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Similar outcomes expected in farm tools

Programs ICONFarmers have the option of choosing between two online tools to help them determine which commodity program to sign up for – the Price Loss Coverage or Agricultural Risk Coverage.  But could the two tools contradict each other? We asked Jonathan Coppess with the University of Illinois – where one of the online tools was developed.

While he says they may produce slightly different results for the programs, he expects the results to be similar, “At the end of the day you’re running the same program calculations, for ARC and PLC, so they’re calculating payments the same. It’s really going into the assumptions and the way it’s modeled and some of the differences of information. They should be within some sort of ballpark of each other.”

Coppess says the U of I tool uses statistical modeling for forecasting yields based around the “expected yield” entered, the APH and the 2008 to 2012 yield history and history of the country.  The Texas A&M/FAPRI-MU model requires growers to enter multiple years of yields, both historical and forecasted.

Even with the tools, Coppess tells Brownfield, there are some assumptions that have to be made about the unknown, “The unfortunate reality is that farmer are being asked to make a decision for five years and there’s no way to know what’s going to happen.”

University of Illinois FARM DOC farm program tool

Texas A&M/FAPRI-MU farm program tool

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