Pockets of dryness in the Corn Belt

Across the Corn Belt, dry weather and near- to below-normal temperatures remain mostly favorable for corn and soybeans. However, pockets of short-term dryness are becoming a concern in some areas, mainly across the western and southern Corn Belt. On July 27, topsoil moisture was rated 41% very short to short in Nebraska and 39% very short to short in Missouri.

On the Plains, rain has mostly subsided in Oklahoma and northern Texas, following a recent deluge. Parts of central and southeastern Oklahoma, as well as northeastern Texas, received 2 to 6 inches of rain in the last 24-hours, causing some flash flooding. Meanwhile, heat is overspreading the northern High Plains, including Montana, promoting winter wheat harvesting and the maturation of spring-sown small grains.

In the South, scattered showers and thunderstorms are heaviest in the Arklatex region. Developing drought remains a concern in several areas of the Southeast. On July 27, for example, topsoil moisture was rated 51% very short to short in Kentucky, along with 44% in South Carolina, 33% in Virginia, and 32% in Georgia.

In the West, an active monsoon circulation continues to produce locally heavy showers in the southern Rockies and neighboring areas. In addition, isolated showers dot the Great Basin and Intermountain West. However, hot, dry weather continues to plague northern California and much of the Northwest, maintaining heavy irrigation demands and increasing stress on rangeland, pastures, and rain-fed summer crops.

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Forecast High Temperatures (National)

More sub-average temperatures for the Heartland

Locally heavy showers will continue to spread across the South. Five-day rainfall totals could reach 2 to 4 inches in the southern Atlantic States. Meanwhile, locally heavy showers will continue in the Four Corners States, with flash flooding possible. In contrast, hot, mostly dry weather will dominate the Pacific Coast States. Elsewhere, a few showers will dot the northern Plains and the Midwest, but dry weather will cover the remainder of the nation’s mid-section.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures in large sections of the central and eastern U.S., as well as the central Rockies, while hotter-than-normal conditions will cover the lower Southeast, the lower Rio Grande Valley, and the Far West. Meanwhile, near- to above-normal rainfall across the majority of the U.S. will contrast with drier-than-normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest, northern Plains, far upper Midwest, and southern parts of Arizona, Texas, and Florida.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

More cool weather ahead for the Heartland

Locally heavy showers will shift eastward from the central and southern Plains, reaching the southern Atlantic States during the weekend. Meanwhile, somewhat drier weather will prevail in the Southwest, although showers will linger across the central and southern Rockies. Most of the remainder of the West will remain mostly dry, except for scattered showers across the Great Basin and Intermountain region. Mostly dry weather will also continue through week’s end from the northern Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley. Elsewhere, an ongoing heat wave in the Northwest will contrast with near- to below-normal temperatures in most other parts of the country.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures in much of the central and eastern U.S., while hotter-than-normal conditions will cover southern Florida and the Far West. Meanwhile, near- to above-normal rainfall across the majority of the U.S. will contrast with drier-than normal conditions in parts of southern Texas and from the Pacific Northwest into the upper Midwest.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Cool pattern continues across the Corn Belt

Across the Corn Belt, cool weather continues to benefit reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. However, patchy dryness has developed across the Midwest during July, following near-record to record-setting June wetness. Still, at least half of the pastures are rated in good to excellent condition in every Midwestern State, while only Nebraska—at 16%—has more than one-tenth of its pastures rated very poor to poor.

On the Plains, locally heavy showers and thunderstorms are soaking the southern half of the region. The rain is providing additional drought relief but—on the central High Plains—causing some flash flooding. Meanwhile, cool, dry weather prevails on the northern Plains, where patchy dryness has developed in recent weeks.

In the South, dry weather accompanies unusually cool conditions. Pockets of short-term dryness cover western Kentucky and stretch from parts of Alabama, Georgia, and northern Florida into the southern Mid-Atlantic States. On July 27, nearly half (45%) of South Carolina’s pastures were rated very poor to poor.

In the West, record-breaking heat stretches from northern California to the northern Rockies. In addition, more than a dozen large wildfires in the Pacific Coast States are in various stages of containment. Elsewhere, previously heavy showers are gradually subsiding across the Four Corners States and Intermountain West.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

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Forecast High Temperatures (National)

Mostly favorable weather conditions across the Corn Belt

Across the Corn Belt, despite a recent drying trend, conditions remain mostly favorable for corn and soybeans. Specifically, many crops continue to thrive due to below-normal temperatures and adequate soil moisture.

In the South, heat lingers across the lower Southeast in advance of a cold front’s passage. Monday’s maximum temperatures will approach 100° from southern Alabama to the coastal plain of South Carolina. Meanwhile, cooler air is arriving across the interior Southeast, preceded by isolated showers and thunderstorms.

On the Plains, the interaction between a cold front and the monsoon circulation is resulting in heavy showers in an area centered on western Oklahoma and northern Texas. Heat lingers elsewhere in Texas. However, a return to cool weather on northern and central Plains is easing crop stress in the wake of the recent hot spell.

