Big gains for soybeans, corn, and wheat
Soybeans were sharply higher on speculative and technical buying. Forecasts for most of the region this week are hot and dry, potentially stretching into early August, the critical month for most of the U.S. soybean crop. The USDA says 54% of U.S. soybeans are in good to excellent condition, down 1%, with 70% blooming and 35% at the pod setting stage, both ahead of their respective five-year averages. China bought 121,000 tons of new crop U.S. soybeans ahead of the open. Weekly soybean export inspections were up on the week, down on the year, primarily to Germany and Mexico, with a routine amount headed to China. Brazil continues to dominate the soybean market. Soybean meal and oil were supported by the supply and demand implications of a smaller U.S. soybean crop. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production estimates is out August 11th.
Corn was sharply higher on speculative and technical buying. Near-term development conditions are potentially stressful in most of the Corn Belt, with most of the crop in key phases of development. As of Sunday, 57% of U.S. corn is called good to excellent, unchanged from last week, with 68% silking and 16% at the dough making stage, both slightly faster than normal. There is an improved chance of rain for parts of the northern Corn Belt starting next week, but that will actually have to materialize. U.S. corn export inspections were below a week ago and a year ago, mainly to Mexico and Honduras. Brazil continues to hold onto a large chunk of the global corn market with their record expected second crop harvest ongoing. China’s Ag Ministry says there has been some rain in northeastern corn growing areas, bringing some relief to the crop, but more will be needed.
The wheat complex was sharply higher on speculative and technical buying. Russia is continuing to attack Ukraine’s ports and infrastructure on the Black Sea and the Danube River, disrupting global grain trade. For now, Russia continues to hold most of the global wheat market due to a significant price advantage. Near-term forecasts have more hot, dry weather in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada. For spring wheat, 49% of the crop is rated good to excellent, 2% lower, with 94% headed, compared to the usual rate of 93%. For winter wheat, 68% of the crop is harvested, compared to 77% on average. U.S. wheat inspections were higher than last week, but lower than last year, with the Philippines and Mexico topping the list.