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Grains, oilseeds gain after USDA reports
Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying, rallying after the USDA released the new supply, demand, and production numbers. The USDA lowered its production and yield estimates, while ending stocks were up less than expected. Argentina’s soybean crop guess was down, as were exports, and while Brazilian production was unchanged, exports were up on the month. AgRural says 67% of Brazil’s soybean crop is planted, ahead of a year ago. The USDA did lower the import estimate for China 1 million tons to 100 million. World ending stocks were modestly lower than last month. The USDA’s weekly export sales numbers are pushed back to Friday. Soybean meal and oil were higher, with ending stocks unchanged from October.
Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying, recovering after the reports from the earlier losses. Corn production was up slightly from October, while ending stocks were down on solid ethanol demand. The USDA left Brazil’s corn crop and exports steady on the month, while increasing the outlook on both for Argentina. According to AgRural, 75% of the first corn crop in Brazil has been planted, ahead of average, but with questions about second crop planted area due to input cost concerns. CONAB’s next estimate for Brazil is out Thursday. Planting in Argentina is slower than average due to dry weather earlier in the season. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and supply numbers are out Wednesday.
The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying, with contracts moving from mixed to higher following the USDA reports. U.S. wheat ending stocks were up modestly, while world wheat ending stocks were down. Domestically, the adjustments were lower imports, exports, and feed use against an increase in seed use. Globally, the USDA lowered production for the European Union, but raised the guess for Russia, and upped exports for India, the E.U., Russia, and Ukraine. The trade is also monitoring conditions U.S. winter wheat planting conditions along with weather ahead of harvest in Argentina and Australia. The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production estimates is out December 9th. The USDA’s attaché in Canada has 2021/22 wheat production at 21.715 million tons, compared to 35.183 million in 2020/21 due to weather issues, especially drought, impacting the spring wheat crop. Exports this marketing year are expected to be 15.7 million tons, compared to 26.404 million last marketing year. The USDA’s attaché for Morocco says it suspended export taxes on common wheat and durum effective November 1st until repealed by Rabat.
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