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Winter wheat up on early emergence, dry weather

Soybeans were mostly fractionally lower, failing to follow through on early gains. Many forecasts have more harvest and transportation delaying rains in parts of Brazil this week. Domestic demand should stay strong, even if U.S. exports decline because of probable record South American production. Safras e Mercado says Brazil’s key state of Mato Grosso is 78% harvested. Soybean meal was mixed, adjusting old crop/new crop spreads, and bean oil was down on profit taking.

Corn was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. Parts of the Midwest should see rain this week ahead of widespread fieldwork and planting activity. The USDA’s new supply and demand report is out Thursday, including updates on South America, and the USDA’s Prospective Planting report is out on the 31st. Argentina is expected to see a generally helpful warmer, drier pattern next week. Ethanol futures were lower.

The wheat complex was mixed, mostly modestly higher. Winter wheat is emerging earlier than normal with very dry conditions in some key growing areas, supporting Chicago and Kansas City. The bearish world supply and slow export demand for U.S. wheat should continue to limit the long term upside. Minneapolis was down on commercial selling. South Korea bought 60,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat.

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