Market News

Weather sends soybeans, corn lower

 

Soybeans were lower on fund and speculative selling. Forecasts for this week generally look non-threatening for most of the Midwest. Domestic demand remains solid and there’s a long way to go until the crop is made, but there are concerns about export demand, especially from China. China has been buying beans recently, but mostly from Brazil, leaving U.S. new crop export commitments to Beijing at about half where they were this time last year. Also, a key Chinese manufacturing index recently hit a two year low. ADM is projecting a big year to year decline in Brazil’s soybeans margins, citing lower prices. As of Sunday, the USDA reports 81% of U.S. soybeans are blooming, compared to the five year average of 83%, and 54% are at the pod setting stage, compared to 49% on average. 63% of the crop is rated good to excellent, up 1% on the week. Soybean meal and oil were lower, following beans.

Corn was lower on fund and speculative selling. Corn’s also watching the weather with seasonal temperatures and moderate rainfall in the forecast. Contracts have been in a sideways pattern recently and could stay that way until the August 12th USDA numbers. Corn’s also keeping an eye on Chinese export demand, but Beijing has frequently been turning to more closely located and cheaper supplies. The USDA reports 90% of corn is silking, compared to 89% on average, and 29% is at the dough making stage, compared to 31% on average. 70% of corn is in good to excellent condition, unchanged from last week, but with 1% moving from good to excellent. Ethanol futures were lower.

The wheat complex was mostly lower on fund and speculative selling. The winter wheat harvest is close to wrapping up in some areas and spring wheat is in good shape. The fundamentals remain bearish with a large available world supply and slow export demand for U.S. wheat. For winter wheat, 93% of the crop is harvested, compared to 85% on average, with Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Texas officially complete. For spring wheat, 8% is harvested, compared to 11% on average. 70% of the crop is called good to excellent, down 1%. Japan is tendering for 120,000 tons of feed wheat and South Korea is in the market for 138,000 tons of feed wheat.