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USDA numbers push corn, wheat sharply lower

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling. The USDA raised its production estimate slightly, in response to the June acreage adjustments. Old and new crop ending stocks were both down on the month, limiting losses. Soybean meal and oil followed beans lower. USDA left its old and new crop South American production numbers unchanged, while raising the 2016/17 and 2017/18 import estimates for China to 91 million and 94 million tons, respectively. USDA also lowered 2016/17 exports for Argentina and Brazil, likely because of the continued strong U.S. pace.

Corn was sharply lower on profit taking and technical selling. USDA raised the production guess for corn after last month’s larger than expected acreage number, while old and new crop ending stocks were up on the month. There are still a lot of concerns about weather, but some forecasts have moderated. New farm based production and prevent plant numbers are out in August. Ethanol futures were lower, despite some nominally friendly weekly numbers. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says production last week average 1.007 million barrels per day, down 7,000 on the week, and stocks were 21.181 million barrels, a week to week decrease of 390,000 barrels.

The wheat complex was sharply lower on profit taking and technical selling. The winter wheat production guess was up from June and spring wheat was larger than expected, with at least some improved chance for rain in the northern Plains. Old and new crop ending stocks estimates were above last month. USDA lowered 2017/18 world wheat ending stocks to 260.60 million tons, on a decrease in production, including the U.S. USDA did raise crop production estimates for Russia and the dozen smaller former Soviet states.

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