Pork, beef exports down for first quarter

The value of first quarter U.S. beef exports is down slightly compared to a year ago. The drop resulted primarily from Russia virtually closing market access to U.S. beef, in addition to drops in exports to Vietnam and Mexico. U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) CEO Phil Seng put the spotlight on Japan Monday, citing their expansion of market access to U.S. beef from cattle 30 months of age and younger.

“For the most part, we are doing pretty well on the beef side,” said Seng, during a conference call with reporters Tuesday. “I think that when we take a look at Japan, for example, we were up 80 percent in volume just in March alone [following] the changeover from the 20 to 30 months, so that’s been significant.”

Pork exports from the United States during the first quarter, according to Seng, have challenges of their own.

“In traditional markets like Japan where we’ve always done quite well, it’s our leading market for a volume basis, we’re down about 12 percent; Hong Kong/China, down about 10 percent,” he said.

Pork exports to Colombia have jumped, but pork going to Russia has been severely restricted.

The U.S. Meat Export Federation Board of Directors is meeting this week in Washington, D.C. Seng made his comments from that meeting.

Mixed finish ahead of crop numbers

Soybeans were mixed with nearbys up on commercial buying and deferreds down on speculative selling. The old crop supply remains very tight and with the corn planting delays, there’s a good chance of at least some increase in U.S. soybean acreage. According to the USDA, 24% of soybeans have been planted as of Sunday, compared to 71% a year ago and the five year average of 42%, with 3% emerged, compared to 32% last year and 14% on average. Also, traders are watching weather in Brazil; drier weather will help with the loading of ships, but there are still labor issues at major ports. Soybean meal was mixed with old crop up and new crop down, while soybean oil was lower. Dow Jones Newswires reports Vietnam bought 120,000 tons of 2013/14 U.S. soybean meal.

Corn was mixed ahead of the weekly crop progress report. There was some good planting progress last week, matching a week to week record set in 1992, but this week’s starting out with more rain in some key growing areas. USDA reports 71% of corn is planted, compared to 95% last year and 79% on average, while 19% has emerged, compared to 73% a year ago and 46% on average. Ethanol futures were mostly lower. Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of 2013/14 U.S. corn.

The wheat complex was higher on technical and speculative buying. Weekend rainfall in the hard red winter region missed a lot of the drier areas and there are more spring planting delays. For winter wheat, USDA states 43% has headed, compared to 80% a year ago and 62% on average, with of the crop rated 31% good to excellent, down 1% on the week, and for spring wheat, 67% is planted, compared to 98% last year and 76% on average, with 22% emerged, compared to 82% a year ago and 49% on average. European wheat was lower due to recent rainfall in China’s Northern Plain. Russia’s Ag Ministry reports spring grain planting is 11.5% behind last year due to increasing weather problems.

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 20, 2013

Jul. corn closed at $6.49 and 1/2, down 3 and 1/4 cents
Jul. soybeans closed at $14.64 and 1/2, up 16 cents
Jul. soybean meal closed at $435.30, up $10.20
Jul. soybean oil closed at 49.20, down 32 points
Jul. wheat closed at $6.85 and 1/4, up 2 cents
Jun. live cattle closed at $120.12, up 72 cents
Jun. lean hogs closed at $92.07, up 55 cents
Jun. crude oil closed at $96.71, up 69 cents
Jul. cotton closed at 85.78, down 63 points
Jun. Class III milk closed at $18.29, down 7 cents
Jun. gold closed at $1,384.10, up $19.40
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 15,335.28, down 19.12 points

DANONE inks two Chinese dairy deals

French yogurt giant DANONE has reached an agreement to invest 325 million euros ($417 million) in China’s Mengniu Dairy Company. Demand for foreign dairy products has skyrocketed in China since the 2008 melamine scandal caused a loss of confidence in domestic dairy products. Through the French deal, Mengniu will utilized new technology in production of what they promise will be much safe dairy products. The investment will give DANONE Group a four percent share of the largest milk company in China.

Under a second agreement, DANONE will set up and own 20 percent of a joint venture to make and sell chilled yogurt in China. Mengniu had 16 percent of the Chinese yogurt market in 2010; the new joint effort is expected to double that by 2015.

This is not DANONE’s first venture into China, they pulled out of a yogurt-making deal with Mengniu five years ago saying it was not progressing as expected.

