Cooler, drier air settles into the Corn Belt

On the Plains, lingering showers and thunderstorms are confined to portions of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Meanwhile, warm weather is returning to the northern Plains, following a recent period of highly beneficial rainfall.

Across the Corn Belt, scattered, generally beneficial showers are occurring in the vicinity of a cold front stretching southward from Michigan. The front separates warm, humid air in the eastern-most Corn Belt from slightly cooler, dry weather in the western Corn Belt.

In the South, Tropical Storm Alberto – a very small system – is currently centered about 100 miles east-northeast of St. Augustine, Florida, with minimal impacts on U.S. weather. Elsewhere, a few showers – not directly related to Alberto – are spreading inland across the southern Mid-Atlantic States, while beneficial rain associated with a cold front is falling in parts of the lower Mississippi Valley.

In the West, warm, dry weather prevails, except for a return to cool, showery conditions in the Pacific Northwest.

An active pattern across the upper Midwest, parts of the Plains

An upper trough will continue to move from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest. During its evolution, a series of disturbances aloft will work their way across the Intermountain West and into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. These impulses will help produce an extensive region of precipitation. Enough cold air aloft is available to produce snow at some of the highest elevations.

Ahead of the upper trough along the surface front, low-level moisture will be available to trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Northern and Central Plains and into the Upper Midwest.

Hot and dry conditions will continue across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners Region.

An upper trough along the East Coast will finally begin to slowly shift north and east.

Daytime heating will continue to trigger thunderstorms over the region. Wet weather will continue over southern Florida.

The Weather Map
24-Hour Precipitation Forecast
National Radar
Weather Bulletins

NOAA: Past 12 months were warmest Nation has experienced

Warmer and drier than average temperatures continued for much of the nation in April.

These temperatures, when combined with the first quarter and previous 11 months, calculate to the warmest year-to-date and 12-month periods on record for the contiguous United States.

The Complete NOAA Story

Fire Weather Outlook

For Wednesday, there is an extremely critical fire weather area for a large part of the western half of New Mexico and portions of eastern Arizona.

Other critical areas surround that and extend into portions of southern Utah, southwestern Colorado and far southwestern Texas. There is also another critical fire area to watch in parts of Santa Barbara, CA including the Santa Ynez range.

National Weather Service’s Fire Outlook Page

Severe Weather Outlook

For Wednesday, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the central Plains, upper Midwest and portions of the Carolinas.

Tuesday, there were over 120 reports of high wind and hail, primarily scattered over the Southeast and the Dakotas.

Current Severe Weather Watches

Reports of Severe Weather

Storm Prediction Center

Some drought improvement for the upper Midwest

La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific transitioned to ENSO-neutral during Spring 2012. With ENSO-neutral conditions expected to continue through the June-August period, ENSO-related climate anomalies did not factor significantly into this outlook.

Over the previous several weeks, widespread soaking rains eased drought conditions in southwestern Texas and southeastern New Mexico, and a slow moving storm system brought relief to much of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states.

Widespread rainfall across the upper Midwest also reduced existing drought conditions. In contrast, a combination of abnormal dryness and heat sparked rapid drought development across the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, while near-record heat across the Southeast was interrupted by hit and miss thunderstorm activity.

During the upcoming three month period, drought persistence is expected across the Great Basin and central Rockies due to a dry climatology, while the onset of the monsoon season may bring some relief to portions of the Southwest. Wet short and middle range forecasts and a rainy climatology increase prospects for improvement across the upper Midwest, while persistence is expected across the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley.

In the Southeast, sea-breeze convective activity will likely bring drought relief to Florida and coastal areas, but summer convection – outside of any tropical cyclone activity – is less likely to significantly reduce entrenched and exceptional drought conditions in the Piedmont.

Summer thunderstorms may bring some relief to the drought areas of the Northeast.

Drought Outlook
Palmer Drought Chart
U.S. Drought Monitor

Much-needed rain for the upper Midwest

Daily showers and thunderstorms will linger through week’s end in parts of the East, particularly across the Mid-Atlantic States.

Meanwhile, a series of disturbances will maintain cool conditions and periods of rain from the Pacific Northwest into the upper Midwest. Five-day rainfall totals could reach 2 to 4 inches in the upper Midwest and 1 to 2 inches on the northern Plains. In contrast, mostly dry weather will prevail into early next week across the southern half of the U.S., excluding the Atlantic Coast States.

Late in the week and into the weekend, heat will build across the South, East, and Midwest, with many locations expecting several days of 90-degree heat.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for near- to above-normal temperatures nationwide, except for cooler-than-normal conditions from the Pacific Northwest to the upper Midwest. Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall from the Pacific Coast to the southern Plains will contrast with wetter-than-normal weather from the northern Plains to the Atlantic Coast States.

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

La Nina fading, expected to end soon

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean swing back and forth every few years (sometimes more) like an irregular pendulum. The warm phase is known as El Niño; the cool phase—which it has been in for the past two winters—is called La Niña.

According to NOAA’s April 2012 ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, La Niña is fading and will likely be over by the end of April.

The Complete NOAA Story

Weather Hazards Outlook, May 21 – June 1, 2012

Here is a look at some of the potential or ongoing weather hazards and headlines ahead in the days to come:

River flooding continuing for parts of northern Washington, May 21-22.

Much above normal temperatures for parts of the western U.S., May 21.

Much above normal temperatures for the central and southern High Plains, May 22-23.

High winds, blowing dust, and enhanced wildfire danger for the southwestern U.S., May 22-24.

Periods of heavy rain for south Florida, May 21-27.

Severe drought for parts of the Southeast, central Rockies, southern Plains, Southwest, interior portions of California and the Great Basin.

Weather Hazard Outlook Map

Weather Hazard 3- 7 Day Outlook Map

Weather Hazard 8 – 14 Day Outlook Map

Still mild, dry across the Corn Belt

On the Plains, beneficial rain is ending across Montana and the Dakotas, where cool, breezy weather prevails. Across the southern half of the Plains, warm, dry weather is maintaining concerns about the deteriorating conditions of summer crops and immature winter wheat.

Across the Corn Belt, showers and thunderstorms across the upper Midwest are slowing soybean planting but providing highly beneficial moisture for summer crops. Meanwhile, warm, dry air is expanding across the central and eastern Corn Belt, where pockets of unfavorable dryness exist.

In the South, showers continue to ease or eradicate drought in the southern Mid-Atlantic States. In contrast, worsening drought is adversely affecting pastures and summer crops in the Mid-South, including the northern Mississippi Delta.

In the West, cool weather in California and the Northwest contrasts with lingering heat in the Southwest. Scattered rain and high-elevation snow showers accompany the Northwestern cool spell.

The Weekly Crop & Weather Bulletin