A wet, active pattern ahead for much of the Heartland

Looking ahead, a low-pressure system centered over the southeastern Plains will reach the Northeast by Saturday. Meanwhile, a storm system affecting the Northwest will arrive in the nation’s mid-section during the weekend. The second system has the potential to produce a significant severe weather outbreak from April 26-28, starting on the central and southern Great Plains and eventually reaching the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Five-day rainfall totals could reach 2 to 5 inches in the middle and lower Mississippi Valley and neighboring regions. Amounts could reach 1 to 2 inches across the northern Plains and Intermountain West. Cold weather will trail the second storm across the northern and western U.S.

The 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., except for warmer-than-normal weather in southern Florida. Warm weather will also cover the West. Meanwhile, near- to below-normal precipitation across the majority of the nation will contrast with wetter-than-normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and from the eastern Gulf Coast States northward into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Late-season chill continues in parts of the Nation

Across the Corn Belt, National Weather Service Frost and Freeze warnings were in effect early Thursday in parts of the middle Ohio Valley. Farther north, late-season snow continues to accumulate in portions of the upper Great Lakes region. Throughout the Midwest, cool weather is limiting spring fieldwork.

On the Plains, a little light rain is falling across southeastern Colorado and southern Kansas. Elsewhere, cool, dry weather prevails. Freezes were noted Thursday morning as far south as northern Kansas, while temperatures dipped below 20° in parts of the Dakotas.

In the South, National Weather Service Frost and Freeze Warnings were in effect early Thursday across eastern portions of Tennessee and Kentucky, upstate sections of the Carolinas, much of Virginia, and northeastern Georgia. Cold weather continues to threaten a variety of commodities, including fruits, emerged summer crops, and heading winter grains. However, crop development is generally behind schedule due to cooler-than-normal spring weather.

In the West, unusual spring warmth is starting to spread eastward from California and the Great Basin. Thursday’s high temperatures will top 90° in the Desert Southwest. Cool weather lingers, however, in the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. Showers accompany the cool conditions in the Northwest.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

National Snow Cover Map

A warmer, wetter pattern for much of the Heartland

For the remainder of the week, significant precipitation will be mainly confined to the Southeast and

Northwest. Rainfall could reach 2 to 4 inches in the eastern Gulf Coast region and along the southern Atlantic Coast, while similar amounts can be expected west of the Cascades. During the weekend, a developing storm will produce widespread, generally light precipitation across the Plains and upper Midwest. Precipitation could locally top an inch from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, warmth will expand eastward, resulting in near- to above-normal temperatures nationwide by early next week.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for near- to above-normal temperatures and precipitation across the majority of the nation. Cooler-than-normal conditions will be limited to California and parts of neighboring states, while drier-than-normal weather will be limited to the southern Atlantic region.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

A chilly pattern across the eastern-half of the Nation

For the remainder of Friday, a cold front will deliver a few rain showers from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. During the weekend, a stronger cold front will cross the Plains and Midwest, trailed a markedly colder weather. Early next week, freezes can be expected as far south as Texas’ northern panhandle, while temperatures will fall to near 20° across the northern Corn Belt. As the cold air begins to arrive, precipitation will change to snow before ending on Sunday as far south as the central High Plains. From April 13-15, precipitation will also end as snow in portions of the Great Lakes States. Meanwhile, significant, late-season snow accumulations can be expected in parts of the northern and central Rockies. Storm-total precipitation could reach 1 to 2 inches in the Rockies and 1 to 3 inches or more across the eastern half of the U.S. In contrast, warm, dry weather will continue in California, while mostly dry, albeit cooler, conditions will persist on the southern High Plains.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures across the eastern half of the U.S., except across southern Florida, while warmer-than-normal weather will prevail in the West. Meanwhile, near- to above-normal precipitation across the majority of the nation will contrast with drier-than-normal conditions from the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, and from southern California to the southern High Plains.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Hot weather on the southwestern Plains

Across the Corn Belt, cool weather has returned to the Great Lakes region, but near- to above-normal temperatures cover the remainder of the Midwest. Rain showers are mostly confined to two small areas: parts of Ohio and the upper Mississippi Valley.

On the Plains, dry weather accompanies unusual warmth. For the third day in a row, temperatures will approach, reach, or exceed 90° across portions of the drought-stricken southern High Plains.

In the South, warm, dry weather continues to promote an acceleration of spring planting and other fieldwork, except in areas—such as parts of central and southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama—where lowlands are flooded or soils remain too wet.

