Outsides, weather hit soybeans, wheat

Soybeans were sharply lower on commercial and speculative selling, along with spillover from the outside markets. The dollar was higher with the Dow, gold, and crude oil sharply lower, continuing to respond to global economic concerns. Past that – there’s talk of China cancelling soybean purchases and the trade’s watching weather. Soybean meal was mostly lower and bean oil was down, following beans.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying. Corn’s keeping an eye on weather but given the faster than normal development, yields in some areas may already be below the early projections. In any event, near term commercial demand is neutral, edging towards bullish. Ethanol was modestly higher.

The wheat complex was lower on commercial and technical selling, along with spillover from the outside markets, especially the dollar. Wheat’s also keeping an eye on weather with some rain expected in dry parts of the Black Sea region and eastern Australia. However, while the pattern for the Northern Plains is favorable, the Southern Plains should remain hot and dry over the near term. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports 99% of the spring grain crop is planted as of Monday. According to Dow Jones Newswires, South Korea may buy 550,000 tons of feed wheat for October-December arrival but note price is a bigger factor now than in previous months, with feed grade wheat back at a premium to corn.

Cash cattle prices $2.00 lower than last week

USDA Mandatory reported cattle trading was light to moderate in the Texas Panhandle and Kansas on light to moderate demand. Live sales were 2.00 lower than last week at 121.00. At mid-afternoon a light to moderate cattle business developed in the North, with most dressed sales $2.00 lower than last week at 193.00. Most of the dressed sales had been limited to regional buyers. A few cattle sold in Iowa at 122.00. The slaughter totaled 124,000 head, the same as last week, and 1,000 less than last year.

Boxed beef cutout values were higher on moderate demand and light to moderate offerings. Choice boxed beef was up 1.09 at 195.37, and select was .61 higher at 187.65.

Live cattle futures settled 60 to 177 points lower on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday. There was some recovery near the end of the session as nearby contracts had been posting losses of $2.00 per hundredweight or greater on concerns of sharply lower outside market pressure, while higher corn prices are adding to production costs. Fundamentals had little to say in the direction of the market with noncommercial or investment activity taking control of the market direction according to Rick Kment at DTN. June settled 1.55 lower at 117.80, and August was down 1.77 at 119.50.

Feeder cattle ended the session10 to 170 points lower in an extremely light trade. The tone of the market turned weak following the triple digit losses in the live pit as well as the strong rally in the corn. May settled .10 lower at 152.42, and August was down 1.65 at 158.47.

[Read more...]

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 23, 2012

Jul. corn closed at $6.03 and 1/2, up 6 and 1/2 cents
Jul. soybeans closed at $13.62 and 1/2, down 19 and 3/4 cents
Jul. soybean meal closed at $405.80, up 80 cents
Jul. soybean oil closed at 48.91, down 155 points
Jul. wheat closed at $6.65 and 1/2, down 20 cents
Jun. live cattle closed at $117.80, down $1.55
Jun. lean hogs closed at $84.42, down $1.40
Jun. crude oil closed at $89.90, down $1.95
Jul. cotton closed at 71.51, down 301 points
Jun. Class III milk closed at $15.58, up 17 cents
Jun. gold closed at $1,548.40, down $28.20
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,496.15, down 6.66 points

Improved weather forecasts pressure grains, oilseeds

Soybeans were lower on commercial and speculative selling, along with the higher dollar and lower crude oil. There was no fresh supportive news and the weekly crop progress numbers were bearish. Both planting and development are ahead of average and there’s at least some rain in the forecast for parts of the Cornbelt in the coming days. Soybean meal and oil were lower, following beans. Celeres, via Dow Jones Newswires, expects Brazilian farmers to increase soybean acreage slightly, projecting the 2012/13 crop at 79.2 million tons, while Agroconsult sees a larger planted area increase, with the crop at 80 million tons, as both expect improved weather. Harvest is near completion on the 2011/12 crop with the total expected to be around 65 million tons.

Corn was lower on speculative and commercial selling, in addition to the outside market direction. A lot like beans, corn was looking at a lack of fresh news and faster than normal planting and development. Also a lot like beans, corn’s continuing to keep an eye on weather conditions around the U.S. Midwest. Ethanol futures were lower.

