Seasonally warm, moisture pattern for the Heartland

During the next couple of days, Southwestern moisture will spill across the southern Plains and interact with a cold front. As a result, storm-total rainfall could reach 2 to 5 inches from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Later, heavy showers will spread across the remainder of the Southeast. Farther east, locally heavy showers and thunderstorms will end by mid-week along the Atlantic Seaboard, where additional rainfall could total 1 to 3 inches. Elsewhere, hot, dry weather will persist in the Northwest, while cool, mostly dry weather will cover the Midwest.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for near- to above-normal temperatures nationwide, except for cooler-than-normal conditions across parts of the interior Southeast. Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall in most areas from the Pacific Coast to the Plains will contrast with generally wetter-than-normal along and east of the Mississippi River.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Cool weather dominates the Heartland

Across the Corn Belt, cool, dry weather prevails, except for some lingering showers in the Great Lakes region. Tuesday morning’s temperatures fell to near 50° across the northern Corn Belt, where concerns persist with regard to crop developmental delays. Nevertheless, U.S. soybeans—72% good to excellent on July 13—have been rated higher this late in the season only once in the last two decades: 73% good to excellent on August 8, 2004.

On the Plains, unusually cool weather covers the north-central U.S., but showers are overspreading parts of Montana. Tuesday morning’s low temperatures locally dipped below 40°F in the Dakotas. Farther south, rain is returning to the southern Plains, further aiding rangeland, pastures, and summer crops.

In the South, a band of showers and thunderstorms—in the vicinity of a cold front—stretches from the central Appalachians into eastern Texas. Additional showers are scattered across Florida. The rain is beneficial for pastures and summer crops. On July 13, less than half of the pastures were rated good to excellent—mostly due to short-term dryness—in Kentucky, Virginia, and the Carolinas.

In the West, recent lightning strikes have sparked several wildfires in Oregon and neighboring areas. Hot, dry conditions persist in the Northwest. Meanwhile, monsoon shower activity has become more widespread in the Four Corners States, resulting in reduced irrigation requirements, revived rangelands, and drought relief.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

Near-ideal weather continues across much of the Corn Belt

Across the Corn Belt, dry weather, abundant soil moisture, and near- to below-normal temperatures remain nearly ideal for corn and soybeans. On July 6, nearly one-quarter (24%) of the U.S. soybeans had begun to bloom, while 15% of the corn was Silking. Dry weather also favors soft red winter wheat harvesting.

On the Plains, scattered showers and thunderstorms are maintaining generally favorable conditions for summer crops. However, overnight rainfall caused local flooding in south-central Kansas, while wet conditions continue to hamper the winter wheat harvest across portions of the central Plains.

In the South, heavy showers are developing in parts of southern Texas, while widely scattered showers dot the remainder of the region. Rain is especially beneficial in the southern Atlantic region, portions of which have trended dry in recent weeks.

In the West, hot, dry weather in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington contrasts with near- to below-normal temperatures across the southern half of the region. Widely scattered, monsoon-related showers continue to provide limited drought relief in the Great Basin and the Southwest.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

A big cool-off for the Heartland

A somewhat cooler weather pattern across the eastern half of the U.S. will be replaced by a weekend return to heat in the South. Later, a strong surge of cool air will arrive across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Showers will linger through week’s end in the southern Atlantic region, where additional rainfall could locally reach 2 to 4 inches. Farther west, showers and locally severe thunderstorms will return to the Midwest in conjunction with the push of cool air, with rainfall expected to range from 1 to 3 inches in numerous locations. Elsewhere, little or no rain will fall during the next 5 days across the southern Plains and the Pacific Coast States, with record-setting heat expected in the latter region.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures from the northern and central Plains eastward to the northern and mid-Atlantic States, while warmer-than-normal weather will prevail across the West and Deep South. Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall in the western Gulf Coast region and from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes region will contrast with wetter-than-normal conditions in the Great Basin and from the Four Corners States eastward to the southern Atlantic region.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Nearly ideal weather across the Corn Belt

Across the Corn Belt, cool, mostly dry weather is nearly ideal for pastures and summer crops, as well as soft red winter wheat harvesting. On July 6, at least half of the pastures were rated in good to excellent condition in every Midwestern State, ranging from 52% in Nebraska to 91% in Wisconsin.

On the Plains, thundershowers stretch across Oklahoma. The showers separate warm, humid conditions in Texas from cool, dry weather farther north, where winter wheat maturation and harvesting continues. On the northern Plains, rangeland and pastures were rated more than 80% good to excellent on July 6 in the Dakotas.

In the South, scattered showers and thunderstorms stretch from Virginia to Arkansas. Rain is still needed in parts of the southern Atlantic States, where topsoil moisture has been diminishing and is currently rated 60% very short to short in South Carolina.

