Corn, soybeans mixed ahead of holiday weekend

Soybeans were mixed on old crop/new crop spread trade with markets and USDA closed Monday for Memorial Day. Old crop supplies remain extremely tight but the cash basis has been moving lower recently, pressuring July, and there’s increasing talk of the U.S. importing soybeans from South America. Brazil’s ports are seeing improved loading and shipping times, and it looks like potential labor issues in Argentina have been put to rest for now. Past that – the trade’s keeping an eye on soil moisture levels and planting conditions as we get closer to June. Soybean meal was mixed on old crop/new crop spreads and bean oil was lower on fund selling.

Corn was mixed on old crop/new crop spread adjustments. Planting conditions look good across most of the Cornbelt and it’ll be very interesting to see how much progress is made when the numbers come out on Tuesday. In any event, the trade’s expecting a big crop but the supply remains tight and demand looks good, especially from the domestic side of the ledger. Ethanol futures were lower. Taiwan’s Maize Industry Procurement Association bought 60,000 tons of corn from Brazil.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. There’s more rain in the forecast for parts of the Southern Plains, but the region is in need of a lot more precipitation than what is in the outlook. China purchased 180,000 tons of new crop U.S. soft red winter and South Korea bought 114,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat. Also, Tunisia picked up 75,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat and Israel purchased 30,000 tons of fed wheat. European wheat was lower on spillover from Chicago.

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 24, 2013

Jul. corn closed at $6.57 and 1/4, down 4 and 3/4 cents
Jul. soybeans closed at $14.76 and 1/4, down 23 and 1/4 cents
Jul. soybean meal closed at $428.20, down $8.80
Jul. soybean oil closed at 49.24, down 42 points
Jul. wheat closed at $6.97 and 1/2, down 5 and 3/4 cents
Jun. live cattle closed at $120.57, up $1.45
Jun. lean hogs closed at $94.87, up 67 cents
Jul. crude oil closed at $94.15, down 10 cents
Jul. cotton closed at 81.49, down 29 points
Jun. Class III milk closed at $17.91, down 43 cents
Jun. gold closed at $1,386.60, down $5.20
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 15,303.10, up 8.60 points

Mostly firm finish in corn and soybeans

Soybeans were mostly firm on commercial and technical buying. The nearby supply remains tight and the weekly export numbers were bullish, coming at more than a million tons, with China buying another 115,000 tons of new crop Thursday morning. However, the cash basis has been down over the past few days due to increased farmer selling and planting conditions look good thanks to improved moisture levels. Soybean meal was mostly firm on commercial demand and bean oil was slightly higher on the overall tone of the soybean complex.

Corn was up modestly on commercial and technical buying. Even with more rain in the forecast for some areas of the Cornbelt, the prospects for this year’s crop have improved greatly in the last few days. In any event, near term supplies remain tight and the cash basis remains at historically high levels for this time of year. Ethanol futures were mostly firm, the exceptions being nearby June and July. Strategie Grains projects 2013/14 corn production for current European Union members at 64.5 million tons, down 100,000 from their most recent projection. Croatia joins the European Union in July.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying. There’s some rain in the forecast for parts of the hard red winter region, but a lot more is needed across most of the area. Spring wheat planting and emergence remain slower than normal with more rain expected in North Dakota this weekend. European wheat was modestly higher on world weather concerns but gains were limited by higher trade in the euro. Strategie Grains estimates 2013/14 soft wheat production for the 27 current European Union nations at 129.8 million tons, down 200,000 from the last guess on smaller acreage in Germany and France; with Croatia, the estimate is 130.9 million tons. Algeria purchased 400,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat after tendering for 50,000 tons. Japan picked up 122,222 tons of milling wheat (31,955 tons Australian standard white, 25,261 tons U.S. western white, 22,396 tons U.S. dark northern spring, 22,370 tons Canadian western red spring, and 20,240 tons U.S. hard red winter), while in sell-buy-sell activity, Tokyo bought 24,700 tons of feed wheat and tendered for another 120,000 tons.

April poultry production 7% above last year

According to USDA, April 2013 poultry production was 3.752 billion pounds, up 7% from April 2012.

The preliminary live weight of all poultry was 4.970 billion pounds, a 7% year to year increase, with young chickens making up the bulk of the total at 4.250 billion pounds, followed by turkeys at 632.131 million pounds. The chicken kill was 733.943 million head, 5% more than last year, with the turkey slaughter up 4% at 20.477 million head.