In the West, the National Weather Service has issued Flash Flood Watches for Monday across portions of the Great Basin, Desert Southwest, and Four Corners region due to ongoing heavy shower activity. In contrast, hot, dry weather has returned to the Northwest, where recovery efforts continue from a rash of wildfires.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

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Forecast High Temperatures (National)

An unusually cool pattern across the Heartland

A robust monsoon surge interacting with the tail of a cold front will result in a continuation of locally heavy showers from the Southwest and Intermountain West to the southern Plains. During the next 5 days, additional rainfall could reach 3 to 5 inches or more in the Rockies of Colorado and northeastern Mexico. Meanwhile, rainfall totals should range from 1 to 3 inches on the southern Plains and 1 to 2 inches across the Intermountain West. In contrast, hot, mostly dry weather will cover the Northwest. Farther east, several days of cooler-than-normal weather will dominate the central and eastern U.S. Heavy rain will end later Monday in the Northeast, but scattered showers will linger for several days in the Great Lakes region and across the Deep South.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for above-normal temperatures in the Far West and across the nation’s northern tier, while cooler-than-normal conditions will prevail from the central and southern Rockies to the middle and southern Atlantic States. Meanwhile, near- to above-normal rainfall across the majority of the nation will contrast with drier-than-normal weather in portions of the central U.S., stretching from Louisiana northward into the upper Midwest.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Heat wave continues for now on the central, southern Plains

Across the Corn Belt, a return to hot weather in the middle Missouri Valley contrasts with cool conditions farther east. Showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front are spreading across the western Corn Belt. Conditions overall remain mostly favorable for corn and soybeans, despite some short-term drying.

On the Plains, cool air is arriving along the Canadian border, but hot weather covers the remainder of the region. Friday’s high temperatures will reach or exceed 100° in many locations from Nebraska southward, temporarily increasing stress on summer crops — especially those in the reproductive stage of development.

In the South, very warm, humid conditions linger along and near the Gulf Coast. Beneficial showers are gradually subsiding across the lower Southeast, while dry weather prevails farther north and west.

In the West, shower activity has diminished and is mostly confined to the Four Corners States. Meanwhile, temperatures are rebounding but remain at mostly below-normal levels in the Northwest. Elsewhere, gusty winds in the Great Basin and the Intermountain West remain a concern with respect to wildfire development.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

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An unseasonably cool pattern ahead for the Heartland

A slow-moving cold front will trigger showers and thunderstorms as it tracks across the northern and central Plains into the Corn Belt, reaching the Atlantic Coast States by Monday. Rain will be heaviest in the Great Lakes region, where totals could top 2 inches in potentially severe thunderstorms. Ahead of the front, sweltering heat will briefly expand from the southern Plains into the Southeast, with highs approaching or topping 100° before the front’s arrival. Behind the cold front, sharply cooler weather will settle over most of the nation east of the Rockies by Tuesday. Meanwhile, the tail end of the front will stall across the central Rockies and southern Plains, where locally heavy downpours are possible by early next week.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for much-below-normal temperatures from the central Rockies to the East Coast, while hotter-than-normal conditions prevail west of the Rockies. Drier-than-normal conditions are expected from the northern Pains into the Corn Belt, while above-normal rainfall develops from the Great Basin to the southern Plains and Delta.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

A very cool pattern ahead for most of the Heartland

Cool weather in the Midwest will be reinforced early next week by a strong push of Canadian air. Heat across the High Plains will be relegated to the South, while a brief cool spell in the Northwest will be replaced by a weekend return to hot weather. During the next 5 days, 1- to 2-inch rainfall totals can be expected in parts of the northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast, as well as the Pacific Northwest and Four Corners.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures east of the Rockies, except for hotter-than-normal conditions in the Deep South. Heat will also dominate the West. Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall in southern Texas and from the Pacific Northwest into the upper Midwest will contrast with wetter-than-normal weather across the southern Plains, Four Corners States, and from the lower Great Lakes region to the Atlantic Seaboard.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Cooler weather returning to the Corn Belt

Across the Corn Belt, cool weather has returned in the wake of a cold front’s passage. The front, which is moving into the Ohio Valley, is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Corn Belt. On July 20, topsoil moisture was rated less than 20% very short to short in all Midwestern States except Nebraska (32% very short to short) and Missouri (23%)—and even those two values are below average for this time of year.

On the Plains, clusters of thunderstorms dot the northern half of the region. Meanwhile, hot weather is overspreading the High Plains, where Wednesday’s high temperatures will approach 100° in many locations. Despite substantial rainfall since late May, subsoil moisture (on July 20) remains at least 60% very short to short in New Mexico (66%), Oklahoma (63%), and Texas (60%).

In the South, hot, humid weather in advance of a cold front is promoting a rapid crop development pace. Rain is still needed in parts of the Southeast to alleviate crop stress. On July 20, topsoil moisture was rated at least 40% very short to short in South Carolina (54%), Kentucky (48%), and Virginia (44%).

In the West, cooler air has spread into the Pacific Coast States, but hot conditions prevail farther inland. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect in parts of the Desert Southwest, where Wednesday’s high temperatures will exceed 110°. Showers are aiding wildfire containment efforts in the Northwest, but an enhanced risk of new wildfire activity exists in the Great Basin and then northern Intermountain West.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)