“And the Expo has grown so much from its humble beginnings to really become, on an annual basis one of the top 10 largest events in Central Ohio, “ said Elizabeth Harsh, Executive Director of the Ohio Cattlemen’s Association. “A huge event that has over 30,000 people in attendance, with participants from over 25 states and Canada, a great event with a lot of different pieces and parts and over 1,300 head of cattle there that weekend.”

The Ohio Beef Expo will feature a trade show all three days, breed consignment sales and a number of youth activities.

Audio: Elizabeth Harsh, Executive Director, Ohio Cattlemen’s Assn. (2:35 MP3)

Choice boxed beef is up .99 at 185.65, and select is up 1.11 at 180.16.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Joplin, Missouri Regional Stockyards on Monday totaled 4976 head. Compared to last week, steer calves were steady; heifer calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 3.00 to 6.00 lower, following last week’s sharply higher trade. Yearlings trended steady with the exception of seven weight steers steady to 1.00 higher. Demand was moderate to good on a moderate supply. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 718 pounds averaged 155.39 per hundredweight. Heifers with an average of 670 pounds traded at 145.71.

Iowa/Minnesota direct trade barrows and gilts are 1.94 lower at 83.47 on a carcass basis, the West is down 1.76 at 83.63, and the East is .68 lower at 80.50. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady 80.00 to 81.00. Terminal hog markets are steady to an instance of 1.00 lower from 57.50 to 60.00.

The pork carcass value has started the week on the defensive, calculating moderate lower on Monday thanks to softening demand for ribs and hams.

CattleFax analyst Kevin Good says, as that transition takes place, the industry will have to address excess feeding and packing capacity.

“Just doing some rough math here—look at the reduction that we would forecast within the next two years,” Good says. “It would suggest we will have 1.4 million less non-fed slaughter cows—and 0.8 million less fed.  The combination is 2.2 million.  That’s roughly about 8,500 head on a daily basis.

“We’ve got that much over-capacity within two years, compared to today, if we are right in assuming that we’re going to start to expand the cow herd—and we think that’s the right assumption as we look at it today.”

Good says a one million head reduction in fed cattle supplies in the next two years equates to removing one packing plant and more than 600 feedlots with a one-thousand head capacity—or 67 feedlots with a 10-thousand head capacity—or 27 feedlots with a 25-thousand head capacity.

“We would like to see the whole thing just completely be removed because it’s going to prohibit our ability to train the next generation to come back home and take over the family farm.”

While there were indications that the parental exemption would be removed from the proposed rule – Chinn tells Brownfield they’ve seen nothing in writing from the Labor Department and that’s what’s making the ag industry nervous.

“Even if they take the parental exemption out it still leaves the question, can grandkids still go work on grandma and grandpa’s farm – or, can kids go work on their aunt and uncle’s farm,” says Chinn, “And that was some questions we brought up during the hearing last week but we never did get an answer on those questions.”

Chinn says the proposed rule runs the risk of keeping her kids from working on a relative’s farm, “Our son collects eggs from grandma’s hens and she pays him for that. He helps her clean up the hen house,” Chinn says, “Our daughter helps grandma breed sows up in the hog barn. She also does some power washing of alley ways and stuff for grandma, as well, for payment. So, these are all things under the new proposed regulations our children would no longer be allowed to do.”

Chinn says the rule would also prevent the use of hand or foot-powered machinery by children under 16 to include garden hoses, flash lights and similar things used on the farm. She says children need safety on the farm but they also need hands-on experience in order to learn.

AUDIO: Chris Chinn (4:00 mp3)

The proposed rule requires all cattle operations meeting the regulatory definition of a CAFO to report a long list of information about their operations to EPA, including the exact location of the production area.

NCBA deputy environmental counsel Ashley Lyon says the rule is not only a serious overreach of EPA’s authority under the Clean Water Act, it could also put the nation’s food system at risk.

“This information will be uploaded to EPA’s web site on an easily-searchable database—and that is accessible across the globe,” Lyon says.

Which raises numerous concerns, Lyon says. “One of which is harassment by environmentalist extremist groups here in the states—as well as terrorist  attacks from foreign and domestic entities.”

A representative of EPA who attended NCBA’s annual meeting in Nashville last week—Ellen Gilinksy—told the group that the agency understands the industry’s biosecurity and privacy concerns, and is open to ideas on how to improve the proposal. 

Lyon said she was encouraged by the comments made by Gilinsky.  But she says the way the reporting rule was developed by EPA—through a consent decree or settlement agreement with environmental groups—is also a big concern.

“We call those sweetheart agreements that require the agency then to promulgate rules that they may not even have the authority to do under the law,” she says.

“That’s obviously extremely concerning and we only see the agency engaging in more of those agreements and promulgating more rules—where the industry is not at the table—and that are going to be economically devastating to the cattle industry and agriculture as a whole.”

According to the EPA, the final CAFO reporting rule will be released in mid-July.

AUDIO: Ashley Lyon (3:21 MP3)

Boxed beef cutout values were higher on moderate demand and light to moderate offerings. Choice beef was up 1.54 at 184.66, and select was up .99 at 179.07.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled 37 higher to 15 lower. The front months held early gains following light to moderate boxed beef market support in the noon report. The trade remained generally sluggish with the far deferred contracts in the red while the nearby’s showed moderate gains. February settled .12 higher at 123.75, and April was up .10 at 127.50.

