News

USDA raises U.S. soybean ending stocks estimate

The USDA raised its 2016/17 domestic soybean ending stocks estimate while tightening the balance sheet for wheat and leaving corn unchanged on the month.

Soybean ending stocks were up 15 million bushels from February at 435 million with a reduced export projection cancelling out a bigger domestic crush guess. Wheat ending stocks were lowered 10 million bushels to 1.129 billion with the USDA reducing its import estimate by 10 million bushels. Corn held at 2.320 billion bushels, with larger ethanol use estimate offsetting a lower feed use projection.

The USDA’s prospective planting and quarterly stocks reports are out March 31st and the next set of supply and demand numbers is out April 11th.

Balance sheet breakdowns for corn, soybeans, soybean products, and wheat:

2016/17 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 1.129 billion bushels, compared to 1.139 million in February and 976 million in 2015/16. The USDA lowered imports 10 million bushels to 115 million, putting total supply at 3.4 billion bushels. There were no changes to the demand side of the balance sheet. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $3.80 to $3.90 per bushel, unchanged from a month ago and down from the year ago average of $4.89.

2016/17 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 2.320 billion bushels, steady with last month and above the 1.737 billion at the end of the last marketing year. The USDA lowered its feed and residual use outlook 50 million bushels to 5.550 billion, and raised ethanol and by-products 50 million bushels to 5.400 billion. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $3.20 to $3.60, unchanged from February and close to the 2015/16 average of $3.61.

2016/17 U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to be 435 million bushels, compared to 420 million a month ago and 197 million in the previous marketing year. The crush pace was raised 10 million bushels to 1.940 billion, while exports were lowered 25 million bushels to 2.025 billion, putting total use at 4.093 billion bushels. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $9.30 to $9.90 per bushel, compared to $9.10 to $9.90 last month and $8.95 last marketing year.

2016/17 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are seen at 1.772 billion pounds, compared to 1.677 billion in February and 1.687 billion for 2015/16. Production was lowered to 22.560 billion pounds, while imports were raised to 325 million, for total supply of 24.572 million pounds. The biodiesel use estimate was left at 6.200 billion pounds and exports were increased to 2.250 billion, for total use of 22.800 billion. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $.32 to $.35 per pound, compared to $.34 to $.37 a month ago and $.2986 a year ago.

2016/17 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks are pegged at 300,000 short tons, steady with last month and up from the 264,000 last marketing year. Production was increased to 45.611 million short tons, putting the total domestic supply at 46.200 million. Domestic demand was hiked to 34.300 million short tons, for total use of 45.900 million. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $310 to $340 per short ton, unchanged from February and close to the 2015/16 average of $324.56.