Hog futures close with sharp gains

Cattle country was quiet on Tuesday with bids and asking prices poorly defined. DTN says it seems safe to say that early week bullish expectations have firmed thanks to stronger futures and improving cutouts. Some showlists are priced around 122.00 to 123.00 live and 195.00 to 197.00 dressed. The cattle kill was estimated at 126,000 head, the same as last week, but 3,000 less than 2011.

Boxed beef cutout values were firm to higher on moderate demand and light to moderate offerings. Choice beef was up .58 at 191.61, and select was 1.38 higher at 187.08.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled 27 to 100 points higher. Moderate support developed in the cattle complex as momentum in the lean hog futures created spillover buying that positively affected the cattle market. With no developments in the cash cattle market and boxed beef values relatively stable for the moment traders focused on the support in outside markets, especially in the grains. June settled .27 higher at 116.42 and August was also up .27 at 118.72.

Feeder cattle ended the session unchanged to 65 higher after bouncing higher and lower much of the session. The sharp rally in the corn market did not create significant liquidation in the feeder cattle market, although the grain market support helped to drive additional buyer interest into live cattle, which created stability in feeder cattle values. May settled unchanged at 149.42, and August feeders were .47 higher at 157.67.

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Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 15, 2012

Jul. corn closed at $5.97 and 1/4, up 14 and 1/4 cents
Jul. soybeans closed at $14.13, up 26 cents
Jul. soybean meal closed at $417.20, up $13.70
Jul. soybean oil closed at 51.47, up 17 points
Jul. wheat closed at $6.08 and 1/2, up 10 and 1/4 cents
Jun. live cattle closed at $116.42, up 27 cents
Jun. lean hogs closed at $86.40, up $1.02
Jun. crude oil closed at $93.98, down 80 cents
Jul. cotton closed at 79.16, up 34 points
Jun. Class III milk closed at $14.87, up 17 cents
Jun. gold closed at $1,557.10, down $3.90
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,632.00, down 63.35 points

Another big down day for soybeans

Soybeans were sharply lower on fund liquidation and spillover from the outside markets. The dollar was higher with the Dow, gold, and crude oil sharply lower on continued concerns over Europe’s economic health. According to the Ag Department, 46% of soybeans are planted as of Sunday, compared to 17% a year ago and 24% for the five year average, with 16% of the crop emerged, compared to 3% a year ago and 5% on average. China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center projects May soybean imports at 5.63 million tons, a little less than initial expectations, but still up from April. Soybean meal and oil were lower, following soybeans. Celeres, via Dow Jones Newswires, reports Brazil’s 2011/12 soybean harvest is essentially wrapped up as of last week. The National Oilseed Processors Association’s monthly update shows April’s member crush at 131.708 million bushels, compared to 140.534 million in March and 121.330 million during April 2011.

Corn was mixed, with July 2012 through May 2013 steady to firm ahead of the weekly crop progress numbers. Commercial demand remains solid and the trade’s talking about more interest from China. Dow Jones Newswires reports that interior cash basis levels have weakened over the past few days as farmer selling increases. USDA reports 87% of the U.S. crop has been planted, compared to 56% a year ago and 66% on average, and 56% has emerged, compared to 16% a year ago and 28% on average. Ethanol futures were mostly lower.

The wheat complex was mixed on the uneven corn, higher dollar, and technical buying. The fundamentals are bearish and there was no fresh news but after the recent losses, contracts are oversold. For the winter wheat crop, USDA states 72% has headed, compared to 50% a year ago and 46% on average and 60% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, down 3% on the week, while for spring wheat, 94% is planted, compared to 33% a year ago and 64% on average with 68% emerged, compared to 10% a year ago and 32% on average. European wheat was lower on outside market pressure and improved rainfall in Ukraine. Ethiopia is tendering for 35,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat.

