For Wednesday, there is an extremely critical fire weather area for a large part of the western half of New Mexico and portions of eastern Arizona.
Other critical areas surround that and extend into portions of southern Utah, southwestern Colorado and far southwestern Texas. There is also another critical fire area to watch in parts of Santa Barbara, CA including the Santa Ynez range.
For Wednesday, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the central Plains, upper Midwest and portions of the Carolinas.
Tuesday, there were over 120 reports of high wind and hail, primarily scattered over the Southeast and the Dakotas.
Here is a look at some of the potential or ongoing weather hazards and headlines ahead in the days to come:
River flooding continuing for parts of northern Washington, May 21-22.
Much above normal temperatures for parts of the western U.S., May 21.
Much above normal temperatures for the central and southern High Plains, May 22-23.
High winds, blowing dust, and enhanced wildfire danger for the southwestern U.S., May 22-24.
Periods of heavy rain for south Florida, May 21-27.
Severe drought for parts of the Southeast, central Rockies, southern Plains, Southwest, interior portions of California and the Great Basin.
No area of the country faces a high risk of major to record spring flooding, largely due to the limited winter snowfall, according to NOAA’s annual Spring Outlook, which forecasts the potential for flooding from April to June.
Low pressure just off the coast of Maine will move northward into eastern Canada by Friday evening, producing light accumulating snow across northern Maine.
An upper level trough over the northern Great Basin early today will eventually give way to an upper low across the Northern Rockies and High Plains Friday afternoon and evening. This will help set the stage for moderate to heavy snowfall across the Northern Rockies above 5000 to 6000 feet. This includes the Absaroka Range through the Tetons and Wind River Mountainds, where 2-day totals across the highest elevations in central Montana could exceed one foot (average between 12-18+ inches), the bulk of which would fall through Saturday morning.
The NWS Storm Prediction center is forecasting an increasing threat for severe thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains, with a Slight Risk Friday afternoon into Friday night from northern Texas to Missouri. The threat increases significantly on Saturday, with a High Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Moderate and Slight Risk areas surround the High Risk area for Saturday and stretch from extreme southwestern Minnesota to central Texas. A tornado outbreak will be likely across the central and southern plains from late Saturday afternoon lasting through the evening and into the overnight period.
Harrisburg, Illinois was struck by a deadly tornado on February 29, leading to six reported deaths and widespread damage. While more common during spring and summer in Illinois, tornadoes sometimes occur in February, according to the Illinois State Water Survey.
Illinois State Water Survey
Out of 2,320 tornadoes reported in Illinois between 1950 and 2011, 39 of them have occurred in February. However, this small number caused 6 deaths and 28 serious injuries. With this latest event, the number of tornado-related deaths in February since 1950 has doubled.
The National Weather Service has identified the Harrisburg tornado as an EF-4 event with wind speeds up to 170 mph. The EF stands for the enhanced Fujita scale which uses the level of destruction to estimate wind speeds.
EF-4 tornadoes are relatively rare in Illinois. Out of 2,320 tornadoes reported in Illinois between 1950 and 2011, only 40 were in this category. However, they are very deadly. Of the 203 tornado-related deaths during that same period, 49 percent or 100 deaths came from EF-4 events. That is an average rate of 2.5 deaths per EF-4 event.
Before Harrisburg, the only other EF-4 tornadoes to strike Illinois in February was on February 25, 1956 when one passed south of St. Louis and into St. Clair County Illinois, causing 6 deaths in those two states.
The Harrisburg event is the worst tornado disaster in Illinois since the 2004 Utica EF-3 tornado that killed 8 people. Southern Illinois is home to the worst tornado disaster in U.S. history. On March 18, 1925, the infamous Tri-State Tornado caused 695 deaths as it moved through southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southern Indiana.
The blistering heat experienced by the nation during August, as well as the June through August months, marks the second warmest summer on record according to scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, N.C. The persistent heat, combined with below-average precipitation across the southern U.S. during August and the three summer months, continued a record-breaking drought across the region.
The average U.S. temperature in August was 75.7 degrees F, which is 3.0 degrees above the long-term (1901-2000) average, while the summertime temperature was 74.5 degrees F, which is 2.4 degrees above average. The warmest August on record for the contiguous United States was 75.8 degrees F in 1983, while its warmest summer on record at 74.6 degrees F occurred in 1936. Precipitation across the nation during August averaged 2.31 inches, 0.29 inches below the long-term average. The nationwide summer precipitation was 1.0 inch below average.
This monthly analysis, based on records dating back to 1895, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48-hours.
NOAA has issued its updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, raising the number of expected named storms from its pre-season outlook issued in May
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