Warmth across the Plains, Midwest

On the Plains, scattered thunderstorms across northern areas are causing minor wheat harvest delays. On the southern Plains, pastures and summer crops continue to benefit from abundant soil moisture reserves, despite a recent drying trend.

Across the Corn Belt, warm, mostly dry weather and abundant soil moisture levels are maintaining generally favorable growing conditions for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. Some lowland flooding lingers, however, mainly in the middle Mississippi Valley.

In the South, hot weather is maintaining stress on pastures and rain-fed summer crops in parts of the Atlantic Coast States. In Virginia, for example, USDA rated 37% of the cotton crop in very poor to poor condition on July 25, along with 71% of the pastureland.

In the West, isolated showers are mostly confined to Arizona and Utah. Cool weather prevails along the immediate Pacific Coast, but hot weather elsewhere in the West favors rapid crop development. Wildfires remain a threat in parts of California and the Great Basin.

More heat & moisture for the Heartland

During the next 5 days, a “ring of fire” precipitation pattern will affect the nation, with showers and thunderstorms wrapping around a ridge of high pressure centered over the south-central U.S. The south-central U.S. and the Pacific Coast States will remain mostly dry, but 1- to 3-inch rainfall totals will be common from the Four Corners States northeastward into the upper Midwest, then eastward to the Atlantic Coast.

By week’s end, heat will be mostly suppressed across the South; by early next week, however, hot weather will surge as far north as the southern Corn Belt.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for near- to below-normal temperatures in the West and Northeast, while warmer-than-normal weather will prevail along and east of a line from Minnesota to Texas. Meanwhile, above-normal rainfall from the northern half of the Plains into the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic States will contrast with drier-than-normal conditions in parts of the Northwest and from the southern Rockies to the southern Atlantic Coast.

Second wettest June on record across Illinois

Illinois has experienced the second wettest June on record, based on preliminary data. The statewide average precipitation for June was 7.8 inches, 3.7 inches above normal, according to the Illinois State Water Survey.

The wettest June on record was in 1902 with 8.4 inches of rainfall. Statewide records extend back to 1895.

The largest rainfall totals occurred in the northern two-thirds of the state where amounts of 7 to 13 inches were common. Meanwhile, far southern Illinois remained closer to normal with amounts ranging from 3 to 6 inches.

Some long-term precipitation gauge sites set records for their wettest June. These include Galesburg with 13.24 inches, Havana with 10.58 inches, and Lincoln with 10.79 inches.

The statewide average temperature for June was 74.9 degrees, 3 degrees above normal. Based on preliminary data, this is the tenth warmest June. The warmest June on record was in 1934 with 78.5 degrees.

Of the 10 wettest Junes in Illinois history, in 7 out of 10 cases rainfall returned to within an inch of normal in July and August. Only in 1993 did the wet conditions persist during the next two months. Drier conditions occurred in July and August only in 1945 and 1947.

Illinois State Water Survey

An active hurricane season ahead

An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. As with every hurricane season, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.

The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

National Hurricane Center

Weather Hazards Outlook, July 31 – August 11

Here is a look at some of the potential or ongoing weather hazards and headlines ahead in the days to come:

Excessive heat for the Southeast gradually builds westward into the southern Plains, July 31 – August 4.

Ongoing River flooding for parts of the middle Mississippi Valley, extending back into eastern South Dakota.

Lingering river flooding for portions of the lower Rio Grande, July 31 – August 1.

Severe drought over southern Oregon, northeastern Arizona, portions of the upper Midwest, and parts of the lower Mississippi valley. Some relief is expected across all areas, with the exception of southern Oregon.

Weather Hazard Outlook Map

Drought improvement for the northern Great Lakes region

A recent heat wave coupled with below normal rainfall has resulted in drought development across the mid-Atlantic and southern Appalachians. However, much-needed rainfall has occurred in parts of the eastern U.S. drought areas since July 9. Although improvement is forecast for the eastern U.S. drought areas, small areas of drought could linger.

Hot, dry weather has also led to drought development for the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of northern Texas. Improvement is forecast by the end October, but no relief is expected during the latter half of July.

Since the beginning of June, major drought improvement has occurred across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region. Improvement is likely to continue.

The southwest monsoon that typically peaks during August has started weakly. Most tools on the monthly and seasonal time scales indicate a tilt in the odds for below median rainfall. Therefore, persistence or development is forecast for Arizona and New Mexico. A dry climatology favors drought persistence across western Wyoming, northeast California and Nevada.

U.S. Drought Monitor
Seasonal Drought Outlook (Map)
NOAA’s 30 & 90 Day Temperature & Preciptation Outlook

Severe Weather Outlook

Thursday, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over western North Dakota, a large portion of South Dakota, extreme north central Nebraska and Eastern Montana.

Wednesday, there were 96 reports of severe weather. One tornado was reported near Hinsdale, Montana. Wind and hail reports were primarily from the eastern and southern Great Lakes Region, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Idaho and Montana.

Current Severe Weather Watches
Weather Alerts
River Flooding Outlook

Heat returning to the Heartland

On the Plains, showers and thunderstorms in Montana and the Dakotas are slowing winter wheat harvesting but aiding immature, spring-sown small grains. Meanwhile, hot weather is temporarily returning to the central Plains in advance of a cold front.

Across the Corn Belt, very warm, mostly dry weather and abundant soil moisture reserves are promoting rapid crop development. According to USDA, 84% of the nation’s corn had reached the silking stage by July 25, while 35% of the soybeans were setting pods. Five-year averages for July 25 are 70% for corn silking and 31% for soybeans setting pods.

In the South, showers are providing localized relief from hot, dry conditions. However, more rain is needed—especially from the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic region—to prevent further stress on pastures and immature summer crops.

In the West, scattered showers are providing beneficial moisture from Arizona northward into the Intermountain region. In the West Coast States, warm, dry weather is promoting fieldwork and crop development—although chilly conditions linger along the Pacific Coast.

Hot, stormy pattern to continue

An active weather pattern will continue for the remainder of the week, resulting in widespread, 1- to 3-inch rainfall totals, with locally higher amounts.

Mostly dry conditions will be confined to the southern Plains and the Pacific Coast States.

Heat will briefly surge northward in advance of a cold front, but by week’s end, hot weather will be mostly confined to the South and Northwest.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for above-normal temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., except in the Northeast, while cooler-than-normal weather will be confined to the immediate Pacific Coast and parts of the Southwest. Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall in the Northwest, the south-central U.S., and southern Florida will contrast with wetter-than-normal conditions in a broad area stretching from the Four Corners States into the Midwestern and Mid-Atlantic States.