Corn soars on development weather concerns
Soybeans were higher on speculative and technical buying but closed below the session highs after failing to find interest above resistance. U.S. soybean conditions did improve over the past week but remain widely mixed and near historical lows as the crop enters a key growth period. Most of the region is expected to see a warmer, drier pattern into August, which is the critical month for soybeans. The USDA’s expected to trim its record yield outlook in the near future, possibly as soon as the next set of supply, demand, and production numbers, out August 11th. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads.
Corn was sharply higher on speculative and technical buying. National corn conditions were up on the week ahead of that turn to a potentially more stressful widespread weather pattern. Over the next few days, more rain is possible in parts of the central and southern Corn Belt, but the coverage and totals are uncertain. Northern areas are generally dry as that part of the crop goes into pollination. As drought persists in some key growing areas, it’s increasingly unlikely there’s a record U.S. corn crop this year, but there’s always a chance for a surprise. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and supply numbers are out Wednesday. The trade is also monitoring the second crop harvest in Brazil.
The wheat complex was mostly higher. The winter wheat harvest is slower than average with more delays in activity probable over the next few days. Minneapolis wheat was mixed with a slight improvement in the spring wheat rating but with concerns about dry conditions in parts of that region. Fallout from the apparent end of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is ongoing. A cargo insurance policy covering Ukraine’s grain shipments has been suspended, while Russia claims it’s unsafe to operate in the Black Sea without a guarantee of security from Moscow because of Ukrainian military activity, even as it attacks Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. Poland says it will help Ukraine export grain through other routes in hopes of alleviating some of the impact on global food security. Russia continues to hold a big advantage on the wheat export market due to price. UkrAgroConsult sees Russia’s 2023/24 wheat exports at 47 million tons, up 2 million from the prior guess.