Fairly quiet week for export sales

USDA reports corn, soybean meal, soybean oil, and wheat export sales for the week ending May 10 were within pre-report estimates, while soybeans were below expectations. Physical shipments of soybeans were above what’s needed to meet USDA projections for the 2011/12 marketing year but corn and wheat fell short of their respective marks.

Wheat came out at 321,800 tons (11.8 million bushels), up 45% from the week ending May 3 and 5% higher than the four week average. South Korea was the top buyer at 87,700 tons followed by Nigeria with 70,000 tons. With less than a month left in the 2011/12 marketing year, wheat sales are 1.022 billion bushels, compared to 1.301 billion in 2010/11. Sales of 389,600 tons (14.3 million bushels) for 2012/13 delivery were mainly to South Korea (129,900 tons).

Corn was reported at 339,400 tons (13.4 million bushels), 51% more than the previous week but 46% less than the four week average. Japan bought 259,500 tons but Egypt canceled on 111,300 tons. So far this marketing year, corn sales are 1.491 billion bushels, compared to 1.665 billion this time last year. Sales of 525,700 tons (20.7 million bushels) for 2012/13 delivery were primarily to unknown destinations (316,200 tons).

Soybeans were pegged at 616,300 tons (22.6 million bushels), 32% lower than the week before and down 7% from the four week average. Unknown destinations purchased 159,500 tons and China picked up 119,100 tons. At this point in the marketing year, soybean sales are 1.290 billion bushels, compared to 1.518 billion a year ago. Sales of 57,100 tons (2.1 million bushels) were mostly to Japan (38,100 tons).

Soybean meal came out at 114,300 tons, a decrease of 17% from the prior week and 36% under the four week average. Turkey bought 34,500 tons and Venezuela purchased 22,000 tons. For the marketing year to date, soybean meal sales are 6,599,200 tons, compared to 6,850,800 last year. Sales of 81,300 tons for 2012/13 delivery were mainly to Poland (27,000 tons), unknown destinations (25,000 tons), and Mexico (24,000 tons).

Soybean oil was reported at 8,100 tons, with sales to Nicaragua (8,700 tons) and Guatemala (800 tons) partially offset by cancellations from Canada (900 tons) and Morocco (600 tons). 2011/12 soybean oil sales are 411,000 tons, compared to 1,177,100 tons in 2010/11. Sales of 40,000 tons for 2012/13 delivery were to unknown destinations.

Net beef sales totaled 14,400 tons, down 31% on the week and 22% lower than the four week average. The listed buyers were Mexico (2,600 tons), Japan (2,400 tons), Russia (2,200 tons), South Korea (2,000 tons), and Canada (1,700 tons).

CME Group adjusts plan for expanded hours

The CME Group says the Chicago Board of Trade will now offer grain and oilseed futures and options trading 21 hours a day, pending certification by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

According to a statement by the CME Group, customer feedback led to an adjustment from the earlier plan for a 22-hour trading day, saying trade between 5 PM to 2 PM Central from Sunday through Friday best meets customer’s risk management needs. The CBOT parent company says the new plan came through collaboration with the National Grain and Feed Association and the North American Export Grain Association.

The Kansas City Board of Trade is also set to offer a 21-hour trading day as both exchanges compete with the recent introduction of expanded grain futures trade by the Intercontinental Exchange. The KCBT plan would go into effect May 31, pending CFTC approval. The CME Group has not given a start day for its’ expanded trading day.

The National Corn Growers Association is requesting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission require a 30-day public comment period before major grain exchanges expand their trading hours. In a letter to CFTC Chair Gary Gensler released late Wednesday, NCGA President Gary Niemeyer says a 22-day hour trading day for the CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange would place the nation’s corn growers at a marketing disadvantage, especially when many are busy planting.

Niemeyer added futures trade during the release of major USDA reports distorts prices and dramatically increases risk, and a 22-hour trading day would make it impossible for growers and small elevators to actively track markets.

Another strong session for wheat, corn

Soybeans were mixed on commercial buying in the nearbys and speculative selling in the deferreds. There was no fresh supportive news and planting weather looks good over the near term, with increasing talk of double crop acreage. However, the fundamentals remain bullish, especially on the demand side of the balance sheet. Soybean meal was up on the good demand outlook and firm cash basis while oil was down on product spread adjustments and spillover from crude oil. China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center estimates 2011/12 soybean imports at 58 million tons and 2012/13 purchases at 60 million tons, while projecting domestic production at 13 million tons with a 7% decrease in acreage. USDA’s weekly export sales report is out Thursday at 7:30 AM Central. Soybeans are placed at 1.1 million to 1.6 million tons, meal is seen at 75,000 to 225,000 tons, and oil is pegged at 30,000 to 60,000 tons.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying, along with spillover from wheat. Corn continues to see good export demand with China buying 900,000 tons of mixed U.S. old and new crop corn (180,000 tons for 2011/12, 720,000 tons for 2012/13, with all old crop and 480,000 switched from unknown destinations), and there’s talk of more sales in the coming days. Still, planting is going well in most areas and near term weather looks good, which limited gains in the deferreds. Ethanol futures were higher. According to Dow Jones Newswires, China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center projects 2012 domestic corn production at 197.5 million tons, with a 3% increase in acreage. South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee bought 60,000 tons of optional origin feed corn. Ukraine’s state statistics agency reports corn stocks as of May 1 were 5.6 million tons, 2.2 million on farm, with the total grain supply at 13.7 million tons. Weekly U.S. corn sales are estimated at 800,000 to 1.4 million tons.

The wheat complex was higher with Chicago and Kansas City up sharply on short covering and speculative buying. The trade’s watching world weather problems including dry conditions in the Southern U.S. Plains, Australia, and Russia. Dow Jones Newswires reports Iraq bought 400,000 tons of wheat from the U.S., Russia, Australia, Romania, and Kazakhstan, and Japan’s tendering for U.S. milling wheat. Japan also has a new sell-buy-sell tender for 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley. European wheat was up on spillover from Chicago and short covering. China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center expects domestic wheat production to be around 120.3 million tons, up 2% from 2011 with a 2% rise in planted area. According to Ukraine’s state statistics wing, wheat stocks at the start of the month were 6.1 million tons, with 2.6 million tons on farm. Weekly U.S. wheat sales are projected at 400,000 to 850,000 tons.

Big spread between cattle bids and asking prices

For the most part the cash cattle market remained quiet on Wednesday afternoon. Packer inquiry is light to moderate suggesting that short-bought packers need to buy cattle. On the other hand, bids of 118.00 live and 188.00 to 190.00 dressed remain well below the asking prices of 122.00 to 123.00 and 195.00 to 197.00. Unless packers can move closer to the asking prices soon significant trade volume will probably be delayed again this week.  The cattle slaughter totaled 124,000 head, 1,000 below last week, and down 2,000 from last year.

Boxed beef cutout values were weak to lower on moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings. Choice boxed beef was down .63 at 190.98, and select was 1.98 lower at 185.10.

Live cattle contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange settled higher on Wednesday. Trading was mostly light throughout much of the session, but cattle held onto their gains through the close despite lower boxed beef values in the noon report. Traders continue to watch the cash cattle trade for signs of more packer interest, but so far there has been a widespread between asking prices and bids. June settled .45 higher at 116.87, and August was up .22 at 118.95.

Feeder cattle ended the session Higher in an extremely light trade with the boost in the live cattle futures helping to draw the nearby contracts higher. Higher corn values worked to limit the gains. Deferred futures posted significant gains as traders look for tighter supplies through the third quarter of the year.  May settled .42 higher at 149.85, and August was up .65 at 158.32.

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Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 16, 2012

Jul. corn closed at $6.20, up 22 and 3/4 cents
Jul. soybeans closed at $14.22, up 9 cents
Jul. soybean meal closed at $425.00, up $7.80
Jul. soybean oil closed at 50.43, down 104 points
Jul. wheat closed at $6.38 and 3/4, up 30 and 1/4 cents
Jun. live cattle closed at $116.87, up 45 cents
Jun. lean hogs closed at $86.50, up 10 cents
Jun. crude oil closed at $92.81, down $1.17
Jul. cotton closed at 76.97, down 219 points
Jun. Class III milk closed at $15.25, up 38 cents
Jun. gold closed at $1,536.60, down $20.50
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,598.55, down 33.45 points

Wednesday midday cash livestock prices

Asking prices and bids are widely separated on the cash cattle. Private sources report a few bids in the South at 118.00 and asking prices are 122.00 to 123.00. In Nebraska a few bids have been reported at 188.00 dressed. Feedlot operators are asking 195.00 plus. Unless packers suddenly turn up the heat, significant trade volume could be delayed until Thursday or Friday.

Boxed beef cutout values are lower in the noon report, choice beef is down .58 at 191.02, and select is 1.26 lower at 185.82.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Ozarks Regional Stockyards at West Plains, MO totaled 4,000 head on Tuesday. Compared to last week steers weighing less than 500 lbs. were 2.00 to 4.00 higher, 5 to 7 weights mostly steady and over 700 lbs. steady to 2.00 higher. Heifers were uneven with the front end quality 500 to 725 lbs. 2.00 to 4.00 higher, other weights and grades steady to 3.00 lower. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 500 to 600 lbs. 171.00 to 192.00. 5 to 6 weight feeder heifers 154.00 to 171.00.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade opened 1.78 higher at 83.14 on a carcass basis, the West was up 1.29 at 82.60 and the East is .41 higher at 76.15. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady to 1.00 higher from 72.00 to 77.00. Terminal hogs were mostly 1.00 to 2.00 higher from 52.00 to 54.50.

