and production update is out on Tuesday the 9th. The USDA previewed February’s full baseline projections Friday, with 2022 corn acreage seen at 92 million acres, compared to 93.3 million in 2021. Early expectations for Ukraine’s 2022 corn crop have a reduction in planted area because of higher domestic and gas prices. Ethanol futures were unchanged.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, with December Chicago and Kansas City down modestly for the week and December Minneapolis dropping more than $.40. The complex continued its correction, even with a tighter global supply and a lower private export estimate for Russia. SovEcon sees Russia’s wheat exports for 2021/22 at 34 million tons, down 300,000 from the last guess. Heavy rain in parts of Australia is expected to impact crop quality to some degree. Australia’s ABARES estimates new crop production at 32.6 million tons. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 10% of Argentina’s wheat crop is harvested, with 46% rated good to excellent. The USDA’s early preview for the baseline projections has U.S. wheat acreage for 2022 at 49 million, compared to 46.7 million in 2021. The USDA’s attaché in India estimates 2021/22 wheat exports at 5 million tons, compared to 3.5 million in 2020/21, due to a larger than expected domestic surplus.

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