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Corn mixed, waiting for widespread planting

Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Still not a lot of clarity on trade talks with China. Some reports have them advancing, others have an agreement between the U.S. and China waiting until maybe as late as June. Soybeans are also monitoring weather in Argentina and Brazil, and outside of a few dry spot in Argentina, late development and harvest conditions look good. Brazil’s vegetable oils group, ABIOVE, raised its ending stocks estimate to 2.79 million tons, after raising its 2018 production total to 123.1 million tons. The group also raised 2019 ending stocks, while leaving exports unchanged at 70.1 million tons. Brokerage firm Safras e Mercado currently sees exports at 70 million tons. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was fractionally mixed. Corn is also waiting to see what happens with China, while getting ready for widespread U.S. planting. Delays are probable in parts of the Midwest and Plains, but while it’s still only March, April is coming up soon. The USDA’s prospective planting numbers are out March 29th, along with quarterly stocks. Corn is also watching conditions in South America. According to reports, Ukraine continues to export grains at a fast pace, with Kiev confirming an additional 700,000 tons of grain sales in the last week. Corn exports are now 18.4 million, up 69% on the year. Ethanol futures were lower. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly production and supply numbers are out Wednesday. The industry continues to monitor margins, along with potential demand from China. In addition to corn and ethanol, U.S. DDGS and sorghum are also potential purchase targets from Beijing. The USDA’s attaché in Japan has 2018/19 corn imports at 15.6 million tons, slightly more than the official guess, holding in 2019/20. The Colombian attaché expects imports of U.S. corn to reach record levels in 2019/20, hitting 5.6 million tons out of a 5.7 million-ton total.

The wheat complex was mixed. Chicago and Kansas City were down modestly on the bearish fundamentals, with less than a quarter remaining in the 2018/19 marketing year for wheat. The USDA’s updated supply and demand estimates are out April 9th. Flooding in the Northern Plains will likely delay spring planting, supporting Minneapolis. Probable delays would either mean later than ideal planting dates or possible switches to other crops, like soybeans. According to reports, Ukraine’s wheat exports are 12% behind last year’s pace at 12 million tons, with a 23% decline in feed wheat cancelling out an 8% rise in milling quality sales. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says 53% of winter crops are in good shape. DTN says Ethiopia is tendering for 400,000 tons of wheat. The USDA’s attaché in Egypt pegs 2019/20 wheat imports at 12.6 million tons, up 0.8% from 2018/19, with domestic production of 8.77 million tons, which would be an increase of nearly 4% on the marketing year.

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