Hog buyers raised bids as much as $3 yesterday without generating more than light to moderate country movement. Evidence is building that seasonal numbers are at long last declining.

Solid bounce for grains and oilseeds

Soybeans were higher on technical and commercial buying. Fundamentals remain bullish, especially for old crop, and beans were due for a bounce after the recent losses. Cash soybean bids were firm thanks to slow farmer selling as many concentrate on planting. Soybean meal and oil were up with meal outgaining oil thanks to comparatively better demand.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying. The near term fundamental outlook is solid and the longer term outlook is moving towards neutral on expectations for continued strong demand. Ahead of the open, South Korea picked up 56,000 tons of U.S. corn for delivery next marketing year. Ethanol futures were higher.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying. Kansas City is watching the hot, dry conditions in the Southern Plains and Chicago’s concerned it could spread into the soft red winter growing areas. Additionally, the trade’s keeping an eye on dry weather in key portions of Russia’s wheat belt along with weather issues in Australia, China, and Europe. European wheat was up sharply, tracking Chicago. The United Kingdom’s Customs Service reports March wheat exports were 124,916 tons, up 14% from March 2011. South Korea bought 55,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat and Japan’s tendering for 158,783 tons of milling wheat (37,391 tons U.S. western white, 35,605 tons U.S. hard red winter, 33,029 tons U.S. dark northern spring, 32,170 tons Australian standard white, and 20,588 tons Canadian western red spring).

Hog futures close with sharp gains

Cattle country was quiet on Tuesday with bids and asking prices poorly defined. DTN says it seems safe to say that early week bullish expectations have firmed thanks to stronger futures and improving cutouts. Some showlists are priced around 122.00 to 123.00 live and 195.00 to 197.00 dressed. The cattle kill was estimated at 126,000 head, the same as last week, but 3,000 less than 2011.

Boxed beef cutout values were firm to higher on moderate demand and light to moderate offerings. Choice beef was up .58 at 191.61, and select was 1.38 higher at 187.08.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled 27 to 100 points higher. Moderate support developed in the cattle complex as momentum in the lean hog futures created spillover buying that positively affected the cattle market. With no developments in the cash cattle market and boxed beef values relatively stable for the moment traders focused on the support in outside markets, especially in the grains. June settled .27 higher at 116.42 and August was also up .27 at 118.72.

Feeder cattle ended the session unchanged to 65 higher after bouncing higher and lower much of the session. The sharp rally in the corn market did not create significant liquidation in the feeder cattle market, although the grain market support helped to drive additional buyer interest into live cattle, which created stability in feeder cattle values. May settled unchanged at 149.42, and August feeders were .47 higher at 157.67.

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Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 15, 2012

Jul. corn closed at $5.97 and 1/4, up 14 and 1/4 cents
Jul. soybeans closed at $14.13, up 26 cents
Jul. soybean meal closed at $417.20, up $13.70
Jul. soybean oil closed at 51.47, up 17 points
Jul. wheat closed at $6.08 and 1/2, up 10 and 1/4 cents
Jun. live cattle closed at $116.42, up 27 cents
Jun. lean hogs closed at $86.40, up $1.02
Jun. crude oil closed at $93.98, down 80 cents
Jul. cotton closed at 79.16, up 34 points
Jun. Class III milk closed at $14.87, up 17 cents
Jun. gold closed at $1,557.10, down $3.90
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,632.00, down 63.35 points

Tuesday midday cash livestock prices

It is a typical Tuesday in cattle country without even a token bid on the table. Bullish expectations in the cash cattle trade received an early shot in the arm yesterday thanks to impressive strength in both futures and boxed beef. Early asking prices are firm at 122.00 to 123.00 in the South and 195.00 plus in the North.

Boxed beef cutout values were mixed in the morning report, with the choice .02 lower at 191.01, and select was up .83 at `86.53.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Joplin Regional Stockyards on Monday totaled 4435 head. Compared to last week, yearling feeder cattle sold steady with some firmness noted on the load lot heifers. Steer and heifer calves trended mostly steady to 2.00 lower. Demand was mostly moderate with some increased interest on the reputation calves and larger consignments of yearlings. Supply was moderate and quality as a whole was on the plainer side with buyers wishing for more cattle that would satisfy Northern orders. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 550 to 600 lbs. traded from 166.00 to 182.00, 6 t0 7 weights from 154.00 to 167.50. 5 00 to 600 lb. heifers brought 147.50 to 164.50, 6 to 7 weights from 144.00 to 149.00.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade opened 2.93 higher at 81.29 on a carcass basis, the West is up 2.86 also at 81.29, and the East is .83 higher at 75.42. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady to 2.00 higher from 72.00 to 76.00. Terminal hogs opened steady to 1.00 higher from 50.00 to 53.00 live.

Pork trading is at a near standstill with fresh retail and processing cuts not established,

Yesterday’s  higher dressed carcasses sales and limited market hog receipts suggests that pork processors have started the week fairly short bought according to DTN.