Mengniu formed a joint-venture with Denmark-based Arla Foods last June to develop dairy products and rebuild consumer confidence in Chinese dairy products. Arla says the DANONE deal will not affect their partnership.

Corn inspections top estimates

USDA reports corn export inspections for the week ending May 16 were larger than expected, while soybeans and wheat were within pre-report estimates.

Wheat came out at 21.149 million bushels, down 2.837 million from the week ending May 9 and 3.960 million lower than the week ending May 17, 2012. With wheat’s 2012/13 marketing year rapidly coming to a close, inspections are 966.139 million bushels, compared to 997.379 million late in 2011/12.

Corn was reported at 14.557 million bushels, 1.862 million more than the previous week but 12.246 million less than this time last year. So far this marketing year, corn inspections are 516.237 million bushels, compared to 1.165 billion a year ago.

Soybeans were pegged at 3.328 million bushels, 46,000 under the week before and 9.751 million below last year. At this point in the marketing year, soybean inspections are 1.259 billion bushels, compared to 1.136 billion a year ago.

Sorghum inspections totaled 83,000 bushels. That’s a drop of 803,000 bushels on the week and a decline of 156,000 on the year. 2012/13 sorghum inspections are 55.208 million bushels, compared to 41.771 million in 2011/12.

Soybeans, nearby corn up on commercials

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. Unknown destinations bought 138,000 tons of combined old and new crop U.S. beans and China picked up 120,000 tons of new crop. Out of the purchase by unknown, 18,000 tons is for 2012/13 delivery and 120,000 tons is for 2013/14. Fundamentally, the near term supply remains tight and there are continued shipping delays out of major ports in Brazil, from both rain delaying loading and labor issues. Soybean meal was up on spillover from beans and oil was mixed in consolidation trade.

Corn was mixed on old crop/new crop spread adjustments, with nearbys up on commercial buying and deferreds down on speculative selling. The trade does expect good planting progress on Monday, but there has been rain in some already very wet areas and there’s more in the forecast in some key growing areas. In any event, those numbers are out Monday at 4 PM Eastern/3 PM Central. Ethanol futures were higher. South Korea’s Corn Processing Industry Association bought 45,000 tons of food grade corn from South Africa.

The wheat was lower fund and technical selling. There was no new buying interest for the winter wheat pits, despite domestic and international weather concerns. Losses in Minneapolis were limited by the slow spring planting pace and good demand for high protein wheat. European wheat was lower on recent rainfall in the Black Sea region and Australia. In sell-buy-sell export activity, Japan is tendering for 37,000 tons of food wheat, 2,000 tons of malting barley, and 1,000 tons of food barley.

Commercials support soybeans

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. The nearby supply remains tight and shipments out of Brazil continue to be slow due to rain delaying loading, along with labor issues. Weekly export sales were within estimates with another strong week for shipments. Bean meal sales topped pre-report estimates and USDA reported a net cancellation on soybean oil. Soybean meal and oil were higher, following beans, with oil getting additional support from the firm cash basis.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Rain coverage around the Midwest has generally been light, allowing for solid planting progress in many areas. There’s more rain in the forecast but amounts could be less than originally expected. Ethanol futures were mostly lower. South Korea’s Corn Processing Industry Association bought 55,000 tons of food grade corn from Brazil, bringing purchases of corn and wheat by South Korean feed and flour mills over the past 10 days to more than 600,000 tons.

The wheat complex was lower on technical and fund selling. Weekly export numbers were pretty much neutral to bearish with nothing really outstanding and no fresh news. However, you would think weather would be a bigger factor with dry conditions for the hard red winter crop and more rain ahead for the Northern Plains. European wheat was lower on spillover from Chicago. Bangladesh bought 50,000 tons of wheat from India and in sell-buy-sell trade, Japan is tendering for 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley.

Colombia/U.S. FTA’s first anniversary

The US Embassy of Colombia in Washington says the US./Colombian Free Trade Agreement has generated 28-and-a-half Billion in trade for both countries in its first year, benefitting ag trade both ways.

The embassy reports that US ag exports to Colombia increased 68 percent – the main products being soybeans, soybean meal, rice and pork.

Colombian ag exports (excluding coffee) increased by 7 percent. Colombia is the 12th largest ag supplier for the U.S.

