News

Not a lot of changes to USDA corn, soybean balance sheets

The USDA made minor adjustments to old and new crop U.S. ending stocks estimates. USDA lowered the old crop crush demand guess for soybeans, which pushed old and new crop ending stocks estimates slightly higher, and there were no changes for corn. The current marketing year for beans and corn runs through August.

New crop wheat ending stocks were up on the month, with the USDA raising estimates for imports and last year’s crop. The new marketing year for wheat started June 1st.

The USDA lowered its 2017 pork and beef production estimates. Beef is is now expected to be just over 26 billion pounds, mostly because of lighter average weights, and the price outlook was raised slightly on that lower production estimate. Pork production is seen at just under 26 billion pounds on a slower second quarter slaughter pace and lighter weights, with a slightly higher price projection. The USDA left 2017 pork and beef export estimates unchanged.

Broiler chicken was down a little bit on the month, with the USDA expecting a slower slaughter pace, and the price outlook was higher because of strong demand expectations. Turkey production was slightly lower, also on a slowdown in slaughter, and the expected price range was reduced because of weak demand.

The USDA lowered its 2017 milk production guess. For the second month in a row, the Ag Department reduced its outlook because of expected slower growth in per cow yield.

USDA increased its price projections for milk, cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk, on that lower production estimate and expectations for strong domestic and international demand.

The USDA increased its 2017 corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil. The figures are slightly above what Brazil’s government is currently projecting. Brazil’s corn exports were unchanged on the month and the soybean export estimate was higher, so there’s still plenty of international competition on the horizon. The USDA left Argentina’s corn production estimate unchanged and increased the outlook for beans, while leaving corn exports unchanged and lowering soybean exports slightly. China’s soybean import guess was unchanged on the month at 89 million tons.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out July 12th.

Full June supply and demand report