A chilly pattern across the eastern-half of the Nation

For the remainder of Friday, a cold front will deliver a few rain showers from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. During the weekend, a stronger cold front will cross the Plains and Midwest, trailed a markedly colder weather. Early next week, freezes can be expected as far south as Texas’ northern panhandle, while temperatures will fall to near 20° across the northern Corn Belt. As the cold air begins to arrive, precipitation will change to snow before ending on Sunday as far south as the central High Plains. From April 13-15, precipitation will also end as snow in portions of the Great Lakes States. Meanwhile, significant, late-season snow accumulations can be expected in parts of the northern and central Rockies. Storm-total precipitation could reach 1 to 2 inches in the Rockies and 1 to 3 inches or more across the eastern half of the U.S. In contrast, warm, dry weather will continue in California, while mostly dry, albeit cooler, conditions will persist on the southern High Plains.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures across the eastern half of the U.S., except across southern Florida, while warmer-than-normal weather will prevail in the West. Meanwhile, near- to above-normal precipitation across the majority of the nation will contrast with drier-than-normal conditions from the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, and from southern California to the southern High Plains.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Hot weather on the southwestern Plains

Across the Corn Belt, cool weather has returned to the Great Lakes region, but near- to above-normal temperatures cover the remainder of the Midwest. Rain showers are mostly confined to two small areas: parts of Ohio and the upper Mississippi Valley.

On the Plains, dry weather accompanies unusual warmth. For the third day in a row, temperatures will approach, reach, or exceed 90° across portions of the drought-stricken southern High Plains.

In the South, warm, dry weather continues to promote an acceleration of spring planting and other fieldwork, except in areas—such as parts of central and southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama—where lowlands are flooded or soils remain too wet.

In the West, warm, dry weather continues, despite an increase in cloudiness in California and the Southwest. This week’s warmth has begun to melt mountain snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and elsewhere in the West.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

National Snow Cover Map

Severe weather, heavy rainfall in the Southeast

The NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms through Monday for parts of the Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. In addition, heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns across the central Gulf Coast into the mid-South.

Convective Outlooks

Storm Reports & Summary Page

Current Weather Watches & Warnings Map

National & Regional Radars

Much-needed weekend rainfall on the southern Plains

Across the Corn Belt, rain showers are mostly confined to areas from southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley. Widespread cloudiness and near- to below-normal temperatures cover the remainder of the Midwest.

On the Plains, cool conditions prevail, along with widely scattered showers. On the southern High Plains, weekend rainfall provided much-needed moisture for rangeland, pastures, and winter grains, although neither coverage nor intensity was sufficient to provide widespread drought relief. In Amarillo, Texas, the April 6 rainfall of 0.40 inch exceeded the total (0.30 inch) during the preceding 8 weeks, from February 9 – April 5.

In the South, showers and locally severe thunderstorms stretch from the southern Mid-Atlantic States to the central Gulf Coast. Most Southern fieldwork remains nearly at a standstill due to recent or ongoing rainfall, although cool, dry air is settling across the western Gulf Coast region.

In the West, mostly dry weather accompanies a rapid warming trend. Monday’s high temperatures will top 80° throughout California’s Central Valley. Any lingering precipitation is confined to the central Rockies, where a few snow showers are occurring.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

National Snow Cover Map

A brief warming trend ahead for the Heartland

Looking ahead, a storm system currently centered over the Mid-South will drift northeastward, reaching eastern Canada by mid-week. Strong thunderstorms will remain a threat for the remainder of Monday across the lower Southeast. Additional precipitation associated with the storm will locally exceed an inch from the Ohio Valley into the Atlantic Coast States. Amounts may approach 3 inches in the Southeast due to thunderstorm activity. In the storm’s wake, precipitation will be mostly light and confined to the northern U.S. Meanwhile, a sudden warming trend in the West will quickly expand eastward, encompassing most of the nation by week’s end. Mid-week temperatures could briefly reach 80° as far north as the Dakotas. In addition, temperatures will frequently approach 100° in the Desert Southwest and occasionally exceed 90° across portions of the southern High Plains.