Pork and beef values are sharply higher

Feedlot country was typically quiet on Monday following the distribution of the new showlists. The new offering appears to be somewhat smaller than last week. Preliminary asking prices are around 122.00 plus in the North, and 195.00 plus in the South. Significant trade volume may be delayed until the second half of the week. The kill totaled 127,000 head, 8,000 more than last week, but 3,000 smaller than a year ago.

Boxed beef cutout values ended sharply higher on fairly good demand and moderate offerings. Choice beef was up 1.93 at 191.03, and select was 2.65 higher at 185.70.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled 25 to 100 points higher on Monday. There was moderate to strong support seen in the nearby contracts based on cash market support last week as well as early week positioning. Higher boxed beef prices lent additional support to the complex. There was some pressure in the deferred months with traders still concerned about long term beef demand while overall fed cattle supplies continue to build. June settled 1.00 higher at 116.15, and August was up .75 at 118.45.

Feeder cattle finished the session 32 points higher to 17 lower. The front months were pressured by the stability in the nearby corn futures. May settled .27 lower at 149.25, and August was also down .27 at 167.20.

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Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 14, 2012

Jul. corn closed at $5.83, up 2 cents
Jul. soybeans closed at $13.87, down 19 cents
Jul. soybean meal closed at $403.50, down $5.00
Jul. soybean oil closed at 51.30, down 94 points
Jul. wheat closed at $5.98 and 1/4, down 1 and 1/4 cents
Jun. live cattle closed at $116.15, up $1.00
Jun. lean hogs closed at $85.37, up 7 cents
Jun. crude oil closed at $94.78, down $1.35
Jul. cotton closed at 78.82, down 15 points
Jun. Class III milk closed at $14.70, down 19 cents
Jun. gold closed at $1,561.00, down $23.00
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,695.35, down 125.25 points

Lower end to the week for grains and oilseeds

Soybeans were sharply lower on fund and technical liquidation. That said – the near term fundamentals remain bullish with unknown destinations buying 139,500 tons of old crop U.S. beans ahead of the open. Still, with liquidation in full force and bearish trade in the outside markets, beans sold off hard. Soybean meal and oil were down sharply, following the lead of soybeans.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling, along with spillover from beans and the outsides. Thursday’s USDA numbers were a continued bearish factor with the Ag Department expecting a record U.S. crop. Commercial demand did limit losses. Ahead of the open, unknown bought 60,000 tons of old crop U.S. corn along with 240,000 tons of new crop. Ethanol futures were lower.

The wheat complex was mostly lower on technical and commercial selling, along with spillover from corn, beans, and the outsides. The overall fundamentals remain bearish, especially on the global supply side of the balance sheet. In any event, there was no fresh supportive news. May Minneapolis was the only contract to finish in positive territory.

Cattle trade was very slow on Friday

USDA Mandatory reported cattle trading was moderate in Nebraska on moderate demand on Friday. Compared to last week, dressed sales were steady to 2.00 lower at 192.00 to 194.00, with early live sales at 121.50 to 122.00 There were a few live sales in Colorado at 122.00, and dressed sales in Iowa have traded at 193.00 to 194.00. As of late afternoon the South was quiet. The weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 639,000 head, 16,000 more than last week, but 11,000 short of last year.

Boxed beef cutout values were lower on light demand and light to moderate offerings. Choice boxed beef was down .82 at 189.10, and select was .81 lower at 183.05.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled 70 to 102 points lower. The market was pressured by beef demand concerns and long liquidation. The sharp losses in the boxed beef values over the last two days have created concern through the nearby and deferred futures contracts. The lack of activity in the cash market also weighed on futures. June settled .70 lower at 115.15, and August was down .90 at 117.70.

Feeder cattle settled 65 to 142 points in the red even though trade volume in the pit was nearly nonexistent. Deferred contracts were hit the hardest with contracts in the fourth quarter of the year posting losses of $1.00 a hundredweight or greater.  May settled .65 lower at 149.70, and August was down 1.42 at 157.47.

