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Marketing advisor: Time is running out for a big rally

Paul Mussman, speaking at an Iowa Soybean Association meeting near Alexander, Iowa.

An ag marketing advisor says another rally in corn and soybeans this summer is possible.  But Paul Mussman, president of AgWest Commodities, says time is running out for a significant up move.

“The major reports are done—the plantings, the intentions—all that’s past us,” Mussman says. “We’re into weather now. As we finish out this crop, weather is going to be number one—and the number two is going to be the funds. Are they going to open up their checkbook and continue to try to build a long position in here to help hype and bring some volatility into higher prices with these markets?”

Mussman says the large carryovers in corn and soybeans will continue to weigh on prices well into 2018.

“Our carryovers are not getting any smaller,” he says. “We’ve got tremendous demand and usage, but if we produce another decent to average-size crop, we’re going to again have excess bushels that we can’t use, consume or ship over the pond.”

If there are opportunities to sell at a profit, Mussman says, producers need to be ready to take advantage of them.

“It might not be the windfall that we saw in ’12 and ’13–but are we trying to get rich in one year, or are we trying to stay profitable every year? That’s the kind of question we ask our producers.”

AgWest is based in Holdrege, Nebraska, but has offices in Kansas, Colorado, Iowa and South Dakota. Mussman spoke this week at an Iowa Soybean Association “Planning for Profitability” meeting in Alexander, Iowa.

AUDIO: Paul Mussman

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