Young chickens averaged 5.90 pounds per bird, mature chickens averaged 5.19 pounds, and turkeys averaged 30.9 pounds, all above year ago levels.

Ante-mortem condemnations were 10.524 million pounds or 0.21% of the inspected live weight and post-mortem condemnations were 38.288 million pounds or 1.01% of the total quantity expected.

So far this year, U.S. poultry production is 14.509 billion pounds, 2% more than the January through April 2012 total.

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 23, 2013

Jul. corn closed at $6.62, up 3 and 1/2 cents
Jul. soybeans closed at $14.99 and 1/2, up 5 and 1/4 cents
Jul. soybean meal closed at $437.00, down $3.60
Jul. soybean oil closed at 49.66, up 2 points
Jul. wheat closed at $7.03 and 1/4, up 14 and 3/4 cents
Jun. live cattle closed at $119.12, down 87 cents
Jun. lean hogs closed at $94.20, down 35 cents
Jul. crude oil closed at $94.25, down 3 cents
Jul. cotton closed at 81.78, down 164 points
Jun. Class III milk closed at $18.34, up 24 cents
Jun. gold closed at $1,391.80, up $24.40
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 15,294.50, down 12.67 points

Red meat production up 6% on year

USDA reports commercial red meat production during April 2013 was 4.091 billion pounds, up 6% from April 2012, with year to year increases in all major categories except veal.

Beef production came out at 2.127 billion pounds, 7% more than last year, with the slaughter rising 6% to 2.730 million head and average live weight gaining 14 pounds to 1,295 pounds.

Veal was pegged at 9.1 million pounds, down 8% on the year, with a 4% increase in slaughter to 58,600 head canceled out by a 29 pound drop in the average live weight to 266 pounds.

April pork production was 1.942 billion pounds, up 5% from a year ago, with the kill 6% larger at 9.362 million head and average live weight one pound smaller at 277 pounds.

Lamb and mutton production came out at 13.4 million pounds, 4% higher than April 2012, with slaughter increasing 6% to 191,700 head and average live weight decreasing by two pounds to 140 pounds.

April 2013 had 22 weekdays, one more than April 2012. For the year to date, commercial red meat production is 16.107 billion pounds, a little bit more than the January through April 2012 total.

Good week for new crop soybean, wheat sales

USDA reports soybean, soybean meal, and wheat export sales for the week ending May 16 were larger than expected, with corn and soybean oil within pre-report estimates. Physical shipments of corn, soybeans, and wheat were all less than what’s needed weekly to meet USDA projections for the 2012/13 marketing year.

Wheat came out at 239,400 tons (8.8 million bushels), up 91% from the week ending May 9 and 55% higher than the four week average. Nigeria bought 105,400 tons and Brazil picked up 72,000 tons, while unknown destinations canceled on 98,600 tons. Nearing the end of the 2012/13 marketing year, wheat sales are 995.5 million bushels, compared to 1.025 billion late in 2011/12. Sales of 713,600 tons (26.2 million bushels) for 2013/14 delivery were mostly to unknown destinations (162,900 tons) and the Dominican Republic (68,100 tons).

Corn was reported at 104,600 tons (4.1 million bushels), down 52% from the previous week and 57% lower than the four week average. Mexico purchased 40,300 tons and unknown destinations bought 32,000 tons. For the 2012/13 marketing year to date, corn sales are 676.7 million bushels, compared to 1.497 billion in 2011/12. Sales of 341,600 tons (13.4 million bushels) for 2013/14 delivery were primarily to unknown destinations (205,400 tons).

Soybeans were pegged at 183,500 tons (6.7 million bushels), with unknown destinations picking up 82,800 tons and Japan purchasing 35,200 tons. So far this marketing year, soybean sales are 1.348 billion bushels, compared to 1.319 billion this time last year. Sales of 838,900 tons (30.8 million bushels) for 2013/14 delivery were mostly to China (531,000 tons) and unknown destinations (180,000 tons).

Soybean meal came out at 131,200 tons, 58% more than the prior week and 30% above the four week average. Ecuador bought 62,200 tons and unknown destinations picked up 27,300 tons, while Colombia canceled on 25,300 tons. At this point in the marketing year, soybean meal sales are 8,924,000 tons, compared to 6,731,000 tons a year ago. Sales of 125,400 tons for 2013/14 delivery were mostly to unknown destinations (75,000 tons) and Vietnam (47,000 tons).