Feeder cattle settled 10 to 50 points lower despite the ability for the live cattle contracts to hold slight gains through much of the session. Traders remain concerned about the longer term trend in the in the cash cattle markets as well as a lack of renewed support as the outlook of lower overall cattle numbers and potentially tighter feeder supplies fade into the background.  March settled .32 lower at 154.12, and April was down .47 at 156.55.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Oklahoma National Stockyards on Monday totaled 6200 head. Compared to last week feeder steers and heifers at midsession were steady. Steer calves traded 4.00 to 8.00 higher; heifer calves were steady to 2.00 higher. Demand was moderate to good. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 500 to 550 pounds traded from 184.00 to 196.50. 550 to 600 pound heifers brought 150.50 to 163.50.

Lean hogs settled 37 higher to 40 lower with only the summer month contracts in the black. The tone of the market firmed through much of the complex with the front month February contract lagging behind the remainder of the market. Liquidation developed in the front months with little direction coming from the cash or wholesale markets. February settled .40 lower at 87.12, and April was down .37 at 88.55.

There was slow market activity in the hogs with light demand on Monday. Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed .62 lower and the West was down .50 with both at 85.43, weighted average on a carcass basis. The Eastern markets were 1.15 lower at 91.18. Missouri direct base carcass meat price closed steady from 80.00 to 81.00. Terminal barrows and gilts were steady to 1.00 higher from 57.50 to 61.00.

Pork trading was slow with mostly light demand and light to moderate offerings. Pork carcass cutout value was down .35 at 84.75.

Monday’s hog kill was estimated at 419,000 head, 19,000 more than last week, and 5,000 greater than a year ago. Cash hog markets have yet to show a clear seasonal surge in demand. Some production areas in the Midwest have had problems with getting hogs to market due to the heavy snow over the weekend. The cash market is expected to be weak to lower through midweek.

Boxed beef cutout values are higher in the morning report. Choice beef is up .90 at 184.02, and select is .46 higher at 178.54.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Oklahoma National Stockyards on Monday are estimated at 6200 head. Feeder steers and heifers opened steady. Steer and heifer calves are steady to 2.00 higher. The early demand was described as moderate. Feeder steers, medium and large 1 weighing 500 to 525 pounds brought 184.00 to 189.50. 500 to 550 pound heifers traded from 151.00 to 171.50.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota and Western direct trades are not reported due to confidentiality. Nationally barrows and gilts on a carcass basis are 2.39 lower at 81.88, and the East is down 1.41 at 80.92. The Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady from 80.00 to 81.00. Terminal hogs are lightly tested and are .50 to 1.00 higher from 57.50 to 61.00.

While pork carcass value appreciated more than $1.50 last week, it remained inadequate to pull packers out of red ink. The Iowa base price last week averaged 101.5% of the pork cutout. A carcass hog price at 92% of cutout is the five-year average.

Dave Felumlee, immediate past president of the OCA says additional dollars are needed to bring funding levels back to where they were when the checkoff began in 1986.

“This will give us a chance by adding $1.00 to the state checkoff, to be used in the State of Ohio, from Ohio producers, to advertise, to promote our business, to build consumer confidence and consumer demand here in Ohio,” said Felumlee.

Felumlee tells Brownfield the process will begin with OCA working with the Ohio Department of Agriculture (ODA) on the wording of a petition, which will then need 1,000 signatures in order to go to a referendum. The Licking County cattlemen says they’re looking at probably a late summer, early fall timeframe.

Boxed beef cutout values are lower in the morning report, with choice down .07 at 183.12, and select is down .39 at 178.14.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Ogallala Livestock Auction, Ogallala, Nebraska totaled 7400 head on Thursday. There was no sale last week so a comparison on prices was not made. The demand was good on all weights. 487 feeder steers weighing 667 pounds average 165.05 per hundredweight. 491 heifers weighing an average of 624 pounds brought 160.07.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade are 1.43 lower at 86.23 weighted averages on a carcass basis, the West is down 1.99 at 85.14, and in the East the market is 2.97 lower at 80.81. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady from 80.00 to 82.00. Hogs at the terminals are fully steady from 57.00 to 60.00 live basis.

The seasonal price index for lean hogs points higher at this time of year and cash hogs are performing well so expectations are that the market will trade steady at worst and likely post additional gains moving forward.

That prediction comes from CattleFax market analyst Kevin Good. 

At the annual CattleFax Outlook Seminar in Nashville, Good said he expects fed cattle prices to average 122 dollars per hundredweight this year—but he says good risk management will be more important than ever.

“If you think about that from an annual average and say, ‘well, what’s the spread, what’s the risk that we have in the markets’—you’ve got risk at some point back to around 110—and you’ve got potential to the mid-130’s,” said Good. “That’s a 300 dollar per head change from high to low—300 dollars per head.

“You think we don’t have more exposure today than we’ve ever had in the past?”

Good says cow-calf producers are in the driver’s seat right now.  He predicts the average price of  750 pound steers to average around 150 dollars per hundredweight in 2012.

AUDIO: Kevin Good’s presentation at the 2012 CattleFax Outlook Seminar (21:43 MP3)