A wet pattern continues across the Heartland

High pressure will slide off the Atlantic Coast, allowing heat and humidity to build east of the Mississippi, accompanied by afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, an upper-air disturbance will produce a more concentrated area of rainfall from the Midwest into the Northeast. Another area of low pressure and its associated cold front will generate showers in northern portions of the Rockies and Plains, and renew the risk for heavy rain in the northern and western Corn Belt by early next week. Farther south, a nearly-stationary disturbance in the western Gulf will trigger locally heavy downpours in southern Texas, but tropical storm development is not expected. Out west, dry, hot weather will replace recent rainfall in the Great Basin and Rockies, while heat and dryness will prevail in drought-afflicted California, Oregon, and central Washington.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for near- to above-normal temperatures across much of the contiguous U.S., except for cooler-than-normal conditions over the northwestern quarter of the nation. Meanwhile, above-normal rainfall over the central and eastern U.S. — except for New England — will contrast with drier-than-normal weather from the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin southeastward into the Four Corners and western Texas.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Heat & storms expanding across the Heartland

Across the Corn Belt, very warm weather is building into southern corn and soybean production areas, where Wednesday’s high temperatures will exceed 90°. Elsewhere, beneficial showers dot the eastern Corn Belt, while favorably warm weather is aiding late-developing summer crops in the upper Midwest.

On the Plains, hot, dry weather is increasing stress on immature summer crops as far north as southern Nebraska. Temperatures could reach 100° later Wednesday in western Kansas and environs. In contrast, scattered showers on the northern Plains are slowing fieldwork, including spring wheat harvesting.

In the South, isolated showers are causing only minor fieldwork delays. On August 17, Texas led the South with 32% of its corn harvested, followed by Georgia (31%), South Carolina (19%), and Louisiana (12%).

In the West, widely scattered, monsoon-related showers stretch primarily from Arizona to the northern Rockies. Mostly dry weather prevails in the Pacific Coast States, although cooler weather is aiding wildfire containment efforts.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

Active pattern ahead from the Plains, eastward

A series of disturbances crossing the northern half of the nation will remain the focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic States, resulting in 5-day rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches or more. Toward week’s end, a strong cold front will produce a final round of heavy rain, followed by unseasonably cool conditions, across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Weekend minimum temperatures near 40° are possible across the northern High Plains. In advance of the late-week cold front, heat will briefly surge northward, resulting in several days of temperatures near 95° as far north as the southern Corn Belt. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather will persist across the south-central U.S., while cooler air will continue to overspread the West.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures from the Rockies to the upper Great Lakes region, while hotter-than-normal conditions will dominate New England, the Far West, and the Deep South. Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall in southern and western Texas and the Pacific Northwest will contrast with wetter-than-normal weather in most areas east of the Rockies.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

An active pattern to evolve across much of the Heartland

For the remainder of this week, unsettled, showery weather will cover the majority of the U.S. Rain will be heaviest from the northern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic States, resulting in 1- to 4-inch totals. Meanwhile, showers will become more widespread in the Four Corners States, where rainfall could reach 1 to 3 inches in a few spots. In contrast, little or no rain will fall in the south-central U.S. or the Far West. Elsewhere, hot weather will encompass much of the central and eastern U.S. during the next several days, while cool conditions will overspread the West. During the mid- to late-week period, temperatures should approach or reach 95° in the southern Corn Belt.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures from the Intermountain West into the upper Midwest, while, warmer-than-normal weather will cover much of the remainder of the country. The greatest likelihood of hot weather will be across the South. Meanwhile, near- to above-normal rainfall in most of the country will contrast with drier-than-normal conditions in the northeastern and south-central U.S.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Late-summer heat on the Great Plains

Across the Corn Belt, scattered showers are most numerous in northern production areas, from North Dakota to Wisconsin. The rain is helping to ease the effects of short-term dryness that has developed in recent weeks. Nevertheless, overall conditions remain mostly favorable for Midwestern pastures and summer crops, in part due to this summer’s absence of stressful heat.

On the Plains, hot weather is maintaining stress on immature summer crops. Monday’s high temperatures will exceed 100° as far north as Kansas. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are helping to offset the effects of the heat in a few areas, mainly across the central and southern Plains.

In the South, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms stretches from central Texas to the southern Mid- Atlantic States. The rain is slowing fieldwork but benefiting pastures and immature summer crops. Across the Deep South, hot, dry weather is promoting fieldwork, including the early stages of the corn harvest.

