El Nino, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.

NOAA expects this El Nino to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10.

El Nino Updates

To the north and east, drought in Washington and along the Idaho/Montana border is expected to persist and expand to cover much of eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and adjacent Montana. Meanwhile, limited relief is expected for drought areas along and near the Idaho/Wyoming border.

Limited relief is also forecast for the drought affecting part of the western Great Lakes region, primarily later in the period, but more robust relief appears on tap for the lingering drought areas in southern Texas.

Across western Ohio and adjacent parts of Indiana and southeastern Michigan, sub-normal precipitation totals have been observed for the past several weeks, and with this pattern expected to continue through the forecast period, drought development is anticipated in these areas.

U.S. Drought Monitor
Seasonal Drought Outlook (Map)