A drier spell ahead for much of the Heartland

The remnants of Hurricane Odile will continue to influence Southwestern conditions, with an additional 2 to 6 inches of rain expected during the next 5 days in southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico. Some of the heaviest rain will occur later Wednesday and Wednesday night, as Odile moves ashore and begins to weaken. Meanwhile, late-season warmth will continue across the remainder of the West and spread across the nation’s mid-section late in the week. During the weekend, near- to above-normal temperatures will dominate the U.S. Elsewhere, showers will be mostly confined to the Pacific Northwest and the Deep South—from Texas to Florida. During the weekend, however, a cold front will spark widespread showers from the Great Lakes region to the southern Plains.

 

Looking, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for above-normal temperatures in Florida and along and northwest of a line from Arizona to Minnesota. Cooler-than-normal conditions will stretch from the southern Rockies into the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic States. Meanwhile, near- to below-normal precipitation across the majority of the U.S. will contrast with wetter-than-normal weather from the Four Corners region into the Rio Grande Valley, along the Gulf Coast, and in the middle and southern Atlantic States.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Seasonal pattern for the Heartland

Remnant moisture from former Hurricane Odile will continue to spread into the Southwest, where heavy showers and flash flooding can be expected during the next several days. Five-day rainfall totals could reach 2 to 6 inches or more in parts of Arizona and New Mexico, with lighter amounts farther to the north and west. Meanwhile, showers will also linger from coastal Texas to Florida, where 1- to 3-inch totals may occur. Toward week’s end, showers and thunderstorms will produce 1- to 2-inch rainfall totals from the Great Lakes region to southern Plains. Elsewhere, late-season heat—currently in place from California to the northern and central Rockies—will gradually spread eastward across the nation’s mid-section.

 

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for near- to above-normal temperatures nationwide. The greatest likelihood of warmer-than-normal weather will be from the Pacific Coast States to the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, near- to above-normal precipitation across the South, East, and lower Midwest will contrast with drier-than-normal conditions from the Pacific Northwest into the upper Midwest.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

An early Autumn-like feel to cover the Heartland

The season’s first significant push of cold air will continue to overspread areas east of the Rockies. The center of the high-pressure system will move into Montana on Thursday, settle across the north-central U.S. on Friday, and reach the upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday morning. Widespread freezes can be expected on the northern High Plains on September 11-12, while frost and scattered freezes will affect the upper Midwest on September 12-13. At this time, a widespread, growing season-ending freeze is not expected in the Midwest. In advance of the cold wave, additional rainfall could reach 1 to 2 inches or more from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region. Similar rainfall amounts can be expected in the Southeast, where rain will linger into the weekend. Elsewhere, heat will build across the Pacific Coast States and spread across other areas of the West during the weekend.

 

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for near- to below-normal temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., except for warm weather across Florida and southern Texas. Warmer-than-normal weather will also cover the northern High Plains and much of the West. Meanwhile, below-normal precipitation from the northern Rockies into the Midwest and Mid-South will contrast with wetter-than-normal.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Much cooler days ahead for the Heartland

For the remainder of the week, a cold front will remain the focus for widespread, locally severe thunderstorms. The front, currently draped from the Great Lakes region to the southern Rockies, will continue to entrain tropical moisture, leading to event-total precipitation that could reach 2 to 4 inches in the southern Rockies and locally 1 to 2 inches from the southern Plains into the Northeast. During the weekend, the front will interact with warm, humid air over the Southeast, leading to another area of rain—1 to 3 inches or more. In contrast, dry weather will persist in the Pacific Coast States. A brief surge of cool air in the front’s wake will be quickly replaced late-season warmth. However, a strong surge of cool, Canadian air will reach the northern Plains and upper Midwest by September 9.

 

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures across the Rockies, Plains, and Midwest, while warmer-than-normal weather will be limited to Maine, the Deep South, the Pacific Coast States, and the Great Basin. Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains will contrast with wetter-than-normal conditions east of a line from Texas to Minnesota.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Thunderstorms move through Midwest

For the remainder of Wednesday, thunderstorms will become more numerous across the upper Midwest, while showers will also occur in southern Texas and the Southeast. During the second half of the week, the interaction between the Southwestern monsoon circulation and a cold front will result in locally heavy showers. Five-day rainfall totals could reach 1 to 3 inches in the Southeast and 1 to 2 inches from the Southwest into the Great Lakes States. Mostly dry weather will prevail, however, from the Pacific Coast to the northern Plains. Meanwhile, late-season heat will dominate the U.S., except for a brief surge of cool air from the Northwest into the Plains and Midwest.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for above-normal temperatures in the Pacific Coast States and from the southern Plains into the Southeast, while cooler-than-normal conditions will prevail from the central Rockies into the upper Midwestern, Great Lakes, and Northeastern States. Meanwhile, near- to above-normal rainfall across most of the U.S. will contrast with drier-than-normal weather in southern Texas and from Oregon and California to the northern Intermountain West.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

