On feed numbers expected to be down on the year

Friday’s USDA cattle on feed report could show some major categories at all-time lows, reflecting the extremely tight supply.

According to Allendale, August placements are expected to be down 5.2% on the year, the lowest since the series of reports started in 1996. Allendale adds feeding margins on outgoing cattle have been positive for 10 consecutive months.

Marketings could be down 1.1% on the year and the total number of cattle on feed as of September 1 is expected to decline 2.6%.

The report is out Friday, September 19 at 3 PM Eastern/2 PM Central.

Thursday midday cash livestock markets

So far today there are no bids on the cattle, but packer inquiry is expected to improve as the day progresses. Asking prices are around 164.00 in the South, and 253.00 to 255.00 in the North. Given the fact week to date cattle slaughter is running only 3,000 behind last week, short bought cattle buyers are set to be just as hungry today and or tomorrow as they were last week.

Boxed beef cutout values are mixed with the choice down .76 at 245.15, and select up .49 at 232.81.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Hub City Livestock at Aberdeen, South Dakota totaled 3274 head. Compared to last week, steers were mostly 2.00 to 4.00 higher. Feeder heifers over 850 pounds steady to 3.00 higher with instances of 9.00 higher on 850 to 900 pound offerings. There was good to very good demand for all classes of feeders with the best demand for long consignments of light fleshed cattle off grass. Feeder steers, medium and large 1 averaging 873 pounds brought 235.53 per hundredweight. 906 pound heifers averaged 213.27.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota and Western direct trade areas are not reported due to confidentiality. Eastern markets are .59 lower with a weighted average of 99.31 on a carcass basis. Nationally the direct trade is 2.77 lower at 100.24. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady from 90.00 to 97.00. Midwest hogs on a live basis are steady from 65.00 to 70.00 live.

Iowa barrows and gilts averaged 281.9 pounds last week, 0.2 pounds lighter than the prior week, yet still 11 pounds greater than 2013.

The pork carcass cutout value is 1.52 higher at 111.63 FOB plant.

Pork’s farm-to-retail spread in August jumped to $2.80, 13% greater than July and 10% larger than 2013. Retail pork margins are far superior to their beef counterparts, suggesting that grocers are far more likely to feature and promote pork cuts.

Lean hogs settle lower but cattle futures end higher

The feedlot cattle trade was very quiet with little indication of pending activity. There were a few bids in Nebraska at 245.00 on a dressed basis. Asking prices are holding around 164.00 in the South and 253.00 to 255.00 in the North. Business is not expected before tomorrow or Friday. The kill was estimated at 112,000 head, 2,000 less than last week and 12,000 smaller than 2013.

Boxed beef cutout values were weak to lower on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings. Choice beef was down 1.73 at 245.91, and select ended .64 lower at 232.32.

Live cattle contracts settled 50 to 145 points higher on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday. The early week pressure in futures seemed to clear a bearish tone in the live cattle complex even though little encouragement was seen in beef values and the inability to increase overall wholesale prices. It is uncertain just how much additional longer-term support this rally will be able to establish over the next couple of trading sessions. October settled .82 higher at 157.92 and December 160.00, up 1.12.

Feeder cattle ended the session 70 to 235 points higher. Aggressive buyer support quickly stepped back into the futures market. Traders sought additional direction from the entire cattle complex. September settled .70 higher at 230.30, up .70, and October was 2.22 higher at 228.10.

[Read more...]

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: September 17, 2014

Dec. corn closed at $3.41 and 3/4, down 2 cents
Nov. soybeans closed at $9.82 and 1/2, up 1 and 3/4 cents
Oct. soybean meal closed at $336.40, down $1.90
Oct. soybean oil closed at 33.39, up 58 points
Dec. wheat closed at $4.99 and 1/4, up 3 cents
Oct. live cattle closed at $157.02, up 82 cents
Oct. lean hogs closed at $105.10, down $1.77
Oct. crude oil closed at $94.42, down 46 cents
Dec. cotton closed at 65.68, up 13 points
Oct. Class III milk closed at $24.70, up 51 cents
Oct. gold closed at $1,234.40, down 80 cents
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,156.85, up 24.88 points

Wednesday midday cash livestock markets

There is not a lot of action in cattle country on Wednesday, with bids and asking prices still not fully established. A few asking prices are being reported by DTN at 164.00 in the South, and 253.00 to 255.00 in the North. With early week chain speed running close to last week, there is little reason to assume cattle buyers will command significantly more leverage than they had late last week.

Boxed beef cutout values were mixed in the morning report with the choice 246.11, down 1.53, and select 233.21, up .25.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Ozarks’ Regional Stockyards at West Plains, Missouri totaled 4267 head on Tuesday. Feeder steers trended uneven from 5.00 lower to 5.00 higher while feeder heifers were 2.00 to 5.00 higher. Yearling steers and heifers trended steady to 3.00 higher. Demand was very good on a heavy supply. Feeder steers medium and large 1 averaging 516 pounds brought 267.18 per hundredweight. 525 pound heifers averaged 247.60.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade .86 lower with a weighted average of 103.76 on a carcass basis, Western hogs 103.75, down .39, and the East is not reported due to confidentiality. The Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady from 90.00 to 97.00. Midwest hogs are 4.00 lower to 3.00 higher from 65.00 to 70.00 live.

The pork carcass cutout value is down 1.46 at 109.29 FOB plant.

The fact that market watchers saw another round of firming cash bids in hog country on Tuesday is further proof that the early-fall recovery has not yet run out of gas. Finishing floor supplies may become burdensome in another 30-45 days or so, but they remain relatively manageable right now.

