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USDA raises U.S. soybean, wheat ending stocks projections

The USDA has increased its domestic ending stocks estimates for soybeans and wheat.

Soybeans are now projected at 445 million bushels, 10 million more than in March, with a bigger seed use guess and expectations for lower rates of uncategorized or residual use. Wheat stocks came out 1.159 billion bushels, up 30 million on the month because of a lower feed and residual use estimate. Corn was unchanged at 2.320 billion bushels with a lower feed use guess cancelling out a higher ethanol use projection.

The USDA also raised soybean and corn production numbers for Argentina and Brazil, along with world wheat ending stocks.

The 2016/17 marketing year ends May 31st for wheat, August 31st for corn and soybeans, and September 30th for soybean products.

Breakdowns of U.S. and world supply and demand tables for wheat, corn, and soybeans:

2016/17 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 1.159 billion bushels, compared to 1.129 billion in March and 976 million for 2015/16. The USDA lowered imports 5 million bushels to 110 million, putting total supply at 3.395 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was decreased 35 million bushels to 190 million, taking domestic use to 1.211 billion bushels and total use to 2.236 billion. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $3.80 to $3.90 per bushel, unchanged from a month ago and below the $4.89 average a year ago.

2016/17 U.S. corn ending stocks are currently pegged at 2.320 billion bushels, steady with last month and above the 1.737 billion last marketing year. The USDA lowered feed and residual use 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion, but raised ethanol use 50 million bushels to 5.45 billion. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $3.25 to $3.55, compared to $3.20 to $3.60 in March and $3.61 for 2015/16.

2016/17 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 445 million bushels, compared to 435 million a month ago and 197 million a year ago. Seed use was raised 9 million bushels to 104 million, while “residual” use was lowered 19 million bushels to 14 million, putting total use at 4.083 billion bushels. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $9.40 to $9.70 per bushel, compared to $9.30 to $9.90 last month and $8.95 last marketing year.

2016/17 world wheat ending stocks are estimated at 252.26 million tons, compared to 249.94 million in March. Production was raised slightly to 751.36 million tons, with very modest increases for Pakistan, Russia, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states. Domestic feed use is seen at 146.51 million tons, compared to 148.32 million a month ago, and exports are expected to be 180.86 million tons, compared to 181.02 million last month.

2016/17 world corn ending stocks are projected at 222.98 million tons, compared to 220.68 million a month ago. Global production is expected to be 1.054 billion tons, up 4.5 million, on increased outlooks for Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa, all U.S. export competitors, along with Mexico and Southeast Asia. Domestic feed use is estimated at 630.67 million tons, compared to 630.24 million last month, and exports are pegged at 154.41 million tons, compared to 152.92 million in March. The USDA hiked export outlooks for Argentina and Brazil.

2016/17 world soybean ending stocks are seen at 87.41 million tons, compared to 82.82 million last month. This year’s world crop is estimated at 345.97 million tons, compared to 340.79 million in March following increased expectations for Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Mexico. Domestic crush demand is projected at 291.94 million tons, compared to 291.55 million in March, and exports are pegged at 143.30 million tons, compared to 141.10 million a month ago. The USDA increased export guesses for Brazil, Paraguay, and the European Union.