Market News

Corn up, soybeans down, back to watching planting weather

Soybeans were modestly lower on commercial and technical selling. The USDA lowered old crop ending stocks, the new crop estimate was a little smaller than expected, and USDA raised China’s old crop import guess. USDA increased South American production and export estimates. With this set of largely non-eventful numbers in the rear view, soybeans will likely go back to focusing on the potential for an increase in U.S. acreage because of corn planting delays. Soybean meal was mixed, consolidating, and bean oil was lower.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying. Old crop corn ending stocks were below last month and the new crop projection was under the average pre-report estimate. Those new crop estimates are highly tentative because of acreage uncertainties, with some acres probably switched to beans and others potentially lost outright. Ethanol futures were higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says production last week was 1.006 million barrels a day, up 20,000, while stocks were 23.055 million barrels, down 158,000.

The wheat complex was mostly modestly higher with Chicago and Minneapolis up and Kansas City mostly firm. Old crop wheat ending stocks were unchanged and the new crop guess was near the low end of estimates and should be less than where we finish this marketing year. The marketing year on wheat runs through May. This year’s winter wheat crop is expected to be down 25% from last year, but could fall even further as recent damage was not accounted for in this report. Still, the international numbers did reflect the bearish fundamental outlook, especially on the supply side of the ledger.

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