A wet pattern continues across the Heartland

High pressure will slide off the Atlantic Coast, allowing heat and humidity to build east of the Mississippi, accompanied by afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, an upper-air disturbance will produce a more concentrated area of rainfall from the Midwest into the Northeast. Another area of low pressure and its associated cold front will generate showers in northern portions of the Rockies and Plains, and renew the risk for heavy rain in the northern and western Corn Belt by early next week. Farther south, a nearly-stationary disturbance in the western Gulf will trigger locally heavy downpours in southern Texas, but tropical storm development is not expected. Out west, dry, hot weather will replace recent rainfall in the Great Basin and Rockies, while heat and dryness will prevail in drought-afflicted California, Oregon, and central Washington.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for near- to above-normal temperatures across much of the contiguous U.S., except for cooler-than-normal conditions over the northwestern quarter of the nation. Meanwhile, above-normal rainfall over the central and eastern U.S. — except for New England — will contrast with drier-than-normal weather from the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin southeastward into the Four Corners and western Texas.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Active pattern ahead from the Plains, eastward

A series of disturbances crossing the northern half of the nation will remain the focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic States, resulting in 5-day rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches or more. Toward week’s end, a strong cold front will produce a final round of heavy rain, followed by unseasonably cool conditions, across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Weekend minimum temperatures near 40° are possible across the northern High Plains. In advance of the late-week cold front, heat will briefly surge northward, resulting in several days of temperatures near 95° as far north as the southern Corn Belt. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather will persist across the south-central U.S., while cooler air will continue to overspread the West.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures from the Rockies to the upper Great Lakes region, while hotter-than-normal conditions will dominate New England, the Far West, and the Deep South. Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall in southern and western Texas and the Pacific Northwest will contrast with wetter-than-normal weather in most areas east of the Rockies.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

An active pattern to evolve across much of the Heartland

For the remainder of this week, unsettled, showery weather will cover the majority of the U.S. Rain will be heaviest from the northern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic States, resulting in 1- to 4-inch totals. Meanwhile, showers will become more widespread in the Four Corners States, where rainfall could reach 1 to 3 inches in a few spots. In contrast, little or no rain will fall in the south-central U.S. or the Far West. Elsewhere, hot weather will encompass much of the central and eastern U.S. during the next several days, while cool conditions will overspread the West. During the mid- to late-week period, temperatures should approach or reach 95° in the southern Corn Belt.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures from the Intermountain West into the upper Midwest, while, warmer-than-normal weather will cover much of the remainder of the country. The greatest likelihood of hot weather will be across the South. Meanwhile, near- to above-normal rainfall in most of the country will contrast with drier-than-normal conditions in the northeastern and south-central U.S.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Near seasonal pattern across the Heartland

Heavy rain will linger Wednesday in the Northeast and into Thursday in northern New England, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain possible. Showers will linger for much of the week across Florida, where totals could reach 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts. Farther west, mostly dry weather will persist across the southern Plains, but late-week showers will overspread the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest. Hot weather will continue on the High Plains and return—during the weekend—to the Northwest. Elsewhere, locally heavy showers in the West will yield to somewhat drier conditions, although 5-day totals could reach 1 to 2 inches or more from the Four Corners States northward to the northern Rockies.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for near- to above-normal temperatures nationwide, except for cooler-than-normal conditions across parts of the Intermountain West. Meanwhile, near- to below-normal rainfall from the Pacific Coast to the Plains will contrast with wetter-than-normal weather from the Mississippi River to the Atlantic Seaboard.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

A wetter pattern ahead for parts of the Plains, Corn Belt

Looking ahead, a pair of slow-moving disturbances — one currently located over Louisiana and the other over southeastern Georgia — will generate showers and thunderstorms from the Delta to the central and southern Atlantic Coast States, with potentially heavy downpours possible from eastern South Carolina into the lower Delmarva. Meanwhile, a humid air mass over the Midwest will lead to scattered, mostly light showers, with more organized rain activity developing next week as a frontal system approaches. Monsoon showers are expected to persist from the central Rockies into the Four Corners region. Farther north, hot, mostly dry weather will prevail from the Northwest to the northern Plains, where daytime highs will average up to 10° above normal.

The 6- to 10-day outlook calls for cooler- and wetter-than-normal weather across most areas from the central Rockies to the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Above-normal temperatures will be confined to the Pacific Coast States as well as the Rio Grande Valley and Southeast, while drier-than-normal conditions are confined to southern-most portions of the U.S., the Pacific Northwest, and Upper Midwest.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook