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Northern Plains drought impact on hay market

The impact of drought on the hay market in the High Plains is one of high prices and uncertainty about the winter. American Farm Bureau economist Katelyn McCullock says 30% of that area is in moderate to exceptional drought with 10% in extreme categories, “So what that means for livestock producers is that they’ve needed to feed supplemental hay in the time of year when they would normally just have their livestock grazing on those pastures.”

She says North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana are typically in the top 10 for hay production in the U.S., “And, given how far north they are they usually have less cuttings per acre than what you might see in other parts of the country but also the lack of rain has led to less production overall. So, there’s both short term and long term effects that are going to play into the hay market.

She says hay prices are responding to supplemental feeding not just in those states but surrounding states as demand grows. The longer impact, McCullock says, is how low stocks will be this coming winter. Even if it rains before then, she says, the Northern Plains is past the point of improvement for hay production.