Market News

Corn down, soybeans mixed, expecting non-threatening weather

Soybeans were mixed, with nearby months down and deferred contracts up. Weekend weather was generally good in many key U.S. growing areas and conditions this week should mostly be non-threatening. Parts of Illinois and Iowa have received some rain, but could use more. The USDA says 97% of U.S. soybeans are blooming, matching the five year average pace, and 87% are at the pod setting stage, compared to 85% on average. 60% of U.S. beans are in good to excellent shape, up 1% on the week. Unknown destinations bought 463,000 tons of U.S. soybeans and China purchased 198,000 tons of U.S. beans, with both sales for 2017/18 delivery. The 2017/18 marketing year for soybeans, and corn, starts September 1st. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher, adjusting product spreads. Bean oil picked up additional support from a new contract high in October palm oil. The 2017/18 marketing year for soybean products starts October 1st.

Corn was modestly lower on commercial and technical selling, but did finish closer to the session’s highs than the lows. Corn’s also watching the weather, especially the dry parts with a chance for rain this week. A major crop tour getting underway this week and early expectations are for a big, but highly variable crop. The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers are out September 12th. As of Sunday, 76% of U.S. corn is at the dough making stage, compared to 77% typically this time of year, and 29% has dented, compared to 35% on average. 62% of the crop is in good to excellent shape, unchanged from a week ago, but with 1% moving from good to excellent. Ethanol futures were futures were higher. South Korea bought 55,000 tons of optional origin corn and Taiwan is tendering for 130,000 tons of corn, also optional origin. NAFTA renegotiations are set to resume September 1st in Mexico. AgRural says 89% of Brazil’s second corn crop is harvested. According to Brazil’s Ag Ministry, via Allendale, 24% of that nation’s corn and soybeans now ship out of ports in the northern part of the country, compared to 8% five years ago.

The wheat complex was lower on commercial and technical selling. Forecasts have more soil recharging rain the southern Plains ahead of winter wheat planting. This year’s U.S. winter wheat harvest has officially wrapped up. For spring wheat, 58% of the crop is harvested, compared to 51% on average, and 34% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, 1% above last week, with persistent drought conditions expected to continue for the foreseeable future. A big bearish factor, if not the big bearish factor, for the U.S. wheat trade remains the record world supply. Saudi Arabia bought 490,000 tons of milling wheat, reportedly from North and South America, the European Union, and Australia, and Taiwan picked up 98,850 tons of U.S. wheat. Iraq is tendering for 50,000 tons of optional origin wheat. According to Russia’s Ag Ministry, 37% of that nation’s summer grain harvest is complete, compared to 47% a year ago. That’s at least partially due to a slow start to harvest because of rainfall, in addition to an expansion in planted area.