Inside D.C.

Trump’s 2020 Reality Check

Even with the dog days of upon us and the official end of summer looming, it’s apparent we’re in full-out 2020 election mode, certainly among the Democrats and increasingly by the White House.  For better or worse, this colors everything that will happen in Washington, DC for the next 15 months.

So far, four of the Democrat presidential candidate wannabes have bailed on the process, the latest being Sen. Kirsten Gillebrand (D, NY) – “I know it’s just not my time” – who joins former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and Rep. Seth Moulton (D, MA) on the political sidelines.  All four simply could ignite the imaginations of enough voters nor raise enough money to continue their quest.  Of the original 24 hopefuls, there remain seven others who are in similar fundraising and popularity straits.  The Democrat National Committee’s September debate in Houston will likely be a one-night event with only 10 candidates on stage, which is a blessing in and of itself.

President Trump, who just three months ago sounded as if he’d convinced at least himself he’d skate to renomination – what Republican would dare challenge this sitting GOP president? – and a second term, is watching his list of challengers expand as the Democrat list contracts.

This week, former Tea Party favorite, former Trump supporter and former one-term Republican House member Joe Walsh of Illinois announced his challenge to Trump’s reign, calling the president unfit and unelectable.  “He’s nuts. He’s erratic,” said Walsh during an appearance on ABC’s “This Week” last Sunday. 

Walsh, who many within his own party contend could be painted with the same brush, joins former Massachusetts GOP Gov. William Weld who’s already announced his Trump challenge.  Insiders say former state governor and former Rep. Mark Sanford (R, SC) is preparing his plans for Trump primary challenges, as well.   There will no doubt be others as well.

While the Democrats decide whether age, race, experience, intelligence, lifestyle or “boldness of ideas” – or a combination of one or more – will determine their candidate, the GOP learned in 2016, nothing is a done deal until the deal is done, meaning the votes are counted and the name is announced.

It’s fair to say Trump is probably a bit mystified right now why every voter in rural America – the “fly-over” states – is not wearing a Trumpian cap or t-shirt.  However, administration actions of late are equally mystifying to rural voters given Trump’s repeated declaration of affection for all things American agriculture.

The president will likely kick off his second run for the White House soon by hauling it to somewhere in the Midwest, scrambling to make nice with farmers and biofuels makers by announcing some sort of Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)/small refinery exemption (SRE) reinvention. 

“The Farmers are going to be so happy when they see what we are doing for Ethanol, not even including the E-15, year around, which is already done,” Trump tweeted.  “It will be a giant package, get ready!  At the same time, I was able to save the small refineries from certain closing.  Great for all!”

Corn growers, soybean farmers and ethanol/biodiesel makers still can’t figure out why the president personally approved EPA’s recent decision to grant 31 more SREs – expect some approvals to be withdrawn – a move some producers see as a sell-out to the petroleum industry.  EPA steadfastly refuses to reallocate the lost gallons of demand in calculating mandated RFS levels, pouring salt in a very open wound.   

Then there’s the fate of the U.S.-China tit-for-tat over tariffs and the seemingly unending downside economic pressure this action takes on farm income.  I won’t suck up space trying to explain the most recent tariff actions by Trump and the retaliation by China, but suffice to say, we’re threatening to tariff 100% of Chinese exports to this country.  Right now, our trade guys are talk to China’s trade guys on how to restart the talks. 

USDA projects agricultural exports to China will hit $7.5 billion in FY2020, a bit higher than last year. It’s good to remember U.S. exports to China in FY2018 were $16.3 billion, and in FY2017 those sales totaled $21.8 billion.

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, at this week’s Farm Progress Show in Illinois, told his audience, “The ball is in China’s court,” saying a prospective trade treaty was 90% locked up in April, but that political pressure from China’s hardliners “complicated” that country’s process.  He took a call from the president while on stage at the show, and Trump, after yet again professing undying love for farmers, explained he could do a quick deal with China and be applauded for it, “or I could do it the right way and do it the way we’re doing it now.” 

“This is how I negotiate, and it’s worked very well for me,” Trump later told a reporter who’d asked how much more economic pain could be expected.  As said, it’s about 15 months until November, 2020. 

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