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Weather worries support soybeans

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying, bouncing back after some early losses. Near term weather forecasts generally have mostly scattered rainfall and high temperatures in some key growing areas as the crop starts or heads towards critical development phases. The U.S. condition rating was down, with week to week losses across the Midwest into the Plains. Soybean meal and oil were higher, following beans. The USDA’s attaché in Brazil pegs 2016/17 soybean production at 114 million tons and sees 2017/18 at 105 million. A quarter into their current marketing year, soybean exports are 11.5% ahead of 2015/16. CONAB says Brazil’s 2016/17 soybean harvest is over, with their total at 113.93 million tons.

Corn was narrowly mixed in consolidation trade. Traders are concerned about the weather and contracts managed to hang around the recent highs after USDA reported a decline in the condition rating. Weather should continue to be the big factor for corn. The trade was also getting ready for Wednesday’s USDA supply, demand, and production numbers, out at Noon Eastern/11 AM Central. Ethanol futures were higher ahead of the weekly EIA production and stocks data, also out Wednesday. Brazil’s CONAB says the first corn harvest is complete, with a total of 30.4 million tons, and the second is ongoing, with a projected total of 65.63 million tons.

The wheat complex was mostly steady to modestly higher. The spring condition rating was lower this week with only scattered rain expected in the northwestern Plains, helping Minneapolis to a mostly higher finish. Chicago was up and Kansas City was steady to firm. The winter wheat harvest is a little ahead of average, with the trade watching protein and yield results. Japan is tendering for 93,765 tons of food wheat from the U.S. and Australia and Jordan is in the market for 100,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat. France’s Ag Ministry estimates soft wheat production at 36.2 million tons, which would be up 31% on the year.

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