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USDA increases soybean crop estimate, reduces corn

The USDA has lowered its 2017 production outlook for corn from July, while raising the estimate for soybeans. This is the first set of field based production numbers of the year, with widely varied weather during the course of the growing season.

As of August 1st, this year’s corn crop is expected to be 14.153 billion bushels with an average yield of 169.5 bushels per acre, down from both last month’s projections of 14.255 billion with an average yield of 170.7 and the 2016 totals of 15.148 billion bushels with an average yield of 174.6 bushels per acre, but potentially the third largest crop and yield on record and more than what many analysts were expecting. Harvest area is seen at 83.496 million acres, compared to 86.748 million a year ago.

Soybeans are pegged at 4.381 billion bushels with an average yield of 49.4 bushels per acre. That would be a bigger crop than 2016’s total of 4.307 billion bushels, but with a lower average yield; last year’s average was 52.1 bushels per acre. In July, the USDA had beans at 4.260 billion bushels with an average yield of 48.0 bushels per acre. Harvested area is expected to be a record 88.731 million acres, compared to 82.736 million last year. The USDA says that if realized, record yields would be achieved in Missouri, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina.

Production for all types of wheat is projected at 1.739 billion bushels with an average yield of 45.6 bushels per acre, compared to 2.310 billion bushels with an average yield of 52.6 bushels per acre in 2016. Winter wheat production is seen at 1.287 billion bushels, compared to 1.672 billion a year ago. By type, hard red winter is pegged at 758.372 million bushels, with soft red at 306.118 million, and white winter at 185.029 million bushels. The average yield is pegged at 50.0 bushels per acre, compared to 49.7 last month and 55.3 last year. The average yield for Illinois could be a new record high. The harvested area is expected to be 25.760 million acres, compared to 30.222 million in 2016. Spring wheat is projected at 401.554 million acres, compared to 423 million a month ago 534.027 million a year ago, with an average yield of 38.3 bushels per acre, compared to 40.3 last month and 47.2 last year. By type, hard red spring wheat is expected to total 364.210 million bushels, with white at 37.344 million and durum at 50.535 million bushels. Harvested area for spring wheat is seen at 10.467 million acres, compared to 11.303 million in 2016.

Corn, soybean, and wheat production estimates and comparisons for Brownfield states:

Illinois: Corn: 2.059 billion bushels, compared to 2.256 billion in 2016; average yield of 188 bushels per acre, compared to 197 a year ago; harvested area of 10.95 million acres, compared to 11.45 million last year; Soybeans: 599.72 million bushels, compared to 592.95 million in 2016; average yield of 58 bushels per acre, compared to 59 a year ago; harvested area of 10.34 million acres, compared to 10.05 million last year; Winter Wheat: 36.26 million bushels, compared to 34.78 million in 2016; average yield of 74 bushels per acre, compared to 75 a month ago and 74 a year ago; harvested area of 490,000 acres, compared to 470,000 last year

Indiana: Corn: 929.01 million bushels, compared to 946.31 million in 2016; average yield of 173 bushels per acre, unchanged from a year ago; harvested area of 5.37 million acres, compared to 5.47 million last year; Soybeans: 323.95 million bushels, compared to 324.3 million in 2016; average yield of 55 bushels per acre, compared to 57.5 a year ago; harvested area of 5.89 million acres, compared to 5.64 million last year; Winter Wheat: 20.28 million bushels, compared to 22.68 million in 2016; average yield of 78 bushels per acre, compared to 76 a month ago and 81 a year ago; harvested area of 260,000 acres, compared to 280,000 last year

Iowa: Corn: 2.463 billion bushels, compared to 2.741 billion in 2016; average yield of 188 bushels per acre, compared to 203 a year ago; harvested area of 13.1 million acres, compared to 13.5 million last year; Soybeans: 557.2 million bushels, compared to 571.725 million in 2016; average yield of 56 bushels per acre, compared to 60.5 a year ago; harvested area of 9.95 million acres, compared to 9.45 million last year

Michigan: Corn: 360.4 million bushels, compared to 320.28 million in 2016; average yield of 170 bushels per acre, compared to 157 a year ago; harvested area of 2.12 million acres, compared to 2.04 million last year; Soybeans: 112.21 million bushels, compared to 104.03 million in 2016; average yield of 49 bushels per acre, compared to 50.5 a year ago; harvested area of 2.29 million bushels, compared to 2.06 million last year; Winter Wheat: 34.4 million bushels, compared to 50.73 million in 2016; average yield of 80 bushels per acre, compared to 84 a month ago and 89 a year ago; harvested area of 430,000 acres, compared to 570,000 last year

