Inside D.C.

Rural vote put Trump over the top

The election of Donald J. Trump, Sr. as the 45^th president-elect of the U.S. has been described in a lot of ways, some unprintable, but all generally based upon how much of a surprise the election outcome was.  I admit, as a DC insider, I was among the pundits, pollsters, politicos and press who generally assumed America was not going elect a bombastic New York City billionaire as its president.  He could have the demeanor of Mother Theresa, and I still would have bet against him.

The big misses by prognosticators were certainly consistent.  Turns out all those folks said to be smart enough to know were all dead wrong about the congressional elections as well.   Even the stock market was supposed to drop like a rock because traders were positioned for a Hillary Clinton victory, with a defeated Trump screaming, “It’s rigged!”  Markets rallied post-election, mainly because the campaign was finally over and the “certainty index” began to rise.

There was great fussing about the future of Congress given media predictions that based upon Trump’s behavior the Senate would inevitably slip from Republican control to Democrat control, or at best be split 50/50 between Rs and Ds.  House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D, CA) bravely declared the possibility the Democrats would retake the House, and the media echoed the prediction.  All wrong.

In any event, as I’ve pored over the election coverage and burrowed into the demographics of the Trump victory, it’s clear he could not have pulled this off without the votes in rural America.  No matter your political leanings, this should be gratifying if only because it shows once again, it is not smart to take for granted or bet against the folks in the fly-over states.

There’s no denying this general election cycle has been the most “unconventional” ever.  Unfortunately, this reality did not translate into unconventional campaign strategies, save for Trump’s bunch. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R, WI) said of the “stunning” Trump victory, “Donald Trump heard a voice in the country no one else did.  He turned U.S. politics on its head.”

While Democrats focused on urban areas as they will – Clinton didn’t set foot in Wisconsin after she lost that state’s April primary to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I, VT) – Trump strategists focused and invested in galvanizing not only white guys without college degrees and younger blue collar first-time voters, but also with women and minorities feeling generally disenfranchised.  These folks ultimately voted their enlightened economic self interest as voters are wont to do.

Trump’s campaign also pushed hard in outstate communities across the country, shoving the “rural voter” lines of demarcation closer to the urban centers and picking up several so-called “collar communities” around big cities.  The roughly 70% of farmers and ranchers who said they’d vote GOP in early surveys, those producers who deplore federal regulation, a skewed tax code and a gridlocked Washington, DC, ended up closer to 77%.

Trump’s campaign set up and publicized a national Agriculture Advisory Committee, including several sitting and former governors, state legislators, real live farmers and ranchers and ag insiders.  Clinton’s campaign paid only occasional attention to agriculture.  One national association invited the Clinton campaign to send a speaker to address its board of directors on how Clinton would address agribusiness issues if elected.  The group was told it was too close to the election, the campaign was too busy, and it would have to decline the request.  The same invitation to the Trump campaign yielded a national campaign co-chair and senior advisor who spent nearly two hours with groups’ board and staff.

From the beginning of his run, Trump worked the last exposed nerve of the disenfranchised voter, giving a very loud voice to frustrations with a do-nothing Washington, DC, a lackluster economy, limited employment opportunities, immigration problems and a general feeling of insecurity.  Trump represents to them the ultimate DC outsider, a business guy who funded his own campaign and when the dust settled, owed no special interest — save for he “hidden Trump vote” — for getting him across the finish line first.

GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s mistake in 2012 was to rely on angry old white men to carry the day; Trump proved the fly-over states were critical in getting him to 270 electoral votes and beyond.  And, in the end, Clinton took the popular vote, but by less than 1%.

In the final analysis, both national parties have been reminded it’s a serious mistake to write off rural voters.  Both parties would be well served going into 2017 to remember the campaign promises made.