Market News

Grain and oilseed ending stocks smaller than expected

USDA's 2008/09 ending stocks estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat all came out down from March and a little bit smaller than expected. That's on slightly betterthan anticipated demand from a number of sectors, especially exports.

Don Roose, President of U.S. Commodities says that with soybean supplies still at historically tight levels, farmers could choose to plant more beans this year and has $9.75 per bushel on November beans asthe price that would most likely lead to an increase in acreage.

2008/09 U.S. wheat ending stocks were reported at 696 million bushels, compared to 712 million in March's report and 306 million for 2007/08. Before the report, the average guess was 697 million bushels,with the range of estimates running from 666 million to 727 million bushels. The USDA raised the import projection 5 million bushels to 125 million, bringing the total supply to 2.930 billion bushels. On the demand side, the seed use figure is pegged at 79 million bushels, up 1 million from lastmonth and feed and residual use was placed at 250 million, compared to 230 million a month ago, pushing the domestic use total to 1.254 billion bushels; with exports left unchanged at 980 million bushels, total use is seen at 2.234 billion bushels. The average 2008/09 farm price is estimated at$6.80 to $6.90 per bushel, compared to March's range of $6.70 to $6.90 and the 2007/08 estimate of $6.48.

2008/09 U.S. corn ending stocks were placed at 1.700 billion bushels, compared to 1.740 billion a month ago and 1.624 billion a year ago. Prior to the report,estimates ranged from 1.675 billion to 1.954 billion bushels, for an average of 1.731 billion bushels. There were no changes to the supply side of the balance sheet. Feed and residual use was pegged at 5.350 billion bushels, up 50 million from March while food, seed and industrial use was placed at4.990 billion, 10 million less than last month. With those adjustments, domestic use is now seen at 10.340 billion bushels and total use is projected at 12.040 billion bushels. The average 2008/09 farm price is seen at $4.00 to $4.40 per bushel, compared to $3.90 to $4.30 in March and the 2007/08average of $4.20.

2008/09 U.S. soybean ending stocks came out at 165 million bushels, compared to March's 185 million and the 2007/08 estimate of 205 million bushels. Following a very slight adjustment in imports, the total supply is now pegged at 3.176 billion bushels.The crush was lowered 5 million bushels to 1.635 million while exports were raised 25 million to 1.210 billion bushels. Seed use was increased 4 million bushels to 94 million, taking the total use projection to 3.011 billion bushels. The 2008/09 average farm price is seen at $9.25 to $10.05 perbushel, compared to March's $8.85 to $9.85 and the 2007/08 estimate of $10.10.

2008/09 world wheat ending stocks were reported at 158.10 million tons, compared to March's 155.85 million. World production was pegged at 682.05 million tons, down a little more than 2million on the month as a bigger crop in Brazil is offset by a smaller crop in North Africa. Exports are projected at 128.04 million tons, compared to 125.34 million in March.

2008/09 world corn ending stocks came out at 143.33 million tons, compared to 144.62 million amonth ago. Total global production is seen at 786.45 million tons, compared to 787.10 million in March. Exports for 2008/09 are pegged at 75.31 million tons, compared to 74.08 million last month at this time.

2008/09 world soybean ending stocks were pegged at 45.84 milliontons, compared to March's 49.95 million. World production came out at 218.76 million tons, compared to 223.27 million this time last year, following a 4 million ton cut in the Argentina projection, from 43 million to 39 million. Total global exports are placed at 74.08 million tons, compared tothe March estimate of 74.81 million.