The wheat complex was lower on commercial and speculative selling, along with the higher dollar. Very similar to corn and soybeans, wheat had no real fresh news and the crop numbers are ahead of average. That said – also keep an eye on wheat weather, both here and abroad, especially the Black Sea region and eastern Australia. There’s some rain in the forecast for all of those areas but there’s also uncertainty about totals and overall coverage. European wheat was down on those chances for rainfall and the lower U.S. trade. Via Dow Jones Newswires, FC Stone Europe pegs Ukraine’s crop at 12 million tons and their low end estimate for Russia is 52 million tons. Australia’s Bureau of Statistics reports wheat stocks at the end of April were 18.92 million tons, down 11% on the month but up 9.3% on the year. 69% of the total is food grade. Japan issued a tender for 152,846 tons of milling wheat (57,255 tons U.S. dark northern spring, 48,786 tons Canadian western red spring, 28,458 tons U.S. hard red winter, and 18,347 tons U.S. western white).

Cattle futures close higher on short covering and losses in corn

Feedlot country remains relatively quiet on Tuesday with just a few bids noted in Kansas at 122.00. DTN reports that significant trade will probably not develop until Wednesday or later. Packers remain cautious and beef salesmen are hoping they can keep cutouts moving higher. Feedlot operators remain bullish and are asking 125.00 to 126.00 live and 197.00 to 198.00 dressed. The Tuesday cattle slaughter at 126,000 head is even with last week, but 4,000 greater than last year.

Boxed beef cutout values were weak on choice and firm on select on moderate demand and offerings. Choice boxed beef was down .31 at 184.28, and select was up .57 at 187.04.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled 30 to 55 points higher as renewed support entered the market based on short covering activity and sharp pressure in the corn futures market. Traders in the cattle complex stepped back into the market when front month corn was down 16 cents at midday and continued to fall. June cattle settled .55 higher at 119.35, and August was up .47 at 121.27.

Feeder cattle finished the session 75 to 110 points higher on the losses in corn and the firmness in live cattle futures. Although trade remained light the price firmness should help set the tone for the rest of the week. May settled .65 higher at 152.52, and August was up 1.02 at 160.12.

[Read more...]

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 22, 2012

Jul. corn closed at $5.97, down 36 cents
Jul. soybeans closed at $13.82 and 1/4, down 30 and 1/4 cents
Jul. soybean meal closed at $405.00, down $11.50
Jul. soybean oil closed at 50.46, down 46 points
Jul. wheat closed at $6.85 and 1/2, down 18 and 1/2 cents
Jun. live cattle closed at $119.35, up 55 cents
Jun. lean hogs closed at $85.82, down 87 cents
Jun. crude oil closed at $91.66, down 91 cents
Jul. cotton closed at 74.52, down 300 points
Jun. Class III milk closed at $15.41, down 3 cents
Jun. gold closed at $1,576.30, down $12.10
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,502.81, down 1.67 points

Mostly higher finish for grains and oilseeds

Soybeans were higher on speculative and commercial buying. The nearby supply and demand outlook remains bullish and the trade’s watching the weather with dry, warm conditions across some key U.S. growing areas. USDA reports that as of Sunday, 76% of the U.S. soybean crop is planted, compared to 35% a year ago and 42% for the five year average, 35% emerged, compared to 10% a year ago and 13% on average. Soybean meal was mostly firm and bean oil was up, following the lead of soybeans. According to China’s Customs Agency, soybean imports for April were 4,883,972 tons, up 26% from April 2011, with Brazil supplying 2,598,617 tons, a 148% rise, and the U.S. selling 2,278,636 tons, down 19%. For the year to date, Chinese soybean imports are 18,148,611 tons, 22% above January to April 2011, with the U.S. the leading source at 12,323,237 tons.

Corn was mostly higher on commercial and speculative buying, along with spillover from beans and wheat. In the first full date of expanded electronic trade, new crop led the way up on weather concerns but the weekly export inspections were bearish and July hit overhead resistance. Rabobank, via Dow Jones Newswires, sees yield at 157 bushels per acre, up from their last guess but below USDA’s most recent projection of 166 bushels per acre. According to the Ag Department, 96% of this year’s corn crop is planted, compared to 75% a year ago and 81% on average, with 76% emerged, compared to 38% a year ago and 48% on average. In the first condition rating of the year, 77% of corn is rated good to excellent. Ethanol futures were mixed.

