Fall 2011 Midwest Precipitation: Shortages West; Surpluses East

In the Midwest during the Fall of 2011, precipitation was plentiful in the eastern Midwest but scarce in western parts of the region (meteorological fall is September through November), according to the Midwestern Regional Climate Center at the Illinois State Water Survey (ISWS).

Fall precipitation in portions of Minnesota and western Iowa was 4 to 6 inches below normal. September through November precipitation totals from around Minnesota were 1.15 inches in Redwood Falls, 1.36 inches in Minneapolis-Saint Paul, 2.39 inches in Saint Cloud, and 3.21 inches in Duluth. In Iowa, Sioux City recorded just 0.59 inches and Sioux Rapids recorded 1.37 inches.

In Minneapolis-Saint Paul, fall precipitation (1.36 inches) was a negative departure of 5.92 inches from the 1981-2010 normal. The autumn of 2011 in the Twin Cities was the driest in the 141-year record, according to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

In Minnesota and northwest Iowa, the minimal fall precipitation intensified the existing abnormally dry conditions. As a result, this region saw the development of moderate to severe agricultural drought conditions on the U.S. Drought Monitor over the past three months.

The dry conditions have created some negative impacts in Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Negative impacts include reduced crop yields, smaller soybeans, difficult tillage operations, and damage to farming equipment.

Fortunately, not all drought impacts in this region have been negative. A dry fall produced an ideal harvest for farmers, assisted in the drying of corn without utilizing grain dryers, and extended the outdoor construction and maintenance work seasons. In addition, the dry conditions this fall will reduce the probability for flooding next spring, which river communities are thankful for after three consecutive years of spring flooding.

In contrast, the eastern Midwest received ample precipitation this fall. Kentucky and parts of Ohio, Indiana, southern Illinois, and southeast Missouri received 15 to 20 inches of precipitation (Figure 2), which is 6 to 10 inches above normal fall precipitation. This abundant rainfall helped eliminate abnormally dry and drought conditions on the U.S. Drought Monitor altogether across this region.

However, the unseasonably high precipitation in the eastern Midwest did not come without some negative consequences. Flooding was an issue on a few occasions in Kentucky, Ohio, and Indiana.

Weather Hazards Outlook, Jan. 30 – Feb. 10, 2012

Here is a look at some of the potential or ongoing weather hazards and headlines ahead in the days to come:

Heavy rain is predicted for western parts of Washington, with snow in the higher elevations, January 30-31.

Moderate flooding is likely in the vicinity of the Guadalupe River near Bloomington in southeastern Texas, January 30-31.

Severe drought for parts of the central and southern Great Plains, Desert Southwest, the central Sierra Nevadas, the Southeast, the western Corn Belt and northeast Minnesota.

Weather Hazard Outlook Map

Weather Hazard 3- 7 Day Outlook Map

Weather Hazard 8 – 14 Day Outlook Map

Fire Weather Outlook

For Monday, no large-scale critical areas areas for wildfires exists across the Nation. 

Fire Weather Outlook and Discussion

Severe Weather Outlook

For Monday, no organized areas of severe thunderstorms are forecast across the Nation.

Current Severe Weather Watches
Reports of Severe Weather
Storm Prediction Center

Drought expansion forecast for the Southwest, Southeast U.S.

The drought outlook for January 19 – April 30, 2012 was based upon climate anomalies associated with La Niña, short to medium range forecasts, climatology, and initial conditions.

Frequent periods of precipitation somewhat improved drought conditions across the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast during the past two months. However, a return of dry weather and the ongoing La Niña favor persistence across most of eastern New Mexico, Texas, southern Kansas, western Oklahoma, and Texas.

Farther east, persistence or development can be expected across much of the lower Southeast, with the highest forecast confidence in Florida. Some improvement is possible along the northern drought boundary in the South with short and medium-term heavy precipitation expected, plus favorable odds of above-normal February-March-April precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Great Lakes region.

