News

Biding time in the corn market

An ag economist says he expects the corn market outlook to stay the same for the next several months.

Darrell Good with the University of Illinois tells Brownfield corn prices since late July have been trading in a narrow range of $3.70 to $4.10.  “As we look at potential changes in the estimates of crop size and potential changes in the forecast of consumption—probably not going to move us outside of that range anytime soon.”

He says this year’s harvest season was a bit of a surprise for analysts considering earlier weather conditions.  “It turns out that the pace of harvest was a non-event but the size of the crop being a little larger than what was thought earlier has kept prices under pressure.”  Good says a slow export pace has also led to price weakness during harvest.

While the near-term outlook remains bleak, Good says the wildcard factor next year will be the El Niño weather system.  “I think we can’t forget that we’re just still only one crop away from a shortage on corn and we could see much more price action as we go into the spring and summer of next year.”

He says until then, farmers will have to bide their time until more bullish moves may be seen in 2016.

AUDIO: Interview with Darrel Good