In the West, mostly dry weather prevails during a lull in the monsoon. However, a few showers linger across the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, the return of hot weather across much of the West is boosting irrigation demands but favors fieldwork and summer crop maturation.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

Near seasonal pattern across the Heartland

Heavy rain will linger Wednesday in the Northeast and into Thursday in northern New England, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain possible. Showers will linger for much of the week across Florida, where totals could reach 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts. Farther west, mostly dry weather will persist across the southern Plains, but late-week showers will overspread the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest. Hot weather will continue on the High Plains and return—during the weekend—to the Northwest. Elsewhere, locally heavy showers in the West will yield to somewhat drier conditions, although 5-day totals could reach 1 to 2 inches or more from the Four Corners States northward to the northern Rockies.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for near- to above-normal temperatures nationwide, except for cooler-than-normal conditions across parts of the Intermountain West. Meanwhile, near- to below-normal rainfall from the Pacific Coast to the Plains will contrast with wetter-than-normal weather from the Mississippi River to the Atlantic Seaboard.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Cool, dry weather lingers in the Midwest

Across the Corn Belt, dry weather accompanies near- to below-normal temperatures. Conditions remain favorable for Midwestern pastures and summer crops, except in areas that have trended dry since early July and did not receive appreciable rainfall during a series of cold frontal passages from August 5-12.

On the Plains, building heat accompanies dry weather. Wednesday’s high temperatures could approach 100° as far north as Montana. The hot, dry weather favors fieldwork, including winter and spring wheat harvesting on the northern Plains, but is increasing stress on rain-fed summer crops such as cotton.

In the South, cooler, drier air is arriving in the wake of a cold front’s passage. Corn harvesting is underway in the Deep South and by August 10 corn was 17% harvested in Texas; 6% harvested in Louisiana; and 2% harvested in Mississippi and Alabama. Warm, humid, showery conditions linger across much of Florida.

In the West, scattered showers are heaviest in western Washington and parts of Arizona. However, there is still an elevated risk of wildfire ignition and expansion across portions of the interior Northwest due to lightning strikes and gusty winds. Heat lingers in the northern Rockies, but cooler air is spreading inland across the Pacific Coast States.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

Heavy rainfall for parts of the Southwest

The combination of a slow-moving front and monsoon moisture will bring thunderstorms to parts of the Southwest, some with heavy rain that could lead to isolated flash flooding. Areas at risk include southern Arizona, New Mexico and western Texas.

Weather Alerts

Patchy Midwestern Dryness of Minimal Concern

Across the Corn Belt, scattered showers accompany a continuation of near- to below-normal temperatures. Patchy Midwestern dryness developed during July, but overall crop stress has been minimal due to a lack of heat and the ability of corn and soybeans to tap into soil moisture reserves that accumulated during a very wet June.

On the Plains, mostly dry weather prevails. However, cool conditions across the southern half of the region contrast with some of the warmest weather of the summer on the northern High Plains. The northern Plains’ warmth is promoting winter wheat harvesting and the growth of late-developing summer crops.

In the South, widespread showers stretch from the central Gulf Coast to the southern Atlantic States. Southeastern showers are slowing fieldwork but aiding pastures and summer crops, which have experienced varying degrees of stress in June and July due to pockets of dryness and a few episodes of hot weather.

In the West, heavy showers continue to provide drought relief but cause local flash flooding in the southern Rockies and environs. Elsewhere, isolated showers dot the Pacific Northwest, while unfavorably hot, dry weather persists from California into the central Great Basin and northern Rockies.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

A wetter pattern ahead for parts of the Plains, Corn Belt

Looking ahead, a pair of slow-moving disturbances — one currently located over Louisiana and the other over southeastern Georgia — will generate showers and thunderstorms from the Delta to the central and southern Atlantic Coast States, with potentially heavy downpours possible from eastern South Carolina into the lower Delmarva. Meanwhile, a humid air mass over the Midwest will lead to scattered, mostly light showers, with more organized rain activity developing next week as a frontal system approaches. Monsoon showers are expected to persist from the central Rockies into the Four Corners region. Farther north, hot, mostly dry weather will prevail from the Northwest to the northern Plains, where daytime highs will average up to 10° above normal.

The 6- to 10-day outlook calls for cooler- and wetter-than-normal weather across most areas from the central Rockies to the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Above-normal temperatures will be confined to the Pacific Coast States as well as the Rio Grande Valley and Southeast, while drier-than-normal conditions are confined to southern-most portions of the U.S., the Pacific Northwest, and Upper Midwest.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook