An active pattern across the upper Midwest, parts of the Plains

An upper trough will continue to move from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest. During its evolution, a series of disturbances aloft will work their way across the Intermountain West and into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. These impulses will help produce an extensive region of precipitation. Enough cold air aloft is available to produce snow at some of the highest elevations.

Ahead of the upper trough along the surface front, low-level moisture will be available to trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Northern and Central Plains and into the Upper Midwest.

Hot and dry conditions will continue across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners Region.

An upper trough along the East Coast will finally begin to slowly shift north and east.

Daytime heating will continue to trigger thunderstorms over the region. Wet weather will continue over southern Florida.

The Weather Map
24-Hour Precipitation Forecast
National Radar
Weather Bulletins

NOAA: Past 12 months were warmest Nation has experienced

Warmer and drier than average temperatures continued for much of the nation in April.

These temperatures, when combined with the first quarter and previous 11 months, calculate to the warmest year-to-date and 12-month periods on record for the contiguous United States.

The Complete NOAA Story

La Nina fading, expected to end soon

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean swing back and forth every few years (sometimes more) like an irregular pendulum. The warm phase is known as El Niño; the cool phase—which it has been in for the past two winters—is called La Niña.

According to NOAA’s April 2012 ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, La Niña is fading and will likely be over by the end of April.

The Complete NOAA Story

NOAA: Winter season fourth warmest on record for U.S.

According to NOAA scientists, warmer-than-average temperatures dominated the northern and eastern regions of the U.S. this winter. Additionally, national snow cover extent was below average.

The Complete NOAA story

NOAA: Risk for major Spring flooding is low this year

No area of the country faces a high risk of major to record spring flooding, largely due to the limited winter snowfall, according to NOAA’s annual Spring Outlook, which forecasts the potential for flooding from April to June.

The Full NOAA Outlook

NOAA: Over 15,000 Records Broken; March 2012 Warmest on Record

According to NOAA scienticts, record and near-record breaking temperatures dominated the eastern two-thirds of the nation and contributed to the warmest March on record for the contiguous United States, a record that dates back to 1895.

The Complete NOAA Story

More late-season snow for the northern Rockies, New England

Low pressure just off the coast of Maine will move northward into eastern Canada by Friday evening, producing light accumulating snow across northern Maine.

An upper level trough over the northern Great Basin early today will eventually give way to an upper low across the Northern Rockies and High Plains Friday afternoon and evening. This will help set the stage for moderate to heavy snowfall across the Northern Rockies above 5000 to 6000 feet. This includes the Absaroka Range through the Tetons and Wind River Mountainds, where 2-day totals across the highest elevations in central Montana could exceed one foot (average between 12-18+ inches), the bulk of which would fall through Saturday morning.

24-Hour Snowfall Forecast

Tornado Outbreak Likely Saturday for Parts of the Central, Southern Plains

The NWS Storm Prediction center is forecasting an increasing threat for severe thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains, with a Slight Risk Friday  afternoon into Friday night from northern Texas to Missouri. The threat increases significantly on Saturday, with a High Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Moderate and Slight Risk areas surround the High Risk area for Saturday and stretch from extreme southwestern Minnesota to central Texas. A tornado outbreak will be likely across the central and southern plains from late Saturday afternoon lasting through the evening and into the overnight period.

Severe Weather Outlook Areas

Another “early-Spring this year, astronomically-speaking

This year, spring (astronomical) made its earliest arrival since the late 19th century: 1896, to be exact.

The Complete Story

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: La Niña is back

La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Recently, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.

NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.