The lack of early winter precipitation, unexpected in the Northwest during a La Niña, resulted in moderate drought development and expansion of abnormal dryness across eastern Washington, southern Idaho, most of Oregon, California, and Nevada, and northern Utah. However, short and medium-term forecasts and the 3-month precipitation outlook favor improvement in northern sections (Washington, Oregon, northern California), with some improvement in northeastern California and northwestern Nevada.

Despite the early winter snowfall in Arizona and New Mexico, the odds for drought persistence and development across the Southwest are elevated. Therefore, persistence or development is forecasted across central and southern California, Arizona, southern sections of Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, and western New Mexico.

A relatively dry winter climatology and equal odd chances (1- and 3-month outlooks) elevates the chances for persistence across the western Corn Belt and upper Midwest. An exception was near Lake Superior (Some Improvement) where the 3-month precipitation outlook slightly favored above-normal precipitation.

U.S. Drought Monitor
Seasonal Drought Outlook Map
NOAA’s Seasonal (30 & 90 Day) Outlooks

December in Illnois: Warm with Little Snow

The statewide average temperature for December 2011 in Illinois was 35.7 degrees, 5.9 degrees above average. This ranked as the ninth warmest December on record with statewide records going back to 1895, according to the Illinois State Water Survey, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

The highest temperature for the month was 67 degrees at Cairo on December 5. The lowest temperature was 0 degrees at Monmouth on December 10.

The statewide average precipitation for December in Illinois was 3.43 inches, 0.74 inches above average or 127percent of average. The highest precipitation total for the month was Brookport Dam (along the Ohio River) with 7.70 inches.

Snowfall totals for December were much below average across the state. The highest snowfall total for the month was at Stockton (far northwestern corner of Illinois) with 4.0 inches. Snowfall totals were less than an inch in southeastern Illinois and 1 to 2 inches elsewhere in the state.

By mid-December last winter, much of Illinois had experienced 10 to 25 inches of snow.

Weatherwise across Illinois: 2011 was a Unique Year

The year 2011 was the 10th wettest year and a year of extreme monthly temperatures and precipitation, according to the Illinois State Water Survey.

The statewide average precipitation for 2011 in Illinois was 45.62 inches; 5.43 inches above the 1981-2010 average of 40.20 inches. It was also the wettest April, 8th wettest June, and 6th wettest November on record.

On the other hand, it was the 6th driest August and 21st driest October on record.

The statewide average temperature for 2011 in Illinois was 53.0 degrees; 0.8 degrees above the 1981-2010 average of 52.2 degrees. It was the 23rd warmest year on record. It was also the 4th warmest July, the 7th warmest November, and 8th warmest December on record. Yet it was the 17th coldest January and 10th coldest September since 1895.

Du Quoin came close to reaching the state record for annual precipitation when it reported 72.11 inches. The state record was 74.58 inches, set in New Burnside in 1950.

However, not everywhere was so wet in 2011. A few sites in central and western Illinois reported 30 inches or less of precipitation. These included Lake Springfield with 25.34 inches and Illinois City Dam #16 with 27.47 inches. One of the driest major cities was Springfield with 30.61 inches, reported at the airport.

Unseasonably mild weather to dominate the Nation

Significant precipitation will be confined to the Northwest, while dry weather will prevail into early next week from California to the Plains and into the Southeast.

Generally above-normal temperatures weather will accompany the tranquil weather.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook for calls for warmer-than-normal weather nationwide, except for near-normal temperatures across Florida’s peninsula. Meanwhile, drier-than-normal conditions across the majority of the U.S. will contrast with near- to above-normal precipitation from the Great Lakes region into New England.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: La Niña is back

La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Recently, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.

NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.

U.S. dealt another La Niña winter, and a “wild card”

The Southern Plains should prepare for continued drier and warmer than average weather, while the Pacific Northwest is likely to be colder and wetter than average from December through February, according to the annual Winter Outlook recently released by NOAA.

For the second winter in a row, La Niña will influence weather patterns across the country, but as usual, it’s not the only climate factor at play. The ‘wild card’ is the lesser-known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation that could produce dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter.

NOAA’S Complete 2011-2012 Winter Outlook