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Corn up, soybeans mixed, watching development weather

Soybeans were mixed, mostly higher, on bear spreading. There was scattered rain over the weekend in parts of the region, generally not enough to do much about drought conditions in many areas. That’s likely having at least some impact on early development. Cooler than normal temperatures were reported Monday morning, including record lows in parts of Iowa. The USDA says 59% of U.S. soybeans are rated good to excellent, down 3% on the week, with 96% planted and 86% emerged, both ahead of the respective five-year averages. Soybean meal was up on commercial buying and bean oil was mixed on bear spreading. U.S. soybean export inspections were down on the week and year, mainly to Italy and Mexico, with just a token amount headed to China. Early in the final quarter of 2022/23, inspections have slowed down, widening the gap with the 2021/22 pace. Brazil continues to hold most of the global soybean market share, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil set for Tuesday the 13th.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying. There’s a chance for more rain this weekend in some areas, which could be followed by a heat ridge over the Midwest. As of Sunday, 61% of U.S. corn is in good to excellent condition, 3% lower, and 93% has emerged, compared to 87% on average. It’s early, but some private firms are already lowering their yield projections, with the next set of supply, demand, and production numbers out July 12th. Export inspections were below the previous week and a year ago, primarily to Mexico and Japan, with the overall pace behind what’s needed to meet USDA projections for the current marketing year. Second crop harvest is ongoing in Brazil. According to reports from Argentina, corn and soybean trucks headed to key ports are at a more than 20-year low.

The wheat complex was mixed. Chicago and Kansas City were watching winter wheat harvest activity and Minneapolis was monitoring spring wheat development conditions. For winter wheat, 38% of the crop is called good to excellent, up 2%, while 89% has headed and 8% is harvested, both close to normal for this time of year. For spring wheat, 60% of the crop is in good to excellent shape, 4% lower, with 97% planted, matching the five-year average, and 87% has emerged, compared to 87% on average. A big question for spring wheat is how many acres were actually planted this year, with the USDA’s 2023 acreage totals out on the 30th, along with quarterly grain stocks. The trade is also keeping an eye on planting and development conditions in Argentina, Canada, Europe, and Russia. Coceral has lowered its soft wheat production guess for Europe due to dry weather. Export demand is slow with Russia controlling most of the market because of a significant price advantage. U.S. wheat export inspections were below the prior week and last year, with the Philippines and Yemen topping the list.

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