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USDA raises corn, soybean crop estimates for Brazil

The USDA has increased its corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil. Weather has been an issue at points during the South American growing season, but overall conditions are generally better than last year.

The USDA has Brazil’s soybean crop at a record 108 million tons and corn at 91.5 million tons, both bigger than what Brazil’s CONAB is currently expecting, 107.61 million tons and 88.97 million tons, respectively. The USDA also increased Brazil’s soybean export estimate by 1.5 million tons to 61 million, while lowering the U.S. guess, and raised China’s import projection by 1 million tons to 87 million. Corn exports were also hiked, up 3 million tons to 31 million.

Argentina’s corn crop estimate was also above February at 37.5 million tons, while soybeans were left at 55.5 million tons, both a little bit less than what the Rosario Grain Exchange is projecting. Argentina’s soybean export estimate was unchanged on the month at 9 million tons and corn was raised 500,000 tons to 25.5 million. Wheat was increased 1 million tons to 16 million, with exports now projected at 10.10 million tons.

Breakdown of global 2016/17 corn, soybean, wheat balance sheets:

2016/17 world wheat ending stocks are projected at 249.94 million tons, up 1.33 million from February. The USDA raised production to 751.07 million tons on increased expectations for Argentina, Australia, and Brazil. Domestic feed use is estimated at 148.32 million tons, compared to 148.98 million last month, and exports are seen at 181.02 million tons, compared to 178.99 million a month ago. The USDA expects bigger imports from key competitors Argentina, Australia, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states, but lowered the outlook for Canada.

2016/17 world corn ending stocks are estimated at 220.68 million tons, compared to 217.56 million last month. Production is expected to be 1.049 billion tons, compared to 1.040 billion in February, with increased outlooks for Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa. Domestic feed use globally is seen at 630.24 million tons, compared to 629.06 million a month ago, and exports are expected to be 152.92 million tons, compared to 148.97 million in February. The USDA increased its export projections for Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa.

2016/17 world soybean ending stocks are seen at 82.82 million tons, compared to 80.38 million a month ago. The world crop is now pegged at 340.79 million tons, compared to the last guess of 336.62 million, on an upward revision for Brazil cancelling out a slight decline for the European Union. Domestic crush use is projected at 291.55 million tons, compared to 290.74 million in February, and exports are estimated at 141.1 million tons, compared to 140.11 million last month. The USDA increased exports outlooks for Brazil and Paraguay.