In the West, widely scattered showers in the Great Basin and Four Corners States are heaviest in parts of southern Arizona. Meanwhile, hot, dry conditions persist in northern California and the Northwest. On July 6, topsoil moisture was rated 63% very short to short in Washington.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

A much cooler pattern ahead for the Heartland

A push of cool air across the Plains and Midwest will maintain generally favorable conditions for summer crops, especially those moving through the temperature- and moisture-sensitive reproductive stage of development. By week’s end, however, heat will return to areas from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Meanwhile, persistently hot, mostly dry weather will continue to dominate the Northwest. In the Southwest, monsoon showers will help to suppress temperatures and provided some drought relief. Five-day rainfall totals could reach 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts, in parts of the Southeast and from the Four Corners States northeastward across portions of the northern and central Plains and the Midwest. In contrast, little or no rain will fall across the south-central U.S., including Texas.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures across the northern and central Plains and Midwest, while hotter-than-normal weather will cover the West and Deep South. Meanwhile, near- to above-normal rainfall across the majority of the U.S. will contrast with drier-than-normal conditions in the western Gulf Coast region and from the Pacific Northwest into the upper Midwest.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Winter wheat harvest a bit delayed

Across the Corn Belt, cool, dry, breezy weather prevails across the upper Midwest. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms stretch from Michigan to southern Missouri, in conjunction with a cold front. The rain is maintaining abundant moisture reserves for corn and soybeans, but hampering winter wheat harvesting.

On the Plains, scattered showers are affecting central portions of the region, mainly Kansas. Elsewhere, cool, dry weather on the northern Plains contrasts with lingering heat in Texas. On July 6, the winter wheat harvest ranged from 13 to 18 percentage points behind the 5-year average pace in Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska.

In the South, showers and thunderstorms in advance of a cold front are pushing across portions of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Elsewhere, hot, humid weather prevails. Most pastures and crops remain well-watered, but short-term dryness has begun to develop in parts of the Southeast. On July 6, at least half of the pastures were rated in good to excellent condition in every Southeastern State except South Carolina (40%).

In the West, hot, dry weather in California and the Northwest contrasts with widely scattered showers in the Great Basin and the Southwest. Crop conditions have deteriorated in parts of the Northwest, with more than one-quarter of Washington’s winter wheat (28%) and spring wheat (29%) rated very poor to poor on July 6.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)

A cool-off for the Heartland

Hot, mostly dry weather will persist through week’s end in California and the Northwest, but cooler air will briefly overspread the Plains and Midwest. The push of cool air will be preceded by widespread showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the South and East. During the second half of the week, showers and thunderstorms will accompany a return to warm weather across the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest. Elsewhere, monsoon showers will continue in the Four Corners States, but little or no rain will fall across Texas. Five-day rainfall amounts could reach 1 to 3 inches in the Southeast and Southwest, while parts of the upper Midwest may receive an inch or more.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures across the northern and central Plains and Midwest, while hotter-than-normal weather will cover the West and Deep South.  Meanwhile, near- to above-normal rainfall across the majority of the U.S. will contrast with drier-than-normal conditions in the western Gulf Coast region and from the Pacific Northwest into the upper Midwest.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

A wet pattern for parts of the Corn Belt

Very warm weather will dominate many areas of the country for the remainder of the week, although a modest surge of cool air will arrive across the Plains and Midwest. Below-normal temperatures will also affect portions of the Southwest due to cloudiness and showers associated with monsoon onset. In contrast, heat will be especially persistent in the Northwest. Meanwhile, showers in the vicinity of a cold front could result in 1- to 3-inch rainfall totals, with locally higher amounts, across the eastern half of the U.S. Similar amounts can be expected in the Southwest, but little or no rain will fall through week’s end across California, the High Plains, and the Northwest.

Looking ahead, the 6- to 10-day outlook calls for warmer-than-normal weather nationwide, except for near-normal temperatures in the Midwestern and Mid-Atlantic States. Meanwhile, wetter-than-normal conditions in the Four Corners region and east of the Mississippi River will contrast with near- to below-normal rainfall across the remainder of the country.

5-Day Precipitation Totals

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Near ideal weather pattern across most of the Corn Belt

Across the Corn Belt, scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany a push of slightly cooler air. Hot weather lingers, however, across the southern Corn Belt. Overall growing conditions remain mostly favorable for Midwestern corn and soybeans. From New Boston, Illinois, downstream to Burlington, Iowa, the Mississippi River recently crested at its third-highest level on record, behind 1993 and 2008.

On the Plains, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from Kansas northward are causing minor delays in winter wheat harvesting and other fieldwork. Topsoil moisture remains mostly favorable for pastures, rangeland, and summer crops, although hot, dry weather has recently returned to the southern High Plains.

In the South, hot, humid, mostly dry weather favors fieldwork and a rapid pace of summer crop development. Scattered showers are mostly confined to Florida’s peninsula.

In the West, monsoon showers are providing limited drought relief, mainly in Arizona and the southern Great Basin. In contrast, hot, dry weather is maintaining heavy irrigation demands and stressing rangeland, pastures, and rain-fed crops in California and the Northwest.

Morning Low Temperature Plot

Weather Alerts

Forecast High Temperatures (National)