An unusually cool pattern across the Heartland

A robust monsoon surge interacting with the tail of a cold front will result in a continuation of locally heavy showers from the Southwest and Intermountain West to the southern Plains. During the next 5 days, additional rainfall could reach 3 to 5 inches or more in the Rockies of Colorado and northeastern Mexico. Meanwhile, rainfall totals should range from 1 to 3 inches on the southern Plains and 1 to 2 inches across the Intermountain West. In contrast, hot, mostly dry weather will cover the Northwest. Farther east, several days of cooler-than-normal weather will dominate the central and eastern U.S. Heavy rain will end later Monday in the Northeast, but scattered showers will linger for several days in the Great Lakes region and across the Deep South.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for above-normal temperatures in the Far West and across the nation’s northern tier, while cooler-than-normal conditions will prevail from the central and southern Rockies to the middle and southern Atlantic States. Meanwhile, near- to above-normal rainfall across the majority of the nation will contrast with drier-than-normal weather in portions of the central U.S., stretching from Louisiana northward into the upper Midwest.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Heat wave continues for now on the central, southern Plains

Across the Corn Belt, a return to hot weather in the middle Missouri Valley contrasts with cool conditions farther east. Showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front are spreading across the western Corn Belt. Conditions overall remain mostly favorable for corn and soybeans, despite some short-term drying.

On the Plains, cool air is arriving along the Canadian border, but hot weather covers the remainder of the region. Friday’s high temperatures will reach or exceed 100° in many locations from Nebraska southward, temporarily increasing stress on summer crops — especially those in the reproductive stage of development.

In the South, very warm, humid conditions linger along and near the Gulf Coast. Beneficial showers are gradually subsiding across the lower Southeast, while dry weather prevails farther north and west.

In the West, shower activity has diminished and is mostly confined to the Four Corners States. Meanwhile, temperatures are rebounding but remain at mostly below-normal levels in the Northwest. Elsewhere, gusty winds in the Great Basin and the Intermountain West remain a concern with respect to wildfire development.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

An unseasonably cool pattern ahead for the Heartland

A slow-moving cold front will trigger showers and thunderstorms as it tracks across the northern and central Plains into the Corn Belt, reaching the Atlantic Coast States by Monday. Rain will be heaviest in the Great Lakes region, where totals could top 2 inches in potentially severe thunderstorms. Ahead of the front, sweltering heat will briefly expand from the southern Plains into the Southeast, with highs approaching or topping 100° before the front’s arrival. Behind the cold front, sharply cooler weather will settle over most of the nation east of the Rockies by Tuesday. Meanwhile, the tail end of the front will stall across the central Rockies and southern Plains, where locally heavy downpours are possible by early next week.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for much-below-normal temperatures from the central Rockies to the East Coast, while hotter-than-normal conditions prevail west of the Rockies. Drier-than-normal conditions are expected from the northern Pains into the Corn Belt, while above-normal rainfall develops from the Great Basin to the southern Plains and Delta.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

A very cool pattern ahead for most of the Heartland

Cool weather in the Midwest will be reinforced early next week by a strong push of Canadian air. Heat across the High Plains will be relegated to the South, while a brief cool spell in the Northwest will be replaced by a weekend return to hot weather. During the next 5 days, 1- to 2-inch rainfall totals can be expected in parts of the northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast, as well as the Pacific Northwest and Four Corners.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures east of the Rockies, except for hotter-than-normal conditions in the Deep South. Heat will also dominate the West. Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall in southern Texas and from the Pacific Northwest into the upper Midwest will contrast with wetter-than-normal weather across the southern Plains, Four Corners States, and from the lower Great Lakes region to the Atlantic Seaboard.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Cooler weather returning to the Corn Belt

Across the Corn Belt, cool weather has returned in the wake of a cold front’s passage. The front, which is moving into the Ohio Valley, is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Corn Belt. On July 20, topsoil moisture was rated less than 20% very short to short in all Midwestern States except Nebraska (32% very short to short) and Missouri (23%)—and even those two values are below average for this time of year.

On the Plains, clusters of thunderstorms dot the northern half of the region. Meanwhile, hot weather is overspreading the High Plains, where Wednesday’s high temperatures will approach 100° in many locations. Despite substantial rainfall since late May, subsoil moisture (on July 20) remains at least 60% very short to short in New Mexico (66%), Oklahoma (63%), and Texas (60%).

In the South, hot, humid weather in advance of a cold front is promoting a rapid crop development pace. Rain is still needed in parts of the Southeast to alleviate crop stress. On July 20, topsoil moisture was rated at least 40% very short to short in South Carolina (54%), Kentucky (48%), and Virginia (44%).

