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NOAA raises hurricane season prediction despite expected El Niño

October 1, 2012 By Leave a Comment

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook issued NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.

The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.

The Complete NOAA Story

National Hurricane Center

Filed Under: 30-90 Day Outlook, Severe Weather

Tropical Weather Outlook: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Miriam

September 24, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Early Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on the center of Hurricane Miriam was located about 415 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Movement was toward the northwest near 13 MPH. This general motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds were near 105 MPH with higher gusts. Miriam is a Category Two Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and Miriam could become a major hurricane later Monday.

Pacific Basin Outlook

Atlantic Basin Outlook

National Hurricane Center

Filed Under: National Weather, Severe Weather

U.S. experiences warm, dry June; drought expands to 56% of Lower 48

July 31, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during June was 71.2°F, 2.0°F above the 20th century average, ranking 14th warmest June on record.

Scorching temperatures during the second half of the month broke or tied over 170 all-time high temperature records in cities across America. June temperatures also contributed to a record-warm first half of the year and the warmest 12-month period the nation has experienced since recordkeeping began in 1895.

June Weather Highlights

Filed Under: Commodity Forecast, National Weather, Severe Weather

Relentless heat wave pattern continues in many areas

July 2, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories continue into the beginning of the week over much of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and southern states as an upper level ridge of high pressure remains firmly in place.

Hundreds of daily high temperature records were broken this weekend as well as many all-time high temperature records.

Heat Index Forecasts

Filed Under: Featured, National Weather, Severe Weather Tagged With:

NOAA: Risk for major Spring flooding is low this year

May 11, 2012 By Leave a Comment

No area of the country faces a high risk of major to record spring flooding, largely due to the limited winter snowfall, according to NOAA’s annual Spring Outlook, which forecasts the potential for flooding from April to June.

The Full NOAA Outlook

Filed Under: A Look Ahead, National Weather, Severe Weather

More late-season snow for the northern Rockies, New England

April 27, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Low pressure just off the coast of Maine will move northward into eastern Canada by Friday evening, producing light accumulating snow across northern Maine.

An upper level trough over the northern Great Basin early today will eventually give way to an upper low across the Northern Rockies and High Plains Friday afternoon and evening. This will help set the stage for moderate to heavy snowfall across the Northern Rockies above 5000 to 6000 feet. This includes the Absaroka Range through the Tetons and Wind River Mountainds, where 2-day totals across the highest elevations in central Montana could exceed one foot (average between 12-18+ inches), the bulk of which would fall through Saturday morning.

24-Hour Snowfall Forecast

Filed Under: National Weather, Severe Weather

Tornado Outbreak Likely Saturday for Parts of the Central, Southern Plains

April 13, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The NWS Storm Prediction center is forecasting an increasing threat for severe thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains, with a Slight Risk Friday  afternoon into Friday night from northern Texas to Missouri. The threat increases significantly on Saturday, with a High Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Moderate and Slight Risk areas surround the High Risk area for Saturday and stretch from extreme southwestern Minnesota to central Texas. A tornado outbreak will be likely across the central and southern plains from late Saturday afternoon lasting through the evening and into the overnight period.

Severe Weather Outlook Areas

Filed Under: Commodity Forecast, National Weather, Severe Weather

In Illinois, February Tornadoes are rare but violent

March 13, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Harrisburg, Illinois was struck by a deadly tornado on February 29, leading to six reported deaths and widespread damage. While more common during spring and summer in Illinois, tornadoes sometimes occur in February, according to the Illinois State Water Survey.

Illinois State Water Survey

 

Out of 2,320 tornadoes reported in Illinois between 1950 and 2011, 39 of them have occurred in February. However, this small number caused 6 deaths and 28 serious injuries. With this latest event, the number of tornado-related deaths in February since 1950 has doubled.

The National Weather Service has identified the Harrisburg tornado as an EF-4 event with wind speeds up to 170 mph. The EF stands for the enhanced Fujita scale which uses the level of destruction to estimate wind speeds.

EF-4 tornadoes are relatively rare in Illinois. Out of 2,320 tornadoes reported in Illinois between 1950 and 2011, only 40 were in this category. However, they are very deadly. Of the 203 tornado-related deaths during that same period, 49 percent or 100 deaths came from EF-4 events. That is an average rate of 2.5 deaths per EF-4 event.

Before Harrisburg, the only other EF-4 tornadoes to strike Illinois in February was on February 25, 1956 when one passed south of St. Louis and into St. Clair County Illinois, causing 6 deaths in those two states.

The Harrisburg event is the worst tornado disaster in Illinois since the 2004 Utica EF-3 tornado that killed 8 people. Southern Illinois is home to the worst tornado disaster in U.S. history. On March 18, 1925, the infamous Tri-State Tornado caused 695 deaths as it moved through southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southern Indiana.

Filed Under: Commodity Forecast, Severe Weather

NOAA: U.S. experiences second warmest summer on record

December 3, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The blistering heat experienced by the nation during August, as well as the June through August months, marks the second warmest summer on record according to scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, N.C. The persistent heat, combined with below-average precipitation across the southern U.S. during August and the three summer months, continued a record-breaking drought across the region.

The average U.S. temperature in August was 75.7 degrees F, which is 3.0 degrees above the long-term (1901-2000) average, while the summertime temperature was 74.5 degrees F, which is 2.4 degrees above average. The warmest August on record for the contiguous United States was 75.8 degrees F in 1983, while its warmest summer on record at 74.6 degrees F occurred in 1936. Precipitation across the nation during August averaged 2.31 inches, 0.29 inches below the long-term average. The nationwide summer precipitation was 1.0 inch below average.

This monthly analysis, based on records dating back to 1895, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.

The Complete Story from NOAA

Filed Under: National Weather, Severe Weather

NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season update calls for increase in named storms

November 29, 2011 By Leave a Comment

NOAA has issued its updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, raising the number of expected named storms from its pre-season outlook issued in May

The Complete NOAA Outlook
National Hurricane Center

Filed Under: 30-90 Day Outlook, National Weather, Severe Weather
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