Feeder cattle trade steady to higher at Monday auction

The cash cattle market was at a standstill on Tuesday with no bids evident and very little interest seen through the trade. At this point, it is expected to be the last half of the week before active trade develops. Both sides are aggressively trying to advance their positions. Asking prices are around 164.00 in the South, and 253.00 to 255.00 plus in the North. USDA estimated the slaughter at 115,000 head, 1,000 less than last week, and 8,000 smaller than last year.

Boxed beef cutout values were weak to lower on moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings. Choice boxed beef was down 1.38 at 247.64, and select is .32 lower at 232.96.

Live cattle contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange settled 15 to 45 points lower, but did regain most of the morning losses as lack of follow through pressure in the lean hog and feeder cattle markets seemed to drive trade activity through most of the cattle contracts. There was very little direction available from market fundamentals over the last couple of days, prices may be unable to break out of the current market range, and may wander in this zone for a while. October settled .15 lower at 156.320, and December was also .15 lower at 158.87.

Feeder cattle ended the session 35 points higher to 22 lower after battling back and forth through the morning trade after holding strong triple digit losses. September settled .35 higher at 229.60 and October was up .02 at 225.87.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Oklahoma National Stockyards on Monday totaled 8100 head. Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers trended steady to firm. Steer and heifer calves were mostly steady to 5.00 higher. There were very few true yearlings on offer with the majority of the supply consisting of un-weaned calves, as a result the most advances were recorded on larger packages of weaned cattle. Feeder steers medium and large 1 averaging 868 pounds brought 218.33 per hundredweight. 628 pound heifers traded at 230.26. [Read more...]

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: September 16, 2014

Dec. corn closed at $3.43 and 3/4, up 3/4 cent
Nov. soybeans closed at $9.80 and 3/4, down 8 and 3/4 cents
Oct. soybean meal closed at $338.30, down 50 cents
Oct. soybean oil closed at 32.81, down 46 points
Dec. wheat closed at $4.96 and 1/4, down 4 and 1/2 cents
Oct. live cattle closed at $156.20, down 15 cents
Oct. lean hogs closed at $106.87, up 80 cents
Oct. crude oil closed at $94.88, up $1.96
Dec. cotton closed at 65.55, down 29 points
Oct. Class III milk closed at $24.19, up 32 cents
Oct. gold closed at $1,235.70, up $1.60
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,131.97, up 100.83 points

Midday cash livestock markets for Tuesday

It is a typical Tuesday in cattle country with bids and asking prices still not fully established. A few showlists have been priced around 164.00 in the South, and 255.00 plus in the North. Though mixed from state to state, generally smaller in the South and larger in the North the new showlists look generally steady with last week. Fed cattle supplies are likely to remain relatively tight through the entire fall season.

Choice boxed beef 248.62, down .40, select is up .22 at 233.50 in the morning report.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Oklahoma National Stockyards on Monday totaled 8100 head. Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers trended steady to firm. Steer and heifer calves were mostly steady to 5.00 higher. There were very few true yearlings on offer with the majority of the supply consisting of un-weaned calves, as a result the most advances were recorded on larger packages of weaned cattle. Feeder steers medium and large 1 averaging 868 pounds brought 218.33 per hundredweight. 628 pound heifers traded at 230.26.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota and Eastern direct trade are not reported due to confidentiality. Western hogs are .78 lower with a weighted average on a carcass basis at 102.71. Nationally barrows and gilts are 1.84 lower at 98.88. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady from 90.00 to 97.00. Barrows and gilts at Midwest markets are fully steady from 65.00 to 74.00 on a live basis.

The pork carcass cutout value FOB plant 109.11, up .26 in the morning report.

Weights on the hogs moving to market remain well above year ago levels, almost large enough to offset the smaller head count. Over the next several weeks, hog kills should continue to trend seasonally larger and the gap to last year’s weekly kill volume will get smaller and smaller.

Cash hogs and pork values close higher

It was typically quiet in cattle country on Monday afternoon following the distribution of the new showlists. Ready numbers appear to be about steady with last week. There are reports from DTN that a few showlists are priced around 164.00 in the South and 255.00 plus in the North. The kill was estimated at 115,000 head, the same as last week, but down 4,000 from last year.

Boxed beef cutout values are lower on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings. Choice beef was down .91 at 249.02, and select was 1.26 lower at 233.28.

Live cattle contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange settled 30 higher to 50 lower in a light trade and the few players stepping in and out of the market had some significant control of price direction. While October held on to a moderate gain, pressure in the deferred contracts limited the ability to draw additional buyer support into the complex. October settled .07 higher at 156.35, and December was down .22 at 159.02.

[Read more...]

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: September 15, 2014

Dec. corn closed at $3.43, up 4 and 1/2 cents
Nov. soybeans closed at $9.89 and 1/2, up 4 and 1/4 cents
Oct. soybean meal closed at $338.80, up 30 cents
Oct. soybean oil closed at 33.27, up 72 points
Dec. wheat closed at $5.00 and 3/4, down 1 and 3/4 cents
Oct. live cattle closed at $156.35, up 7 cents
Oct. lean hogs closed at $106.07, up 37 cents
Oct. crude oil closed at $92.92, up 65 cents
Dec. cotton closed at 65.84, down 216 points
Oct. Class III milk closed at $23.87, up 52 cents
Oct. gold closed at $1,234.10, up $3.70
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,031.14, up 43.63 points