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Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 11, 2012

May corn closed at $6.08, down 17 and 1/2 cents
May soybeans closed at $14.04, down 48 and 1/4 cents
May soybean meal closed at $411.00, down $12.90
May soybean oil closed at 51.90, down 125 points
May wheat closed at $5.92 and 3/4, down 2 cents
Jun. live cattle closed at $115.15, down 70 cents
May lean hogs closed at $79.52, down 27 cents
Jun. crude oil closed at $96.13, down 95 cents
Jul. cotton closed at 78.97, down 285 points
May Class III milk closed at $15.26, up 2 cents
May gold closed at $1,583.60, down $11.50
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,820.60, down 34.44 points

Corn down, beans up on USDA numbers

Soybeans were higher on commercial and fund buying. Ahead of the open, USDA made a bigger than expected cut to old crop ending stocks and the new crop was smaller than expected. USDA sees new crop exports at 1.51 billion bushels, up around 200 million on the year, and China’s expected to buy more than 60 million tons. Soybean meal and oil were higher, following the lead of beans. Brazil’s CONAB projects 2011/12 soybeans at 66.7 million tons, up on the month but down 11.5% on the year. China’s General Administration of Customs reports April soybean imports were 4.88 million tons, up 1% from March and 26% larger than April 2011, with year to date purchases at 18.15 million tons, 22.3% above this time last year. China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center expects May soybean imports to be 5.7 million tons.

Corn was lower on fund and commercial selling. USDA actually increased old crop ending stocks, reducing the feed use guess, and new crop was above estimates. That new crop guess is largely tied to the good planting progress and expectations for a yield of 166 bushels per acre and an all-time high for production. Ethanol futures were lower. According to CONAB, 2011/12 Brazilian corn production should be a record 65.9 million tons with the summer crop at 35.7 million and winter crop at 30.2 million tons. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports corn exports as of May 8 are 11.34 million tons.

The wheat complex was mixed in consolidation trade. USDA raised the winter wheat production estimate to 1.69 billion bushels, up 13% on the year with hard red winter up 32% and soft red down 6%. Still, the Ag Department lowered old crop ending stocks and new crop stocks were smaller than expected. Japan bought 151,416 tons of milling wheat (63,936 tons Canadian western red spring, 36,780 tons Australian standard white, 25,630 tons U.S. dark northern spring, 14,760 tons U.S. hard red winter, and 10,130 tons U.S. western white) and Taiwan bought 48,700 tons of U.S. milling wheat (30,100 tons dark northern spring and 18,600 tons hard red winter). Jordan issued a tender for 100,000 tons of wheat. According to Ukraine’s Ag Ministry, wheat sales are 4.48 million tons, up 39.2% on the year, with 2.59 million tons milling quality and 1.89 million tons feed wheat.

Pork carcass value closes sharply higher

The feedlot cattle trade was quiet on Thursday afternoon with packers both short bought and cautious relative to beef demand. There were a few bids at 118.00 live in Nebraska, and 190.00 to 193.00 dressed in Kansas and Nebraska. It looks like significant trade is delayed until Friday. Asking prices are around 122.00 plus live and 195.00 plus dressed. Cattle slaughter was estimated at 127,000 head, 1,000 more than last week, but 2,000 less than a year ago.

Boxed beef cutout values were lower on moderate demand and heavy offerings. Choice beef was down 1.59 at 189.92, and select was 2.09 lower at 183.86.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled 27 to 85 points lower. An early mixed trade turned lower following the pressure in the boxed beef cutout values at midday. Most buyers stayed on the sidelines with most of the focus on the pressure in the corn market. The lack of cash trade and the likelihood that any major activity will be pushed off until Friday helped to create some stability in the market according to DTN. June cattle settled .75 lower at 115.85, and August was .32 lower at 118.60.

Feeder cattle ended the session mostly higher with only the May contract in the red. The combination of lower corn prices and weaker live futures had the overall direction of the market up in the air and a major question for both the commercial and investment trader. Trade was sluggish for much of the session. May settled .30 lower at 150.35, and August was unchanged at 158.90.

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