In the West, warm, dry weather continues, despite an increase in cloudiness in California and the Southwest. This week’s warmth has begun to melt mountain snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and elsewhere in the West.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

National Snow Cover Map

Severe weather, heavy rainfall in the Southeast

The NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms through Monday for parts of the Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. In addition, heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns across the central Gulf Coast into the mid-South.

Convective Outlooks

Storm Reports & Summary Page

Current Weather Watches & Warnings Map

National & Regional Radars

Much-needed weekend rainfall on the southern Plains

Across the Corn Belt, rain showers are mostly confined to areas from southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley. Widespread cloudiness and near- to below-normal temperatures cover the remainder of the Midwest.

On the Plains, cool conditions prevail, along with widely scattered showers. On the southern High Plains, weekend rainfall provided much-needed moisture for rangeland, pastures, and winter grains, although neither coverage nor intensity was sufficient to provide widespread drought relief. In Amarillo, Texas, the April 6 rainfall of 0.40 inch exceeded the total (0.30 inch) during the preceding 8 weeks, from February 9 – April 5.

In the South, showers and locally severe thunderstorms stretch from the southern Mid-Atlantic States to the central Gulf Coast. Most Southern fieldwork remains nearly at a standstill due to recent or ongoing rainfall, although cool, dry air is settling across the western Gulf Coast region.

In the West, mostly dry weather accompanies a rapid warming trend. Monday’s high temperatures will top 80° throughout California’s Central Valley. Any lingering precipitation is confined to the central Rockies, where a few snow showers are occurring.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

National Snow Cover Map

A brief warming trend ahead for the Heartland

Looking ahead, a storm system currently centered over the Mid-South will drift northeastward, reaching eastern Canada by mid-week. Strong thunderstorms will remain a threat for the remainder of Monday across the lower Southeast. Additional precipitation associated with the storm will locally exceed an inch from the Ohio Valley into the Atlantic Coast States. Amounts may approach 3 inches in the Southeast due to thunderstorm activity. In the storm’s wake, precipitation will be mostly light and confined to the northern U.S. Meanwhile, a sudden warming trend in the West will quickly expand eastward, encompassing most of the nation by week’s end. Mid-week temperatures could briefly reach 80° as far north as the Dakotas. In addition, temperatures will frequently approach 100° in the Desert Southwest and occasionally exceed 90° across portions of the southern High Plains.

The 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures between the Rockies and Appalachians, while warmer-than-normal weather will cover the West and portions of the Atlantic Coast States. Meanwhile, near- to above-normal precipitation east of the Rockies will contrast with drier-than-normal weather in the West.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

No shortage of moisture for the eastern Plains, Corn Belt

Over the next several days, a slow-moving storm currently organizing over the Four Corners region will produce an area of locally heavy snow from central portions of the Rockies and Plains into northern-most portions of the Great Lakes and New England, while pockets of sleet and freezing rain are possible across the northern Corn Belt and interior New England. In the storm’s warm sector, locally heavy rain — and potentially severe weather — will develop from the eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley to the central Atlantic Coast. Out west, the recent influx of Pacific moisture will retreat northward, maintaining additional late-season rain and mountain snow across the Northwest and northern Rockies.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for above-normal temperatures across the west to contrast with near- to below-normal temperatures east of the Rockies. Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across much of the western and central U.S., though areas along the U.S.-Canadian border will remain wet. Likewise, above-normal precipitation is anticipated across the eastern third of the nation.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

An active pattern gets underway in the Heartland

On the Plains, unusually cold weather persists from Nebraska northward. Farther south, showers and thunderstorms are developing across the southeastern Plains, but warm, dry, windy conditions persist on the southern High Plains. The southern Plains’ rangeland and pastures, rated 51% very poor to poor in Texas and 43% in Oklahoma—along with jointing to heading winter grains—are in desperate need of moisture.

Across the Corn Belt, warm weather from the Ozark Plateau into the Ohio Valley contrasts with chilly conditions farther north. However, an increase in shower activity accompanies the southern Corn Belt’s warmth.

In the South, warm, mostly dry weather favors an acceleration of previously delayed planting activities. However, showers are developing across the northwestern fringe of the region. On March 30, corn planting was 30% complete in Mississippi (versus the 5-year average of 47%); 28% complete in Texas (vs. 48%) and 18% complete in Arkansas (vs. 30%).

In the West, unsettled, showery weather prevails from California to the Intermountain region, although precipitation is generally light. In California, recent precipitation has not appreciably boosted snowpack but has aided rain-fed rangeland and crops, eased irrigation requirements, and modestly improved reservoir storage.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

National Snow Cover Map