The drought outlook for January 19 – April 30, 2012 was based upon climate anomalies associated with La Niña, short to medium range forecasts, climatology, and initial conditions.

Frequent periods of precipitation somewhat improved drought conditions across the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast during the past two months. However, a return of dry weather and the ongoing La Niña favor persistence across most of eastern New Mexico, Texas, southern Kansas, western Oklahoma, and Texas.

Farther east, persistence or development can be expected across much of the lower Southeast, with the highest forecast confidence in Florida. Some improvement is possible along the northern drought boundary in the South with short and medium-term heavy precipitation expected, plus favorable odds of above-normal February-March-April precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Great Lakes region.

The lack of early winter precipitation, unexpected in the Northwest during a La Niña, resulted in moderate drought development and expansion of abnormal dryness across eastern Washington, southern Idaho, most of Oregon, California, and Nevada, and northern Utah. However, short and medium-term forecasts and the 3-month precipitation outlook favor improvement in northern sections (Washington, Oregon, northern California), with some improvement in northeastern California and northwestern Nevada.

Despite the early winter snowfall in Arizona and New Mexico, the odds for drought persistence and development across the Southwest are elevated. Therefore, persistence or development is forecasted across central and southern California, Arizona, southern sections of Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, and western New Mexico.

A relatively dry winter climatology and equal odd chances (1- and 3-month outlooks) elevates the chances for persistence across the western Corn Belt and upper Midwest. An exception was near Lake Superior (Some Improvement) where the 3-month precipitation outlook slightly favored above-normal precipitation.

U.S. Drought Monitor
Seasonal Drought Outlook Map
NOAA’s Seasonal (30 & 90 Day) Outlooks