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Corn down, soybeans, wheat mixed ahead of USDA reports

Soybeans were mixed on bull spreading. Beans were watching the weather while getting ready for Friday’s planted area and quarterly stocks numbers. Those reports are out at Noon Eastern/11 Central. Weather-wise, even if the critical month for beans is August, soil moisture improvements are definitely welcome, but that has some with high winds and hail in parts of the region, causing at least some damage. Old and new crop weekly export sales numbers were bearish. The top old crop buyers were Mexico and unknown destinations, while the leader for new crop was Mexico with a net cancellation by China, but those sales were minimal. Brazil continues to hold most of the global market share due to a price advantage. Soybean meal was up on an oversold bounce, while bean oil was mixed on bull spreading. Minimal first notice day deliveries are expected on July soybeans Friday.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn was watching the weather, with rain in some of the drier areas of the Corn Belt this week and the potential for more this weekend. Still, there has been some damage done from this round of storms and it’ll take a sustained shift in the pattern to make much of an overall change in regional drought conditions. It’s likely at least some of this year’s production potential has been lost and that won’t be fully answered until this fall. Old crop corn export sales were up sharply on the week, but lower than average, mainly to Japan and Mexico, with a cancellation by unknown destinations. Routine new crop sales were mostly to Mexico and Honduras. The trade was also preparing for the USDA’s quarterly supply and planted area numbers. The trade is expected light first notice deliveries against July corn. Brazil’s second crop harvest is ongoing and fighting for space with their recent record soybean crop.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago and Kansas City down and Minneapolis up. Wheat was watching the mixed winter wheat harvest progress and spring wheat development weather. The trade was also waiting for Friday’s quarterly and annual USDA numbers. Export sales were up on the week but continue to reflect the slow demand, with U.S. sales only up slightly on the week, mainly to Japan and Mexico. Russia holds a massive portion of the global market. Russia will have a smaller crop this year, which could blunt some of their price advantage, and Moscow’s potential exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative might end up having some geopolitical ramifications, especially if the war with Ukraine continues to ramp up. Russia is reportedly having a significant impact on Ukraine shipping grain out of the Black Sea region, even from the ports agreed upon under the pact. The USDA’s attaché in Australia projects the 2023/24 wheat crop at 29 million tons, well below the 2023/24 record of 39.685 million tons as weather shifts from a La Nina pattern to El Nino. Exports next marketing year are expected to be 21 million tons, a drop of 10 million from this marketing year.

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