In the West, cooler air has spread into the Pacific Coast States, but hot conditions prevail farther inland. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect in parts of the Desert Southwest, where Wednesday’s high temperatures will exceed 110°. Showers are aiding wildfire containment efforts in the Northwest, but an enhanced risk of new wildfire activity exists in the Great Basin and then northern Intermountain West.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

Much cooler pattern ahead east of the Rockies

During the remainder of the week, a pair of cold fronts will push southeastward across the Midwest and into the South and East. As a result, 5-day rainfall totals could reach 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts, across the nation’s northern tier and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. Meanwhile, a few showers will return to the Southwest, but California will remain seasonably dry. Rapid temperature fluctuations can be expected with the cold frontal passages, but late-week heat will be most prominent across the High Plains.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures east of the Rockies, except for warmer-than-normal weather in the Deep South. Hot weather will also dominate the West. Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall across the northern Plains, Northwest, and southern Texas will contrast with wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the southern Plains and the eastern one-third of the U.S.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Heat, high humidity from the southern Plains to the Midwest

Across the Corn Belt, cool weather is returning to the upper Midwest, following a brief period of beneficial warmth. Meanwhile, very warm weather continues across the southern and eastern Corn Belt in advance of a cold front, which is producing widely scattered showers. On July 20, corn reaching the Silking stage of development was 15 to 20 percentage points behind the 5-year average pace in Minnesota, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania.

On the Plains, hot weather continues across the southern half of the region, where Tuesday’s temperatures will again approach, reach, or exceed 100°. However, scattered showers on the southern High Plains are helping to offset the effects of heat. Meanwhile, cooler air is overspreading the northern Plains.

In the South, warm, humid weather prevails in advance of an approaching cold front. Southeastern showers are benefiting summer crops and pastures; on July 20, only one-third to one-half of the pastures were rated in good to excellent condition in South Carolina (33%), Kentucky (43%), Virginia (45%), and North Carolina (46%).

In the West, scattered showers and cooler conditions are aiding wildfire containment efforts in Washington and Oregon. Still, the Carlton Complex in northern Washington—sparked by lightning on July 14—has charred more than 240,000 acres of timber and brush and is less than 20% contained. Elsewhere, cooler weather is easing irrigation demands in California, but hot, mostly dry weather prevails in the Four Corners States.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

Unseasonably cool weather set to return

A cold front will bring a return to showery weather across the nation’s heartland, starting with thunderstorms in the far upper Midwest on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday, showers will sweep across the remainder of the Midwest, while a new cold front will arrive in the Northwest. The front’s passage will lower temperatures that have recently climbed to above-normal levels in the Midwest and have briefly topped 100° on the Plains as far north as South Dakota. Toward week’s end, a new round of showers will overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest, while the original cold front will settle across the South and East. Five-day rainfall totals could reach 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts, in a broad area covering the North, Southeast, and Midwest. Elsewhere, generally dry weather will prevail from California to the central and southern High Plains, except for scattered Monsoon showers in the central and southern Rockies.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures across the Midwest and Northeast, while warmer-than-normal weather will cover the southern Plains, southern Florida, and the West. Meanwhile, near- to below-normal rainfall from the Pacific Coast to the Plains will contrast with wetter-than-normal conditions across most of the eastern half of the U.S.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

A brief spell of heat, humidity for the Heartland

Across the Corn Belt, humid weather accompanies near- to above-normal temperatures. As a result, Heat Advisories are in effect Monday in the western Corn Belt, where temperatures will approach 95°. Isolated thunderstorms are confined to the far upper Midwest. Abundant soil moisture reserves are maintaining generally favorable conditions for reproductive corn and soybeans, despite the brief period of hot, humid weather.

On the Plains, hot, humid weather prevails in advance of a cold front. Showers are widely scattered and limited to northern areas. For the second day in a row, temperatures will reach or exceed 100° as far north as South Dakota. Heat Advisories are in effect for Monday across portions of Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas.

In the South, near- to above-normal temperatures are promoting rapid crop development. Across the Southeast, widespread showers are slowing fieldwork but boosting soil moisture for pastures and summer crops.

In the West, cooler weather is aiding wildfire containment efforts in Washington and Oregon. The destructive Carlton Complex in northern Washington has charred nearly 240,000 acres of vegetation and destroyed more than 150 homes. Cooler air is also overspreading the remainder of the West, accompanied by isolated showers.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

Warm; wet across the eastern Corn Belt

A disturbance currently over the Delta will drift eastward, reaching the Appalachians by early next week. Rainfall associated with the disturbance will be heaviest in the South, with 1 to 3 inches likely across the Gulf Coast and Southeast, while lighter showers fall farther north from the Tennessee Valley into eastern portions of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Elsewhere, only light showers — totaling less than an inch — can be expected across the remainder of the country during the next 5 days, except possibly for some heavier rain late in the period across the north-central U.S. Cooler-than-normal conditions will persist through the weekend across the eastern half of the U.S., while hot weather returns to the Plains. Elsewhere, the Northwestern heat wave will end during the weekend as cooler air overspreads the Pacific Coast States and Great Basin.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for near- to above-normal temperatures nationwide, except for cooler-than-normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall across southern Texas and from the Great Basin eastward to the central Plains will contrast with wetter-than-normal weather across much of the eastern half of the U.S.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook