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USDA’s long term projection preview looks mixed

 

A preview of new long term projections from the USDA paint a mixed picture for ag over the next decade.

The USDA sees planted acreage for both corn and soybeans in 2018 at 91 million acres, with slightly smaller crop sizes next year. Corn acreage could gradually decline, but yields are expected to climb to more than 190 bushels per acre, while soybean acres may stay above 91 million through the 2027/28 marketing year, also with higher average yields. Wheat acreage this year might be a new all-time recorded low, but the USDA projects at least some increase through the next ten years.

The USDA also expects rising pork production, exports, and per capita consumption, with near term dip in price ahead of a recovery later in the decade. Beef production is expected to spike in the next few years ahead of a slight pull-back around 2020 and while domestic and export consumption are expected to grow, prices could be sharply lower ten years from now, with the USDA anticipating a larger U.S. inventory.

The numbers are highly subjective and could be impacted by a number of factors, including weather and economics.

The full set of 10 year projections is out in February.

USDA Long Term Agricultural Projections

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