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Corn down, soybeans mostly weak, despite harvest issues

Soybeans were mostly modestly lower on spread trade and profit taking. The trade expects another slower week of harvest activity, with wet weather and cooler temperatures in some areas over the next few days. The USDA says 94% of U.S. soybeans are dropping leaves, compared to the five-year average of 97%, and 46% of the crop is harvested, compared to 64% on average, with 54% of the crop in good to excellent condition, steady with a week ago. There’s more talk about China buying U.S. beans, but there was no confirmation of any new sales to kick off the week. “Phase One” of the U.S./China trade deal has not been signed and tariffs remain in place, with the world’s largest economies expected to resume high-level, face-to-face negotiations in mid-November. Soybean meal was modestly lower and bean oil was modestly higher, adjusting product spreads. Weekly export inspections were bullish. AgRural says 21% of Brazil’s 2019/20 soybean crop is planted, compared to 34% a year ago, with weekend rainfall not meeting most expectations. One of the key states, Mato Grosso, is close to average, but other states are dragging the national number down. Planting in Argentina is also being affected by dry weather, in addition to political uncertainties, but there is at least some rain in most forecasts.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Corn continues to watch U.S. harvest progress, expecting another slow week in many key U.S. growing areas. As of Sunday, 86% of U.S. corn is mature, compared to 97% normally, and 30% is harvested, compared to the usual pace of 47%, with 56% of the crop rated good to excellent, up 1% on the week. Corn is also watching planting in South America, especially the impact of slow soybean planting on Brazil’s second crop, the larger of the two and the source of most of their exports. Export demand continues to be slow because of competition from South America and Ukraine, reflected in the weekly inspections report. Sorghum inspections were bullish. Ethanol futures were lower. U.S. sorghum and ethanol, along with DDGS, are also rumored purchase targets for Beijing. Lower feed demand because of African swine fever has pressured China’s domestic corn prices. Corn is also waiting for advancement of the USMCA, with Mexico the leading buyer of U.S. corn.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling. The trade largely ignored expected winter wheat planting and spring wheat harvest delays in the U.S. and Canada. Some of that rainfall will be a long-term benefit for winter wheat. For winter wheat, 77% of the crop is planted, slightly ahead of normal, and 53% has emerged, matching the usual pace. For spring wheat, 96% of the crop is harvested; that’s usually complete by now. It was another solid week for inspections and export demand has been good but is showing signs of slowing as the world harvest advances, with losses in Argentina, Australia, and Canada canceled out by bigger crops in the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine. Allendale reports Egypt’s supply ministry says it has enough wheat to last until February 2020. DTN says Saudi Arabia bought 605,000 tons of wheat from the U.S., South America, and the Black Sea region, and Algeria is tendering for 50,000 tons of wheat.

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