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Corn, soybean estimates top average expectations

The USDA’s first field based estimates of 2015 U.S. corn and soybean production were larger than what analysts were expecting. Overall, the numbers indicate less damage than expected from the inclement weather during portions of the growing season.

As of August 1st, the USDA projects corn at 13.686 billion bushels with an average yield of 168.8 bushels per acre. If realized, that’d be the second highest average yield and third largest crop on record. The USDA reports the objective yield data indicates the second highest number of ears on record in the surveyed states. Before the report, analysts were expecting corn to be 13.332 billion bushels with an average yield of 164.7 bushels per acre. Harvested area for 2015 is seen at 81.101 million acres. In 2014, U.S. corn production was 14.216 billion bushels with an average yield of 171.0 bushels per acre and harvested area of 83.136 million acres.

Soybeans are seen at 3.916 billion bushels with an average yield of 46.9 bushels per acre. The USDA is expecting record average yields in a number of states, including Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Analysts, on average, were projecting soybeans at 3.742 billion bushels with an average yield of 44.8 bushels per acre. Harvested area for 2015 is estimated at 83.549 million acres with planted area at 84.3 million. The USDA resurveyed soybean producers in Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri. In 2014, U.S. soybean production was 3.969 billion bushels with an average yield of 47.8 bushels per acre and harvested area of 83.061 million acres.

All wheat production is expected to be 2.136 billion bushels with an average yield of 44.1 bushels per acre. In 2014, all wheat production was 2.026 billion bushels with an average yield of 43.7 bushels per acre.

Winter wheat is estimated at 1.438 billion bushels with an average yield of 43.2 bushels per acre and harvested area of 33.329 million acres. Michigan is expected to post a record average yield. All of those are above the 2014 totals of 1.378 billion bushels with an average yield of 42.6 bushels per acre and harvested area of 32.304 million acres. By type, this year’s hard red winter crop is seen at 856 million bushels, with soft red at 388.910 million and white winter wheat at 193.368 million.

Spring wheat is projected at 620.981 million bushels with an average yield of 47 bushels per acre and harvested area of 13.217 million acres. If realized, Minnesota’s average yield would be a new all-time high. In 2014, spring wheat totaled 595.038 million bushels with an average yield of 46.7 bushels per acre and harvested area of 12.740 million acres. By type, hard red spring is seen at 575.977 million bushels, with white spring at 45.004 million.

Durum production is seen at 76.780 million bushels with an average yield of 40.2 bushels per acre and harvested area of 1.908 million acres. In 2014, U.S. durum production was 53.087 million bushels with an average yield of 39.7 bushels per acre and harvested area of 1.337 million acres.

Estimates for selected crops in Brownfield states:

Illinois: Corn: 2.004 billion bushels, compared to 2.35 billion in 2014; average yield of 172 bushels per acre, compared to 200 a year ago; harvested area of 11.65 million acres, compared to 11.75 million last year; Soybeans: 534.24 million bushels, compared to 547.68 million in 2014; average yield of 53 bushels per acre, compared to 56 a year ago; harvested area of 10.08 million acres, compared to 9.78 million last year; Winter Wheat: 36.4 million bushels, compared to 44.89 million in 2014; average yield of 65 bushels per acre, compared to 66 a month ago and 67 a year ago; harvested area of 560,000 acres, compared to 670,000 last year

Indiana: Corn: 867.420 million bushels, compared to 1.085 billion in 2014; average yield of 158 bushels per acre, compared to 188 a year ago; harvested area of 5.49 million acres, compared to 5.77 million last year; Soybeans: 278.81 million bushels, compared to 307.44 million in 2014; average yield of 49 bushels per acre, compared to 56 a year ago; harvested area of 5.69 million acres, compared to 5.49 million last year; Winter Wheat: 21.35 million bushels, compared to 25.46 million in 2014; average yield of 70 bushels per acre, compared to 72 a month ago and 76 a year ago; harvested area of 305,000 acres, compared to 335,000 last year

Iowa: Corn: 2.434 billion bushels, compared to 2.367 billion in 2014; average yield of 183 bushels per acre, compared to 178 a year ago; harvested area of 13.3 million acres, unchanged from last year; Soybeans: 515.84 million bushels, compared to 505.73 million in 2014; average yield of 52 bushels per acre, compared to 51.5 a year ago; harvested area of 9.92 million acres, compared to 9.82 million last year