The 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures between the Rockies and Appalachians, while warmer-than-normal weather will cover the West and portions of the Atlantic Coast States. Meanwhile, near- to above-normal precipitation east of the Rockies will contrast with drier-than-normal weather in the West.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

No shortage of moisture for the eastern Plains, Corn Belt

Over the next several days, a slow-moving storm currently organizing over the Four Corners region will produce an area of locally heavy snow from central portions of the Rockies and Plains into northern-most portions of the Great Lakes and New England, while pockets of sleet and freezing rain are possible across the northern Corn Belt and interior New England. In the storm’s warm sector, locally heavy rain — and potentially severe weather — will develop from the eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley to the central Atlantic Coast. Out west, the recent influx of Pacific moisture will retreat northward, maintaining additional late-season rain and mountain snow across the Northwest and northern Rockies.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for above-normal temperatures across the west to contrast with near- to below-normal temperatures east of the Rockies. Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across much of the western and central U.S., though areas along the U.S.-Canadian border will remain wet. Likewise, above-normal precipitation is anticipated across the eastern third of the nation.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

An active pattern gets underway in the Heartland

On the Plains, unusually cold weather persists from Nebraska northward. Farther south, showers and thunderstorms are developing across the southeastern Plains, but warm, dry, windy conditions persist on the southern High Plains. The southern Plains’ rangeland and pastures, rated 51% very poor to poor in Texas and 43% in Oklahoma—along with jointing to heading winter grains—are in desperate need of moisture.

Across the Corn Belt, warm weather from the Ozark Plateau into the Ohio Valley contrasts with chilly conditions farther north. However, an increase in shower activity accompanies the southern Corn Belt’s warmth.

In the South, warm, mostly dry weather favors an acceleration of previously delayed planting activities. However, showers are developing across the northwestern fringe of the region. On March 30, corn planting was 30% complete in Mississippi (versus the 5-year average of 47%); 28% complete in Texas (vs. 48%) and 18% complete in Arkansas (vs. 30%).

In the West, unsettled, showery weather prevails from California to the Intermountain region, although precipitation is generally light. In California, recent precipitation has not appreciably boosted snowpack but has aided rain-fed rangeland and crops, eased irrigation requirements, and modestly improved reservoir storage.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

National Snow Cover Map

 

Severe weather expected on the central, southern Plains

The NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday for parts of the central and southern Plains, mainly across portions of northwest Texas during the mid-afternoon and early evening hours and across portions of eastern Kansas and western Missouri later into the overnight hours.

Convective Outlooks

Storm Reports & Summary Page

Current Weather Watches & Warnings Map

National & Regional Radars

A wide-range of weather issues on the Plains

Across the Corn Belt, snow lingers across parts of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, while a few rain showers are crossing Michigan and Ohio. Midwestern winter wheat appears to be emerging from dormancy in reasonably good shape, with nearly half (47%) of the Illinois crop rated in good to excellent condition on March 30.

On the Plains, snow has ended across the Dakotas but unusually cold conditions persist. In contrast, dry, warm, windy conditions are maintaining stress on the southern High Plains’ rangeland, pastures, and winter grains. On March 30, well over half (59%) of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition in Texas, along with 44% in Oklahoma and 25% in Kansas.

In the South, scattered showers are maintaining adequate to locally surplus soil moisture reserves. Planting delays are occurring across the South for a variety of crops. In Texas, for example, planting by March 30 had reached 28% of the intended corn acreage, 21% for sorghum, 10% for rice, and 6% for cotton. Respective 5-year planting averages by March 30 for those four crops in Texas are 48, 38, 34, and 7%.

In the West, widely scattered rain and snow showers are providing very limited drought relief in California and the Great Basin. Despite recent precipitation, the average water content of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snowpack stands at 8 inches, less than 30% of average for the date.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

National Snow Cover Map

 

An active, moisture-laden part ahead for the Midwest

An active weather pattern across the central and eastern U.S. will lead to 5-day precipitation totals of 1 to 4 inches in the states bordering the Mississippi River, as well as the Ohio Valley. Locally severe thunderstorms will accompany the rain across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and South. Meanwhile, mostly dry, windy weather will continue to plague the southern High Plains, leading to an elevated risk of wildfires and the possibility of blowing dust. Elsewhere, unsettled, showery weather will linger across the West, although precipitation amounts will not be particularly heavy.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures in the western Gulf Coast region and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, while warmer-than-normal weather will prevail from the Pacific Coast to the High Plains. Meanwhile, near- to below-normal precipitation across the majority of the U.S. will contrast with wetter-than-normal conditions in New England and the lower Southeast.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook