Precipitation from the Plains to the Southern U.S.

On the Plains, dry weather has returned to southern portions of the region, following recent rain and snow. Farther north, snow is reversing a short-term drying on the central Plains and establishing or improving winter wheat’s protective snow cover across the northern and central Plains.

Across the Corn Belt, snow, rain and sleet is expanding northeastward. The latest round of wintry weather is adding to an already impressive snow cover in the western Corn Belt, where depths greater than a foot remain common.

In the South, freezing rain is glazing the southern Appalachians and the neighboring piedmont region, while locally heavy showers and thunderstorms are maintaining excessively wet conditions in parts of the Southeast. Farther north, heavy snow is developing across the southern Mid-Atlantic region.

In the West, Pacific moisture continues to spread inland across northern and central California and the Northwest. The precipitation is boosting high-elevation snow packs and aiding pastures and winter grains.

An active pattern to continue

A major winter storm will continue to affect most areas from the Plains to the East Coast. For the remainder of Friday, generally light snow will fall across the northern Plains and much of the Midwest. Farther east, heavy snow will develop across the Mid-Atlantic States, while freezing rain will glaze the southern Appalachians and adjacent foothills. Meanwhile, locally heavy rain will soak the Southeast.

During the weekend, cold, dry weather will overspread the eastern one-third of the U.S., although snow will linger through Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic States. In fact, cold air will encompass most of the U.S., although freezes are not expected in winter agricultural areas of the Deep South.

By early next week, a new storm will take shape over the nation’s midsection, resulting in a new round of snow across parts of the Plains on February 7-8, the Midwest on February 8-9, and the Northeast on February 9-10.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures from the eastern Rockies to the East Coast, with warmer-than-normal weather confined to areas near the northern Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, above-normal precipitation from California to the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast States will contrast with drier-than-normal conditions across much of the northern half of the U.S.

Severe Weather Outlook

Severe thunderstorms are possible late Friday afternoon and Friday night across the Florida Peninsula.

Elsewhere, no organized areas of severe weather are expected over the remainder of the Nation through Sunday.

Current Severe Weather Watches
Weather Alerts

An active pattern across the southern U.S.

An active weather pattern will continue into early next week across the South and East. The first of two significant weather systems will affect the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic States through early Wednesday. Frozen precipitation will cause travel disruptions from the central and southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain.

During the mid- to late-week period, a stronger storm will develop across the southwestern and south-central U.S. Rainfall could reach 2 to 5 inches across the South, while frozen precipitation may affect a broad area stretching from the Southwest to the Mid-Atlantic States.

Elsewhere, significant precipitation will be confined to the West Coast States, where 5-day totals could reach 1 to 3 inches.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures across southern portions of the Rockies and Plains and the eastern one-third of the U.S., while warmer-than-normal weather will be limited to the northern High Plains and the Northwest. Meanwhile, wetter-than-normal conditions in California and the south-central U.S. will contrast with below-normal precipitation in the Northwest and from the Midwest into the Northeast.

Seasonal pattern across the Heartland

On the Plains, cool, dry weather prevails. Most of the wheat crop continues to overwinter well. At the end of January, the portion of the winter wheat crop rated in very poor to poor condition included 29% in Texas, 11% in Kansas, 10% in Montana, 6% in Nebraska, and 4% in South Dakota.

Across the Corn Belt, colder air is overspreading western areas. Meanwhile, snow showers linger in the eastern Corn Belt. Average snow depths remain greater than 10 inches in Iowa and the Dakotas. In South Dakota, the corn harvest was 95% complete by the end of January. At the same time, 21% of the Illinois soft red winter wheat crop was rated in very poor to poor condition, in part due to late planting and excessive wetness.

In the South, rain is maintaining soggy conditions in the southern Atlantic States, while frozen precipitation (mostly sleet and freezing rain) is falling in the southern Appalachians and adjacent foothills.

In the West, widely-scattered rain and snow showers are confined to the Northwest. Cool but dry weather favors winter fieldwork activities in California and the Desert Southwest.

An active pattern continues

Rain will develop and move northward across the Southeast into the southern Mid-Atlantic as an area of low pressure organizes over the Gulf of Mexico. Rain may be heavy at times across Georgia and the Carolinas. Sub-freezing temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere will produce a wintry mix across parts of the North Carolina Piedmont and the southern Appalachians Tuesday morning.

As a upper level disturbance moves across the Ohio Valley, light precipitation will extend through the Mid-Atlantic later Tuesday, with light snows developing from the central Appalachians to the northern Mid-Atlantic.

An area of low pressure well off of the Pacific Northwest coast will weaken over the next couple of days as it is driven eastward by a stronger system making its way across the eastern Pacific. Light rains and snows will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern California into the northern Intermountain region.

Light snow from the eastern Great Lakes, southward

A disturbance in the upper wind flow over the Gulf Coast will move toward the Mid-Atlantic, in combination with a low developing off the Southeast coast. This will spread moisture inland. Cold air in the lower atmosphere will produce a wintery mix across parts of the North Carolina Piedmont. While this will be a fast moving system with little time for significant accumulations, there is a potential for a couple inches of snow from the central Appalachians through the Del-Mar-Va.

Meanwhile, a swath of light snow associated with a fast- moving disturbance in the upper wind flow will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes into New England. With only limited moisture, light accumulations are forecast. Only an inch is expected with maybe up to two inches lee of Lake Erie.

El Nino pattern underway

NOAA scientists have announced the arrival of El Nino, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries.

El Nino, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.

NOAA expects this El Nino to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10.

El Nino Updates

Drought potential in for parts of the Ohio Valley

From mid-January through April 2010, the drought affecting California, Nevada, Arizona, and adjacent areas should continue to improve. Outlooks for late January and the February-April period call for enhanced chances of above-normal precipitation, except along the northern-most tiers of California and Nevada as well as adjacent southern Oregon, where more limited improvement is expected.

Farther north, drought is forecast to persist in central Washington and in areas near the Montana/Idaho border and should expand to cover the area between these two regions. Although odds favor a wet end to January in this region, drier than normal weather should prevail from February through April, consistent with conditions favored during El Niño episodes.

Farther east, some improvement can be expected in the recently-identified drought along and near the Idaho/Wyoming border, and in the protracted hydrologic drought affecting parts of the western Great Lakes region.

Elsewhere, most signs point to continued recovery for the residual drought areas in southern Texas, but existing short-term precipitation shortfalls and expected below-normal February – April precipitation should allow drought to develop in parts of northwestern Ohio by the end of the period.

U.S. Drought Monitor
Seasonal Drought Outlook (Map)

Illinois Has Fourth Wettest Year on Record

Based on preliminary data in Illinois, the statewide average precipitation for 2009 was 50.3 inches, 11 inches above normal. This was the fourth wettest year on record for the state based on data going back to 1895, according to the Illinois State Water Survey.

The wettest year on record was 1993 with 51.2 inches, followed closely by 2008 with 50.5 inches, and 1990 with 50.4 inches. All four wettest years have been in the last 20 years of the record. The normal statewide annual precipitation in Illinois is 39.2 inches.

The statewide precipitation for December was 4.1 inches, 1.4 inches above normal. While much of that precipitation fell as rain, areas north of Interstate 64 reported measureable snow totals. Significant snow was reported north of Interstate 80 with totals of 8 to 21 inches.

The statewide average temperature for December was 28.9 degrees, 1.0 degree below normal. As a result, the annual temperature for 2009 was 51.2 degrees, 0.8 degrees below normal. The outstanding colder-than-normal months in 2009 were January, July, August, and October. January was 4.2 degrees below normal, July was 5.2 degrees below normal, August was 2.6 degrees below normal, and October was 4.4 degrees below normal.

An outstanding feature is the two back-to-back exceptionally wet years. Together they account for 100.8 inches of precipitation. That is an extra 22.4 inches of precipitation over the two-year period.

Next Page »