Soybean oil was reported at 9,600 tons, with South Korea purchasing 8,000 tons and Canada cancelling on 600 tons. Cumulative 2012/13 soybean oil sales are 837,100 tons, compared to 420,500 at this point in 2011/12.

Net beef sales totaled 20,400 tons. The listed buyers were Japan (6,200 tons), Hong Kong (5,400 tons), Mexico (4,400 tons), Canada (1,800 tons), and South Korea (1,800 tons). Vietnam canceled on 1,100 tons.

Net pork sales came out at 7,200 tons. The reported purchasers were Mexico (3,000 tons), Canada (800 tons), South Korea (800 tons), China (700 tons), and Hong Kong (700 tons).

Solid session for grains and oilseeds

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. The near term supply remains tight, there’s plenty of commercial interest, and China continues to be very interested in beans. That said – farmer selling has increased, allowing new crop to out gain old crop, and the trade expects large domestic and world crops. Soybean meal and oil were higher, following beans. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada sees 2013/14 soybean production at 4.465 million tons and projects canola at 14.100 million tons. USDA’s weekly export sales report is out Thursday at 8:30 AM Eastern/7:30 AM Central. Soybeans are pegged at 400,000 to 800,000 tons, meal is seen at 100,000 to 225,000 tons, and oil is placed at 0 to 15,000 tons.

Corn was higher on technical and commercial buying. China bought 360,000 tons of corn and unknown destinations picked up 180,000 tons, both U.S. origin for new crop delivery. Also, even if there was a record week to week increase in planting, there are a lot of concerns about the slow emergence. According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2013/14 domestic corn production should be up on the year at 13.800 million tons. Weekly U.S. corn export sales are expected to be between 200,000 and 500,000 tons. Ethanol futures were higher.

The wheat complex was mostly higher on speculative and technical buying. There’s some rain in the forecast for the hard red winter crop, but the longer term outlooks show more hot and dry weather on the way. Minneapolis was mostly firm as spring planting remains behind average and emergence is also slower than normal. European wheat was sharply higher on worries about weather in the U.S. and Black Sea region. Tunisia tendered for 67,000 tons of milling wheat and Algeria is in the market for 50,000 tons of milling wheat. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada projects 2013/14 all wheat production at 29.400 million tons, with the durum crop at 4.900 million tons. Weekly U.S. wheat sales are estimated at 400,000 to 700,000 tons.

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 22, 2013

Jul. corn closed at $6.58 and 1/2, up 18 and 1/2 cents
Jul. soybeans closed at $14.94 and 1/4, up 16 cents
Jul. soybean meal closed at $440.60, up $1.90
Jul. soybean oil closed at 49.64, up 16 points
Jul. wheat closed at $6.88 and 1/2, up 8 cents
Jun. live cattle closed at $120.00, down $1.10
Jun. lean hogs closed at $94.55, up $2.15
Jul. crude oil closed at $94.28, down $1.90
Jul. cotton closed at 83.42, down 44 points
Jun. Class III milk closed at $18.10, up 4 cents
Jun. gold closed at $1,367.40, down $10.20
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 15,307.17, down 80.41 points

Pork, chicken supplies larger than expected

According to USDA, the supplies of red meat and poultry at the end of April were up on the month and year, with pork and chicken both topping pre-report estimates.

On April 30, 2013, pork in cold storage was 698.816 million pounds, up 8% on the month and 6% on the year, a new end of April record and considerably larger than the average guess of 658.5 million pounds, via Dow Jones Newswires. That bigger than expected number for pork is primarily due to slow export demand.

Beef came out at 510.010 million pounds, slightly lower than the previous month and down 2% from last year, when analysts were anticipating supplies would be just about unchanged from a year ago. The average estimate was 517.7 million pounds.

The total amount of red meat in cold storage was pegged at 1.236 billion pounds, an increase of 5% on the month and 3% on the year.

Chicken in cold storage was reported at 668.796 million pounds, 8% more than last month and 11% larger than last year, and above the average estimate of 640 million pounds.

Poultry totaled 1.130 billion pounds, up 11% on the month and 8% on the year.

USDA’s red meat and poultry livestock numbers are out Thursday at 3 PM Eastern/2 PM Central.