A pork analyst still has fourth quarter concerns about hog prices. Steve Meyer, Vice President for Pork Analysis with EMI Analytics tells Brownfield that 2016 should like 2015, “We’ve got prices up in the mid-70s on the summer markets and in fact futures have bumped $80 here in the last month or so. We think there are some prices opportunities. You know, our first quarter prices are going to be just about right, even though we had a lousy January. It looks like February and March are going to be all right.”
But, it’s that fourth quarter concern that prices could drop to around $60 on a carcass weight basis – which would put most producers in the red, “When you see October futures at $68 and December at $63, we think those are prices you should be taking some of and get some hogs priced. We really think these hogs in the upper-70s for the summer are probably really good pricing opportunities, too. I don’t see cash beating those by much if at all.”
Meyer says if the pork industry gets into a capacity crunch as expected this fall, that could lower prices further. Meyer spoke at the 2016 Illinois Pork Expo.
AUDIO: Interview with Steve Meyer