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Prospective Plantings report could elicit lackluster market response

A market analyst expects a rather lackluster response to the USDA Planting Intentions report at the end of the month.

Mark Schultz says his firm, Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis, has been forecasting a 2017 corn acreage reduction of around 3 million, and 3 to 4 million more soybean acres since last fall.

He tells Brownfield there haven’t been many reasons to change that prediction, and anticipates less volatility when the prospective planting estimates are released.

“I think it will be a quieter trade than what we’ve been used to having, and that’s because of two things.  One: acreage is just part of the equation.  It would still be based on what type of a yield you end up with.”

Double-digit closes have followed the Planting Intentions report 8 of the last 10 years.

Schultz says corn and soybean quarterly stocks numbers released at the same time could be more of a factor.

“You want to stay away from something that would get onto the bearish side.  So basically I would day anything that comes in 1.64 (billion) or lower would probably be friendly for soybeans.  And if you have a corn stocks number under 8.7 billion bushels (it) would likely be neutral to a little bit friendly as well.”

Schultz says stocks numbers above those levels would be viewed as negative for corn and soybeans.

The USDA Prospective Planting Intentions and March 1st Quarterly Stocks reports are out at 11 o’clock central March 31st.

 

 

 

 

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