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Corn, soybeans mostly lower, watching weather

Soybeans were mostly lower on spread trade and profit taking. Parts of the region got rain over the weekend but will need more during the key development stages. The USDA says 60% of U.S. soybeans are rated good to excellent, steady on the week, with 91% of the crop blooming, compared to the five-year average of 89%, and 72% at the pod setting stage, compared to 68% on average. Unknown destinations bought 104,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans, the third business day in a row with an announced sale. The running total is 535,000 tons, most of that to unknown destinations, with the rest to China. Export inspections were down on the week and the year, but with less than a month remaining in 2020/21, the pace remains well ahead of 2019/20. The top destinations were Mexico and Japan, with just 490 tons headed to China. According to trade data, July soybean exports by Brazil were 8.66 million tons, a decrease of 21.78% on the month and 13% on the year because of slower demand from China, due in part to poor domestic crush margins. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was mostly sharply lower, adjusting spreads.

Corn was mixed, mostly weak, adjusting spreads. Corn is watching the weather, with near-term forecasts showing better rain chances this week in eastern growing areas than the west. The USDA’s weekly crop numbers were expected to show a slight decline to a slight rise in the condition rating. As of Sunday, 64% of U.S. corn is in good to excellent shape, up 2%, with 95% of the crop silking, compared to 94% on average, 56% at the dough making stage, compared to the usual rate of 51%, and 8% at the dent stage, compared to 11% normally in early August. Corn export inspections were below the previous week and a year ago, but this marketing year continues to be way ahead of last marketing year. Mexico and China were the main destinations. Russia’s corn exports for July are seen at 68,000 tons, compared to 93,000 in June. The trade is also watching second crop harvest activity in Brazil, with CONAB’s next set of estimates out Tuesday morning. Ethanol futures were unchanged.

The wheat complex was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. The trade is monitoring harvest activity, expecting winter wheat to wrap up soon, along with a good advance for spring wheat. For winter wheat, 95% of the crop is harvested, compared to 91% on average, with 14 of the 18 top production states falling in the 95% to 100% range. For spring wheat, 11% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, up 1% on the week, and 38% of the crop is harvested, compared to the five-year average of 21%. The USDA’s new supply, demand, and production numbers are out Thursday at Noon Eastern/11 AM Central and will be watched closely for any changes to U.S. or international production projections, including potential reductions for the U.S., Canada, and Russia. Wheat export inspections were up on the week and the year, Japan and Mexico led the way, but just over two months in, 2021/22 continues to trail 2020/21. Russia’s July wheat exports are estimated at 1.46 million tons, compared to 1.756 million in June. Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of soft wheat from an unspecified origin.

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