The wheat complex hit new eight month highs on speculative buying and short covering. The trade’s watching weather conditions across the U.S. Plains along with the Black Sea Region and eastern Australia. Also, the weekly export inspections were bullish and for the second time in less than a week, Iraq bought 100,000 tons of new crop U.S. hard red winter. USDA states 79% of winter wheat has headed, compared to 59% both last year and on average, while 3% is harvested, compared to 1% a year ago, with 58% of winter wheat rated good to excellent, down 2% from last week. For spring wheat, 99% is planted, compared to 50% a year ago and 78% on average, with 86% emerged, compared to 21% a year ago and 50% on average, and in its’ first condition rating of 2012, 74% of spring wheat is in good to excellent condition. European wheat was higher on weather worries and spillover from Chicago.

Livestock futures close lower on demand concerns and profit taking

The main item of business in cattle country on Monday was the distribution of this week’s showlists. Although selling prices are not well defined early ideas are around 125.00 to 126.00 in the South and 197.00 to 198.00 in the North. The new offering appears to be generally larger than last week especially in Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado. The kill totaled 126,000 head, 1,000 less than last week, and 5,000 smaller than 2011.

Boxed beef cutout values are higher on choice and steady on select on moderate demand and light to moderate offerings. Choice boxed beef was up 2.08 at 194.59, and select was down .09 at 186.47.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled 60 to 112 points lower despite the strong gains seen at the opening bell. Profit taking and cash market uncertainties pressured Monday’s trade ending a five-day rally. Traders are becoming concerned that beef buying may slow after the Memorial Day weekend. June settled .72 lower at 118.80, and August was 1.12 lower at 120.80.

Feeder cattle settled mostly lower with only the May contract higher. Although all indications pointed toward a bullish reaction to the reduced cattle placed in feedlots in April, the lack of additional buyers stepping into the market limited buyer trade. May settled .57 higher at 151.87, but August was down 1.60 at 159.10.

[Read more...]

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 21, 2012

Jul. corn closed at $6.33, down 2 and 1/2 cents
Jul. soybeans closed at $14.12 and 1/2, up 7 and 1/2 cents
Jul. soybean meal closed at $416.50, down $1.40
Jul. soybean oil closed at 50.92, up 60 points
Jul. wheat closed at $7.04, up 8 and 3/4 cents
Jun. live cattle closed at $118.82, down 72 cents
Jun. lean hogs closed at $86.70, down 72 cents
Jun. crude oil closed at $92.57, up $1.09
Jul. cotton closed at 77.52, down 47 points
Jun. Class III milk closed at $15.44, up 5 cents
Jun. gold closed at $1,500.70, down $3.20
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,504.48, up 135.10 points

Weather worries support wheat

Soybeans were sharply lower on fund liquidation, profit taking, and old crop/new crop spread adjustments. There was no real fresh news, China’s planning to sell another 600,000 tons of beans on their domestic market, and the outside markets were mostly bearish with the Dow and crude oil sharply lower. In any event, traders are watching the planting pace and waiting for new export demand. Soybean meal and oil were lower, following beans.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying, in addition to spillover from wheat. There wasn’t much fresh news but the Gulf basis was up sharply due slow farmer selling, the tight nearby supply, and solid demand outlook. With early planting this year, expect an early harvest and increasing cash movement in the coming months. Ethanol futures were higher. The U.S. Grains Council, via Dow Jones Newswires, states Southeast Asian imports of dried distillers’ grains with solubles from January to March were down 11% on the year at 264,105 tons on increased corn availability, higher prices, and lower levels of fat with higher protein content.

The wheat complex was sharply higher on speculative and commercial buying, along with the lower dollar and short covering. The trade’s watching dry conditions in the Southern U.S. Plains, the Black Sea region, and eastern Australia. Also, there are increasing concerns about stressful conditions around the Midwest. European wheat hit new 11-month highs on weather worries. According to Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry, 98% of spring grain planting is complete with overall acreage expected to be pretty much unchanged from 2011.