This is the one year anniversary of the implementation of the long-sought agreement.

Bean meal sales top estimates

USDA reports soybean meal export sales for the week ending May 9 were larger than expected, while corn, wheat, and soybeans were within pre-report estimates, and soybean oil saw a net reduction. Physical shipments of soybeans were more than what’s needed weekly to meet USDA projections for the 2012/13 marketing year but corn and wheat fell short of their respective marks.

Wheat came out at 125,000 tons (4.6 million bushels), down 48% from the week ending May 2 and 52% lower than the four week average. The Philippines bought 65,000 tons and Egypt picked up 63,000 tons but unknown destinations canceled on 255,100 tons. With less than a month left in the 2012/13 marketing year for wheat, exports are 986.7 million bushels, compared to 1.022 billion late in 2011/12. Sales of 415,600 tons (15.3 million bushels) for 2013/14 delivery were mainly to unknown destinations (196,900 tons) and Japan (64,800 tons).

Corn was reported at 219,900 tons (8.7 million bushels), 90% more than the previous week but 24% less than the four week average. Mexico purchased 136,700 tons and Japan bought 132,900 tons, with unknown canceling on 86,000 tons. For the marketing year to date, corn sales are 672.6 million bushels, compared to 1.491 billion this time last year. Sales of 38,600 tons (1.5 million bushels) for 2013/14 delivery were to Mexico (31,100 tons) and Panama (7,500 tons).

Soybeans were pegged at 15,300 tons (600,000 bushels), with sales from 1,300 to 10,300 tons partially offset by cancellations of 1,900 and 9,000 tons. So far this marketing year, soybean sales are 1.341 billion bushels, compared to 1.290 billion a year ago. Sales of 346,600 tons (12.7 million bushels) for 2013/14 delivery were to China (275,000 tons), Mexico (45,000 tons), and unknown destinations (20,500 tons).

Soybean meal came out at 82,800 tons, larger than the week before but 44% smaller than the four week average. Colombia picked up 52,000 tons and Venezuela purchased 26,700 tons but unknown destinations canceled on 75,400 tons. At this point in the marketing year, soybean meal sales are 8,792,700 tons, compared to 6,586,400 tons last year. Sales of 109,700 tons for 2013/14 delivery were primarily to Vietnam (94,000 tons).

Soybean oil had a net reduction of 5,300 tons with cancellations offsetting any new sales. 2012/13 soybean oil sales are 827,500 tons, compared to 411,000 in 2011/12.

Net beef sales were reported at 4,700 tons. The listed buyers were Canada (2,800 tons), Hong Kong (1,800 tons), South Korea (1,600 tons), Mexico (1,200 tons), and Taiwan (700 tons). Cancellations were made by Japan (3,000 tons) and Vietnam (600 tons).

Net pork sales totaled 7,200 tons. The reported purchasers were Japan (1,900 tons), Canada (1,700 tons), Mexico (900 tons), South Korea (700 tons), and Hong Kong (600 tons).

Global Dairy Trade prices decline again

Global Dairy Trade auction at Fonterra on Wednesday saw prices decline for the second consecutive sale. Overall prices declined 2.1 percent from the May 1st sale. Rennet Casein was the only product to see an increase over the last sale, up 3.7 percent. Anhydrous milk fat slipped 0.2 percent, whole milk powder was 1.7 percent lower, skim milk powder declined 2.8 percent, butter milk powder fell 5.1 percent and butter dropped 12.4 percent. There were no sales of cheddar cheese, milk protein concentrates or lactose.

Meanwhile here in the U.S.A., National Dairy Products Sales for the week ending May 11th, cheddar cheese blocks averaged $1.89 up 3.1 cents from the previous week. Barrels decreased 2.1 cents to $1.74, butter lost 3.8 cents to average $1.68, dry whey was 0.2 cents lower at 57.8 cents per pounds and nonfat dry milk increased 3.5 cents to $1.64.

It was a mixed day in the dairy markets on Wednesday; cash cheese barrels increased a half-cent on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to $1.73 while blocks lost another 2.5 cents to $1.755. The barrel-to-block spread is down to 2.5 cents from 23 cents a couple of weeks ago. Class III futures rebounded with the June contract moving back above the $18 mark.