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USDA lowers corn, wheat ending stocks estimates

The USDA has tightened 2016/17 domestic balance sheet projections for corn and wheat.

Corn ending stocks were down 35 million bushels from January at 2.320 billion on expectations for continued strong feed and fuel demand, and wheat ending stocks were lowered 47 million bushels to 1.139 billion thanks to the recent better than anticipated export demand.

Soybean ending stocks were unchanged on the month at 420 million bushels, when most analysts had been expecting a decrease.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2016/17 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 1.139 billion bushels, compared to 1.186 billion in January and 976 million for the 2015/16 marketing year. USDA lowered its food use estimate 3 million bushels to 960 million, for domestic use of 1.246 billion bushels, and raised exports 50 million bushels to 1.025 billion, for total use of 2.271 billion bushels. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $3.80 to $3.90 per bushel, compared to $3.75 to $3.85 a month ago and $4.89 in the previous marketing year.

2016/17 U.S. corn ending stocks are estimated at 2.320 billion bushels, compared to 2.355 billion last month and 1.737 billion last marketing year. Food, seed, & industrial use was increased 35 million bushels to 6.795 billion, and ethanol use was raised 25 million bushels to 5.350 billion, for domestic use of 12.395 billion bushels and total use of 14.620 billion. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $3.20 to $3.60 per bushel, compared to January’s range of $3.10 to $3.70 and the 2015/16 average of $3.61.

2016/17 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 420 million bushels, compared to 420 million a month ago and 197 million the previous marketing year. There were no changes to the balance sheet. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $9.10 to $9.90 per bushel, compared to $9 to $10 last month and $8.95 last marketing year.

2016/17 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are expected to be 1.677 billion pounds, compared to 1.652 billion in January and 1.687 billion for 2015/16. Imports were hiked 25 million pounds to 300 million for total supply of 24.377 billion pounds. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $.34 to $.37 per pound, compared to $.34 to $.37 a month ago and $.2986 in the previous marketing year.

2016/17 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks came out at 300,000 short tons, compared to 300,000 last month and 264,000 last marketing year. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $310 to $340 per short ton, compared to $305 to $345 in January and $324.56 in 2015/16.

2016/17 world wheat ending stocks are seen at 248.61 million tons, compared to 253.29 million a month ago. Global production is expected to be 748.24 million tons, compared to 752.69 million with reduced outlooks for India, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states. Domestic feed use is pegged at 148.98 million tons, compared to 147.58 million last month, and exports are estimated at 178.99 million tons, compared to 178.05 million in January.

2016/17 world corn ending stocks are projected at 217.56 million tons, compared to 220.98 million a month ago. Production is seen at 1.040 billion tons, compared to 1.038 billion a month ago thanks to increased expectations for Mexico, Ukraine, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states. The E.U. production guess was down slightly and Argentina and Brazil were left unchanged. Domestic feed use is anticipated to be 629.06 million tons, compared to 626.02 million last month, and exports are seen at 148.97 million tons, compared to 148.07 million in January. USDA raised the export outlooks for Canada, Ukraine, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states.

2016/17 world soybean ending stocks came out at 80.38 million tons, compared to 82.32 million in January. Global production is expected to be 336.62 million tons, compared to 337.85 million last month with a reduced estimate for Argentina and a slight increase for Mexico. Brazil was left unchanged. Domestic crush use is projected at 290.74 million tons, compared to 290.34 million a month ago, and exports are seen at 140.11 million tons, compared to 139.90 million last month. USDA left Chinese imports unchanged.