Market News

Corn, soybeans down, watching crop weather

Soybeans were modestly lower on commercial and technical selling. Planting and emergence are both ahead of average and the USDA’s condition rating improved to 72% good to excellent. Near-term development conditions look mostly non-threatening to favorable, but there will need to be an assessment of crops where Cristobal caused heavy rainfall and in some cases flooding. At least 10 million acres of U.S. soybeans remain unplanted, compared to the USDA’s March projection. No new soybean export sales have been announced yet this week. China and unknown destinations both bought a lot of U.S. beans last week, but China is also still buying from Brazil, despite the U.S. advantage in price. New USDA supply and demand estimates are out Thursday, along with the weekly export sales numbers. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling. U.S. corn planting is nearly wrapped up, emergence is faster than normal, and 75% of the crop is rated good to excellent. At 97% planted, that still leaves about 3 million intended acres unplanted and replanting might be necessary in some areas. The USDA’s planted area totals are out on the 30^th, along with quarterly stocks data. AgRural lowered its’ projection for Brazil’s second corn crop to 65.3 million tons, citing drought in that nation’s south-central growing region. The trade is also watching harvest activity in Argentina, which along with Brazil and Ukraine, has become a major export competitor. Brazil’s sales could be limited not only by a smaller than expected crop, but also the continued spread of COVID-19. Ethanol futures were lower. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol supply and production numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was mixed with Chicago and Kansas City down and Minneapolis mostly steady. 7% of the winter wheat crop is harvested with another mixed week for hard and soft red winter conditions. Soft red winter conditions improved a little more than hard red winter declined, leaving winter wheat with a slight week to week improvement. U.S. spring wheat is nearly fully planted and the crop is in very good shape. Russia’s wheat prices have moved higher on crop weather concerns and the probability of a smaller crop, which could help U.S. sales, at least to some extent. Coceral estimates the European Union’s soft wheat crop at 129.7 million tons, compared to the month ago guess of 135.4 million and the year ago total of 146.8 million tons.