Minnesota: Corn: 1.382 billion bushels, compared to 1.544 billion in 2016; average yield of 183 bushels per acre, compared to 193 a year ago; harvested area of 7.55 million acres, compared to 8 million last year; Soybeans: 399.35 million bushels, compared to 393.75 million in 2016; average yield of 49 bushels per acre, compared to 52.5 a year ago; harvested area of 8.15 million acres, compared to 7.5 million last year; Spring Wheat: 77.47 million bushels, compared to 74.34 million in 2016; average yield of 61 bushels per acre, compared to 61 a month ago and 59 a year ago; harvested area of 1.27 million acres, compared to 1.26 million last year

Missouri: Corn: 502.2 million bushels, compared to 570.55 million in 2016; average yield of 162 bushels per acre, compared to 163 a year ago; harvested area of 3.1 million acres, compared to 3.5 million last year; Soybeans: 289.1 million bushels, compared to 271.46 million in 2016; average yield of 49 bushels per acre, unchanged from a month ago; harvested area of 5.9 million acres, compared to 5.54 million last year; Winter Wheat: 34.17 million bushels, compared to 39.9 million in 2016; average yield of 67 bushels per acre, compared to 68 a month ago and 70 a year ago; harvested area of 510,000 acres, compared to 570,000 last year

Nebraska: Corn: 1.739 billion bushels, compared to 1.7 billion in 2016; average yield of 183 bushels per acre, compared to 178 a year ago; harvested area of 9.5 million acres, compared to 9.55 million last year; Soybeans: 327.7 million bushels, compared to 314.15 million in 2016; average yield of 58 bushels per acre, compared to 61 a year ago; harvested area of 5.65 million acres, compared to 5.15 million last year; Winter Wheat: 46 million bushels, compared to 70.74 million in 2016; average yield of 46 bushels per acre, compared to 46 a month ago and 54 a year ago; harvested area of 1 million acres, compared to 1.31 million last year

Ohio: Corn: 552.33 million bushels, compared to 524.7 million in 2016; average yield of 171 bushels per acre, compared to 159 a year ago; harvested area of 3.23 million acres, compared to 3.3 million last year; Soybeans: 264.47 million bushels, compared to 263.78 million in 2016; average yield of 53 bushels per acre, compared to 54.5 a year ago; harvested area of 4.99 million acres, compared to 4.84 million last year; Winter Wheat: 32.34 million bushels, compared to 44.8 million in 2016; average yield of 77 bushels per acre, compared to 75 a month ago and 80 a year ago; harvested area of 420,000 acres, compared to 560,000 last year

South Dakota: Corn: 672 million bushels, compared to 825.93 million in 2016; average yield of 140 bushels per acre, compared to 161 a year ago; harvested area of 4.8 million acres, compared to 5.13 million last year; Soybeans: 219.76 million bushels, compared to 255.915 million in 2016; average yield of 41 bushels per acre, compared to 49.5 a year ago; harvested area of 5.36 million acres, compared to 5.17 million last year; Winter Wheat: 24.7 million bushels, compared to 63.8 million in 2016; average yield of 38 bushels per acre, compared to 43 a month ago and 58 a year ago; harvested area of 650,000 acres, compared to 1.1 million last year; Spring Wheat: 30.08 million bushels, compared to 47.25 million in 2016; average yield of 32 bushels per acre, compared to 34 a month ago and 45 a year ago; harvested area of 940,000 acres, compared to 1.05 million last year

Wisconsin: Corn: 494.1 million bushels, compared to 573.16 million in 2016; average yield of 162 bushels per acre, compared to 178 a year ago; harvested area of 3.05 million acres, compared to 3.22 million last year; Soybeans: 102.72 million bushels, compared to 107.25 million in 2016; average yield of 48 bushels per acre, compared to 55 a year ago; harvested area of 2.14 million acres, compared to 1.95 million last year; Winter Wheat: 14.25 million bushels, compared to 19.75 million in 2016; average yield of 75 bushels per acre, compared to 77 a month ago and 79 a year ago; harvested area of 190,000 acres, compared to 250,000 last year

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