Much-needed rain for the upper Midwest

Daily showers and thunderstorms will linger through week’s end in parts of the East, particularly across the Mid-Atlantic States.

Meanwhile, a series of disturbances will maintain cool conditions and periods of rain from the Pacific Northwest into the upper Midwest. Five-day rainfall totals could reach 2 to 4 inches in the upper Midwest and 1 to 2 inches on the northern Plains. In contrast, mostly dry weather will prevail into early next week across the southern half of the U.S., excluding the Atlantic Coast States.

Late in the week and into the weekend, heat will build across the South, East, and Midwest, with many locations expecting several days of 90-degree heat.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for near- to above-normal temperatures nationwide, except for cooler-than-normal conditions from the Pacific Northwest to the upper Midwest. Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall from the Pacific Coast to the southern Plains will contrast with wetter-than-normal weather from the northern Plains to the Atlantic Coast States.

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Weather Hazards Outlook, May 21 – June 1, 2012

Here is a look at some of the potential or ongoing weather hazards and headlines ahead in the days to come:

River flooding continuing for parts of northern Washington, May 21-22.

Much above normal temperatures for parts of the western U.S., May 21.

Much above normal temperatures for the central and southern High Plains, May 22-23.

High winds, blowing dust, and enhanced wildfire danger for the southwestern U.S., May 22-24.

Periods of heavy rain for south Florida, May 21-27.

Severe drought for parts of the Southeast, central Rockies, southern Plains, Southwest, interior portions of California and the Great Basin.

Weather Hazard Outlook Map

Weather Hazard 3- 7 Day Outlook Map

Weather Hazard 8 – 14 Day Outlook Map

NOAA: Risk for major Spring flooding is low this year

No area of the country faces a high risk of major to record spring flooding, largely due to the limited winter snowfall, according to NOAA’s annual Spring Outlook, which forecasts the potential for flooding from April to June.

The Full NOAA Outlook

A colder, snowier Winter ahead for the Badger State?

La Nina is returning, and will continue through this coming winter season.

For south-central and southeast Wisconsin, this may bring increased chances for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation (and snowfall). However, the correlation between La Nina and winter temperatures and precipitation in south central and southeast Wisconsin is not as robust as it is with El Nino.

The latest long range temperature forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center suggest equal chances for above, near and below normal temperatures for south central and southeast Wisconsin for meteorological winter (December 2011, January and February 2012).

The latest long range precipitation forecast from the Climate Prediction Center suggest increased chances for above normal precipitation for southeast and parts of south central Wisconsin for meteorological winter, with equal chances for above, near and below normal precipitation elsewhere across the area.

Temperature Outlook
Precipitation Outlook