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2013 production depends on rain

2012 corn and soybean production wasn’t as bad as some had feared, but one analyst tells Brownfield, 2013 could be a different story.

According to Arlan Suderman, Senior Market Analyst at Water Street Solutions, the big factor will be soil moisture recharging rainfall. Suderman says, “There’s many farmers in the northwestern Midwest, even those with irrigation, that they got this year’s good yields because of the soil moisture profile they had going into the growing season. That moisture isn’t there now – that’s a real legitimate concern.

So what’re the possibilities? As I look at it, if the rains come, it’ll take a lot of rain but it can happen, and we get the trend yields, I think we test December futures support at $4 [per bushel]. If the rains don’t come, then I think we test last year’s highs just below $8.50.”

USDA’s 2013 prospective plantings report is out March 28.

Suderman goes over the numbers and looks ahead (5 Minutes, 42 Seconds, MP3)

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