Michigan: Corn: 351.45 million bushels, compared to 355.81 million in 2014; average yield of 165 bushels per acre, compared to 161 a year ago; harvested area of 2.13 million acres, compared to 2.21 million last year; Soybeans: 96.14 million bushels, compared to 92.02 million in 2014; average yield of 46 bushels per acre, compared to 43 a year ago; harvested area of 2.09 million acres, compared to 2.14 million last year; Winter Wheat: 40 million bushels, compared to 35.89 million in 2014; average yield of 80 bushels per acre, compared to 76 a month ago and 74 a year ago; harvested area of 500,000 acres, compared to 485,000 last year

Minnesota: Corn: 1.426 billion bushels, compared to 1.178 billion in 2014; average yield of 184 bushels per acre, compared to 156 a year ago; harvested area of 7.75 million acres, compared to 7.55 million last year; Soybeans: 365.76 million bushels, compared to 305.34 million in 2014; average yield of 48 bushels per acre, compared to 42 a year ago; harvested area of 7.62 million acres, compared to 7.27 million last year; Spring Wheat: 102.4 million bushels, compared to 64.9 million in 2014; average yield of 64 bushels per acre, compared to 62 a month ago and 55 a year ago; harvested area of 1.6 million acres, compared to 1.18 million last year

Missouri: Corn: 457.5 million bushels, compared to 628.68 million in 2014; average yield of 150 bushels per acre, compared to 186 a year ago; harvested area of 3.05 million acres, compared to 3.38 million last year; Soybeans: 188.1 million bushels, compared to 260.4 million in 2014; average yield of 38 bushels per acre, compared to 46.5 a year ago; harvested area of 4.95 million acres, compared to 5.6 million last year; Winter Wheat: 38.34 million bushels, compared to 42.92 million in 2014; average yield of 54 bushels per acre, compared to 56 a month ago and 58 a year ago; harvested area of 710,000 acres, compared to 740,000 last year

Nebraska: Corn: 1.664 billion bushels, compared to 1.602 billion in 2014; average yield of 187 bushels per acre, compared to 179 a year ago; harvested area of 8.9 million acres, compared to 8.95 million last year; Soybeans: 288.4 million bushels, compared to 288.9 million in 2014; average yield of 56 bushels per acre, compared to 54 a year ago; harvested area of 5.15 million acres, compared to 5.35 million last year; Winter Wheat: 52 million bushels, compared to 71.05 million in 2014; average yield of 40 bushels per acre, compared to 42 a month ago and 49 a year ago; harvested area of 1.3 million acres, compared to 1.45 million last year

Ohio: Corn: 547.68 million bushels, compared to 610.72 million in 2014; average yield of 168 bushels per acre, compared to 176 a year ago; harvested area of 3.26 million acres, compared to 3.47 million last year; Soybeans: 239.52 million bushels, compared to 254.1 million in 2014; average yield of 48 bushels per acre, compared to 52.5 a year ago; harvested area of 4.99 million acres, compared to 4.84 million last year; Winter Wheat: 32.5 million bushels, compared to 40.33 million in 2014; average yield of 65 bushels per acre, compared to 70 a month ago and 74 a year ago; harvested area of 500,000 acres, compared to 545,000 last year

South Dakota: Corn: 760 million bushels, compared to 787.36 million in 2014; average yield of 160 bushels per acre, compared to 148 a year ago; harvested area of 4.75 million acres, compared to 5.32 million last year; Soybeans: 227.7 million bushels, compared to 229.95 million in 2015; average yield of 45 bushels per acre, unchanged from a year ago; harvested area of 5.06 million acres, compared to 5.11 million last year; Winter Wheat: 40.32 million bushels, compared to 59.4 million in 2014; average yield of 42 bushels per acre, compared to 41 a month ago and 55 a year ago; harvested area of 960,000 acres, compared to 1.08 million last year; Spring Wheat: 64.39 million bushels, compared to 71.68 million in 2014; average yield of 47 bushels per acre, compared to 46 a month ago and 56 a year ago; harvested area of 1.37 million acres, compared to 1.28 million last year

Wisconsin: Corn: 505.3 million bushels, compared to 485.16 million in 2014; average yield of 163 bushels per acre, compared to 156 a year ago; harvested area of 3.1 million acres, compared to 3.11 million last year; Soybeans: 90.24 million bushels, compared to 78.76 million in 2014; average yield of 48 bushels per acre, compared to 44 a year ago; harvested area of 1.88 million acres, compared to 1.79 million last year; Winter Wheat: 17.25 million bushels, compared to 16.25 million in 2014; average yield of 75 bushels per acre, compared to 72 a month ago and 65 a year ago; harvested area of 230,000 acres, compared to 250,000 last year